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《看中國》香港頻道
2695粉絲
18 次觀看·2023年12月15日
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He didn't say yes, he didn't say no.
Someone asked him every day, I don't know where he answered this.
The last time the U.S. Federal Reserve thought about it,
you can't think of it, right?
I'll send you a fake message.
There are a total of 75 basements in this three-time analysis.
I see it like Wall Street,
how to say, the reaction is good.
I see that the stock is new, the stock market is new.
What do you think is the reaction of this market?
Do you think it's too excited?
It's a little bit over.
Because before the ceremony,
in fact, the market expected that it would be reduced by about twice next year.
If you give it one more time,
then the market will retreat by 500.
In fact, what should be reflected is almost reflected.
For example, before the ceremony, the U.S. dollar was at 1.04.
Now it's at 1.10.
It's only three times, right?
The whole process, from the increase to the reduction next year,
it is said that from the U.S. dollar from 1.07 to 1.01,
there is a proportion.
I don't think there is much room for further reflection,
unless the result is really big.
But if the result is big,
that is to say, the economy is likely to be very bad.
Then the market will not react so directly.
So I think this reaction is more or less.
And this reaction is purely based on the statement of the Federal Reserve.
In fact, will the Federal Reserve really do this?
Because you can see that the recent statement of the Federal Reserve
is not consistent with its previous comparison.
Now the market is not really so breakthrough.
To be honest, it seems that it has been standing still since it fell to 4.
So I don't know if the whole situation is as optimistic as it is now.
Everyone is looking forward to it.
If it really reflects,
will the U.S. dollar explosion no longer affect the currency of other countries,
even the economy of Hong Kong?
Is there anything too early to talk about these things at this moment?
The U.S. dollar has no right or wrong.
You are talking about whether the U.S. dollar is stronger or weaker.
Even if you fall a little, it is still high.
To be honest, even if the U.S. dollar falls to more than 90,
even more than 80, it is not very low.
So this has nothing to do with right or wrong.
But it is a common phenomenon that the U.S. dollar is weak on a regular basis.
If the economy is worse next year,
the U.S. dollar may not be very light.
If the U.S. dollar is light,
not only the U.S. dollar will be light,
but also other countries such as Europe will be light.
When everyone is light,
the impact on the color difference may not be very big.
Now the market is so high,
will the basic factors be met?
Because some economies have already begun to shrink.
So the direction of the U.S. should not be very far away.
It's still not up.
There are some things that may not come out yet.
The whole situation can't be optimistic next year.
I think it's a big good.
Because the market is broken now.
But when the basic factors are not bad,
if the market is in good shape,
it may go back to a very large scale.
But in fact, the U.S. dollar was originally anti-inflation.
Now the U.S. dollar wants to pick up the U.S. dollar.
Is it true that the U.S. dollar has won the anti-inflation?
It seems that the proportion of the U.S. dollar has not yet seen inflation.
I didn't say that.
You can still say that inflation has not yet seen inflation.
But your dot plot is to say that there will be a three-day reduction next year.
The proportion of the U.S. dollar is not consistent with the dot plot.
And even if you say that the dot plot is the whole situation,
this view is also a bit rough.
Is it possible to say that it can be done so early?
In fact, the main reason for the decline in inflation is food, energy,
non-hygienic items, and some mechanical factors.
These are not very long-term declines.
In fact, if you look at the inflation of some parts of the service,
there are not many declines.
It has been like this for a long time.
I don't know how it got the conclusion that inflation can be done so quickly.
If it is not because of the decline in inflation,
it means that the economy is actually turning bad.
To be honest, this is a big opportunity.
Because now you see that the economy around you,
for example, the UK's GDP has begun to shrink.
Some places have shrunk before.
Some areas, such as investment and production, have also shrunk for a while.
Now even in the United States, for example,
there are some uncertainties in terms of employment.
You can see that there are a lot fewer vacancies recently.
Some big companies are starting to fire people,
that is, thousands of people are fired.
In fact, this is not to say that there are no signs to look for.
It's just that at the end of the year, the market doesn't seem to want to do business.
So it's just talking about good things on one side.
The atmosphere is very optimistic.
But in fact, what is in front of you is not very important.
But it is clear that the market is not as optimistic as the stock market.
