【＃精鋭論壇】中国の093原子力潜水艦が黄海で大事故を起こし、55人が亡くなったことを報じました。さらに、この情報の出所は英国の情報部門であること、多くの注目を集めたこの情報は本当なのか？ 2023-10-22 00:35

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Seiei Rondan. I'm your host, Rigun. The British media recently reported that the Chinese 093 nuclear submarine had a major accident at sea and 55 people were killed. In addition, it is said that this information came from the British intelligence department. When this report was broadcast, it attracted a lot of attention. Is this information true? The US-China submarine confrontation has actually been going on for a long time. What exactly is the conflict between these submarines? Recently, Taiwan has sunk its own submarine. What impact will this have on the situation at the Taiwan Strait in the future? Today, let's take a look at the Chinese submarine. In the studio, we have invited Mr. Kakkun, the editor-in-chief of Daikigen Jihou, and Mr. Sekisan, a commentator, as guests. In addition, Mr. Yousei, the former commander-in-chief of the Chinese navy who defected to the United States, is also participating online. Before the program, we recommend that you subscribe to our video site Gunjin World. Seiei Rondan is broadcast every Saturday on Gunjin World, so please support us. First of all, I would like to ask Mr. Kakkun. The report in the UK attracted a lot of attention, but what kind of report was it specifically? Also, what do you think about the credibility of this news? In fact, this information was released by Daily Mail in the UK. The report quoted a report from the British National Defense Information Agency. China's nuclear submarine 093-417 was caught in a trap set by the Communist Party of China, which caused an accident during a mission in the open sea on August 21. It is said that this accident was the result of being trapped in a trap set by China to prevent foreign submarines. The report also said that after being caught in a trap, there was a disruption to the submarine's oxygen supply system, causing a catastrophic accident. The submarine was unable to surface, and 55 crew members in the ship died instantly. There were 22 military officers, 7 military candidates, 9 officers, and 17 sailors, including Captain Setsu Eihou. The British Navy has currently refused to comment on this issue, and has neither approved nor denied it. In addition, in this article, the name Setsu Eihou has been translated, but the name of the captain has also been disclosed, so there seems to be something to it. Daily Mail is the second most-published newspaper in the UK, but their reports are suspected to be consistent. In the past, they have sent fake information, and their credibility is not very high. Their reports are mainly about office scandals and famous people's gossips, so their credibility as an official media is dubious. It seems that this news was also reported in French media recently. I would like to ask Mr. Yosei about this issue. What do you think about this report by the British media? Do you have any internal information? According to the report, the incident occurred on August 21. After this incident, I first decided that the nuclear submarine at the beginning was not a sea explosion from the movement of the sea. I also looked into some of the Hokkai fleet. I asked if there was anything special recently, and what was the situation with the Commander-in-Chief. The information I got was that the Commander-in-Chief had no problems and was currently arguing with the equipment department. Regarding the nuclear submarine incident, there may have been a problem with the equipment of the oxygen circulation system. I can judge from several other angles. Just two or three days after the incident, the Central Military Commission held a meeting on the equipment quality of the whole army. The Commander-in-Chief attended the meeting and emphasized the need to take responsibility for the safety and life of the soldiers and improve the quality of the equipment. From these analyzes, it seems certain that there was a failure in the nuclear submarine. It's a decisive thing that an accident happened, isn't it? This cannot be determined. Because the Central Military Commission does not withhold any information about the nuclear submarine. Therefore, we were able to conclude that there is a possibility that the oxygen supply system has failed from this phenomenon, and that the crew may have died from the failure. However, the day before yesterday, when the British newspaper announced it, my opinion on this matter changed. In addition, it is said that the 093417 submarine collided with the anti-ship network set up by China itself, but this is impossible. First of all, the nuclear submarine needs the approval of the navy to be launched. Of course, it is necessary to submit it to the Military Commission, and it must be reported to the headquarters of the Commander-in-Chief. Therefore, this plan is very carefully designed. If there is a place where obstacles are installed in your department, the public plan will not pass through it. Second, after the submarine is launched, the track will be monitored in seconds on the large screen of the command post. If the submarine is heading for an obstacle, the command post will never allow the submarine to head for the area without changing its course. Therefore, I think it is unlikely that the submarine will fall into the trap set by the Chinese military itself. After this news was broadcast, there was an even more unbelievable story. After the submarine collided with an obstacle, the power equipment in the submarine broke down, and the oxygen supply system stopped working. As a result, people who were short of oxygen in the submarine became addicted. As shown in the figure, the average depth of the sea is 44m, even with a small groove, it is 140m. And there is a common problem that people tend to overlook about submarines. There are two ways to escape from a submarine after an accident at sea. One is to use a capsule, a lifeboat with a maximum of 20 people. After people board the lifeboat, the lifeboat is separated from the hull of the submarine, floating on the sea surface, and waiting for help from outside. Another way is for the crew of the submarine to escape from the torpedo launchers. This is not only for the crew of the submarine, but also for the crew of the normal ship, and they will be trained many times. Now, let's take a look at the reported 44m submersible accident. In order to withstand the pressure, you need to fire the submarine, but the pressure rise at this depth is less than 0.3, which is the same pressure that the pilot receives in the cockpit, and it is a level that can be ignored. Ordinary people can withstand the pressure of 0.3. I don't think it's realistic to say that more than 50 people died in the submarine within 6 hours as a part of the unreliable part of this information. Fairy, you said that this information changed your mind earlier. So, do you think that this accident does not exist now? Or do you think it's due to other causes? First of all, I think this information is a lie. There are two reasons for this false information, one of which is that the Chinese government intentionally leaked it. The Chinese government deliberately leaked it to threaten the U.S. nuclear submarine, saying, I have a jamming device in this place. I'm just talking about possibilities, and this is the most likely. The other is that it's a scam, and the more you leak it, the more ridiculous it gets. It was the British newspaper that caught the rumors and leaked the scams. It is possible that the Chinese government bought the newspaper and spread the fake information, but they themselves will not admit it. Let's look at it from another perspective. In the case of the nuclear submarine, the UK has little to do with China, but Japan and the United States are most interested in it. However, there is no problem, and the U.S. Marine Corps, the USS America, and the Korean warships are still hiding there. Neither the United States nor Japan or any media has said anything about this matter. Everyone thinks this news is fake. Because the whole story contradicts the actual fact. The accident of the nuclear submarine is a big deal for the Navy, isn't it? If 55 people died at once, how would the Central Military Commission and the Provisional Government deal with it? It's not a serious accident, it's a particularly serious accident. Do you remember that the Type 035 normal power submarine sank in 2003? At that time, all of the Navy's commanders were dismissed. However, it was just a preparation to be dismissed in stages at the old normal power submarine. This time, more than 50 people died in the accident of the nuclear submarine, so from any angle, the severity is far superior to the accident of the Type 035 normal power submarine. So why is the commander-in-chief of the Hokkai fleet still working for him? Yes. As for the previous question, what is the commander-in-chief's situation? It seems to have some intention. Apart from other things, when the Navy commander and the commander-in-chief were dismissed in the incident in 2003, it is well known that the commander of the Hokkai fleet, Tei Ippei, was captured by the Fukusanbocho. Therefore, if 55 people died in the accident of this nuclear submarine, the commander-in-