Can you say that the market is too high?
Does this mean that next year ...
Some are over, some are over for the basic factors.
So, as I said just now,
there will be a correction after the New Year.
The market is like this.
Sometimes there will be some waves in some places.
If you are covered by the wave or the atmosphere,
you didn't pay attention to the basic factors,
it would be more dangerous.
Does this mean that next year's U.S. economy,
housing, stocks, bonds, etc.
are all in a cautious atmosphere?
I think you have to be careful about rising risks.
You really have to pay attention to the stock market.
Of course, the interest rate is also a factor.
The interest rate has risen a lot recently.
The interest rate will rise when it is in danger.
I don't think it's a bad situation.
But for example, you said that the economy is clearly slowing down.
Even a mild decline, let's say so.
At least you are not very compatible with the current market.
The current market is like a big bull market.
Even if the market doesn't fall a lot,
it will fall by 20% or so.
That's enough, it's not a small number.
So the risk is quite obvious.
Especially now that the bond market is so strong,
it will be reduced in March and May.
If the bond market is so close,
it will be reduced in the future.
It's not a good situation.
A normal good economy should be accelerated,
not reduced.
What about Hong Kong?
So there is no effect at all.
Because you said that Hong Kong will correct this statement in a few years.
Hong Kong follows the foreign exchange.
Of course, you always say that Hong Kong does not follow the foreign exchange.
It's just a P.E.
Don't worry about it.
It's hard to follow the cost of funds.
For example, the color of the bank transfer is roughly followed.
As you can see, there are some ups and downs in the U.S.
Hong Kong will continue to fall.
But the economy also follows.
As the foreign exchange slows down,
the latest investigation into the import and export of foreign exchange is also optimistic.
When you see that the foreign trade is bad,
the direct impact on Hong Kong will be quite obvious.
I don't think we are particularly worse than the foreign trade.
But if you have a chance to go down at the same time, it is very high.
If the economic growth of the outside world and the national indicators go down,
Hong Kong will also follow.
The European Central Bank seems to be a hawk.
It didn't say that the color of the bank transfer should remain unchanged.
What do you think about this?
Because its financing, loans and deposits are unchanged.
What information does this show?
In fact, it's the same as the U.S.
Both sides remain unchanged.
If the U.S. didn't come up with a dot plot,
to be honest, just listen to Powell.
It's almost the same.
It's just that the currency is not done yet.
There is still a chance to raise interest.
Powell said so.
But if you make a dot plot, it will mess up the situation.
The whole world thought it was a good match.
They thought it was fast, so they had to cut a lot.
This thing is a bit bad this time.
It's a bit of a mess.
There are not many plots in Europe.
When you just listen to him,
his tone doesn't change so much.
It suddenly changed.
In fact, many banks are the same.
Now the family wants to stop.
Then maybe take the time to see if the economy will turn bad and then think about reducing it.
In fact, everyone has a similar view.
If you look at the interest rate,
everyone may start to reduce interest rates in the first and second quarters of next year.
In fact, the overall view is very consistent.
In other words, there will be no big differences in the direction of European and American policies.
So everyone is thinking about it.
Why did the U.S. put a dot plot over there?
Britain also put a dot plot over here.
I was wondering if the pound would rise.
If you say that, the pound won't rise.
It's still a fake.
Britain is also suspicious.
Britain is also looking for a way to reduce interest rates very quickly.
It may reduce interest rates in the second quarter of next year.
It's the same as the U.S.
When everyone is looking at the second quarter of interest rates,
the inflation is not due to the difference in interest rates.
Everyone's opinion is the same.
For example, if it doesn't move now, it may have a chance to reduce interest rates in the second quarter of next year.
The difference in interest rates is not moving.
The difference in interest rates during the period is not moving.
It's just that the market is rising.
When the market is rising, everyone will invest in US dollars and then go to the market to buy things.
When the US dollar falls, of course everything will rise.
It's not that the U.S. dollar will rise, but the U.S. dollar will rise.
It's very natural.
It has nothing to do with the U.S. dollar or the European Union.
It's just that the market wants to invest in US dollars.
Can you invest in US dollars?
I invested in US dollars in 2011.
But I think it's too late to go down.
Even if it goes down, it's too late.
Last time, the Dow Jones fell to 99.
It's still the same.
Now, before the end of the year, the relatively good atmosphere can be maintained.
If the stock market is OK, then the U.S. dollar will continue to fall.
If the U.S. dollar falls to 101, 100, or 99, I think it will be the end of the year.
But after the end of the year, when there is a new stock market, it may turn around.
Let's talk about Hong Kong.
I saw the media said that from January to September this year,
there are 90 listed companies in January that have turned their interest rates into interest.
You can't even talk about one company.
But if there is no interest, the interest rate will fall to 99%.
IPO is the worst in the past 22 years.
More than 30 companies have gone bankrupt.
Now we can see that the stock market is going up and down.
Now everyone is very concerned about whether Hong Kong is the international financial center.
Bloomberg also said that some Chinese officials want to build a big market in Hong Kong.
They want to maintain the status of Hong Kong's financial center and do something.
What do you think of this series of news?
The interest rate decline is not only in Hong Kong.
It's the same in the U.S.
You can see that many listed companies in the U.S. have a decline in interest rates.
It's going down year by year.
So this is a global phenomenon.
Whether it's a decline in interest rates, it's a global phenomenon.
It's very consistent, there's no difference.
Of course, if the interest rate continues to decline, the stock market will continue to rise.
Of course, there are people who are against it.
If the U.S. says so.
For example, in Hong Kong, the interest rate is declining, but the stock market is still going down.
It's a corresponding reflection.
As for the international financial center, that's another thing.
It's a long-term phenomenon.
Hong Kong has been without the international market for a long time.
Look at the main board, how many things are international.
In the past, there was foreign investment.
Now the foreign investment is gone, and there is not much foreign investment.
If you count the number of foreign investment offices, there is not much difference.
But there may be no business, no people, or the market value is very small.
You can see that things are really not international.
If it's not international, there's nothing to do, you have to leave.
There are many reasons to leave, as everyone knows, I have said many times.
If the Beijing government wants Hong Kong to maintain the position of the international financial center,
other foreign or international companies also know that this position is facing a serious challenge.
What does the Beijing government have to do to make Hong Kong return to the international market?
What to do? You yourself are not international now.
Your major premise and my major premise are different.
Your major premise is to maintain the international market.
My major premise is to tell you that you have not been international for a long time.
You have nothing to do now,
so you can do some business with the so-called communist camp.
Do business with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
You can also do business with these places.
Argentina used to say that gold, diamond, silver, and steel, and now people also invest in US dollars.
If you pull your camp, add up the territory, there will be a global ratio.
You can also say that you are international.
These places have no money, they are poor, so you invest in them.
On the territory, we occupy a lot of land, a lot of land, a lot of proportionate area.
But in fact, there is not much money to invest in these places.
Now the most interesting thing to think about is the Middle East.
In the Middle East, there are two countries, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Now there are some institutions.
It used to be very close to the United States.
Now there are some institutions that have become very close to the United States.
But they are very good.
The money will not be brought here randomly.
You have been talking for so long.
I remember last year, I don't know if it was the Chief Executive or the Minister of Finance who went there.
He said that he had signed a lot of memorandums.
In fact, the Middle East is also very good.
He won't bring money here randomly.
You have to have a return, have something to sell.
You have to have a business first.
If you can't talk about it, the situation will be very bad.
The entire mainland economy will be in trouble soon.
How do you invest?
If you want people to invest, you have to have something first.
It's not just talking.
The latest political news, the political reality is that the Hong Kong Police and Security Bureau is now spying on more than five overseas Hong Kong people.
Hong Kong's dead.
What do you think?
He's gone.
This is just a posture.
To be honest, you are in the police station.
Those who have been arrested have been arrested.
You are now in the U.S. Department of Justice.
Those who have been arrested have been arrested.
I can't see if there is any way to bring them back.
Of course, they won't come back.
It's useless.
It's a waste of time.
It's just a high-profile statement to tell people what you're doing.
At the very least, you have to justify it.
You get a lot of money every year.
What do you need to do now?
There's nothing to do.
We've arrested, interrogated, and sentenced.
What else can we do?
There's nothing to do in Hong Kong.
Find something to do.
He's always high-profile.
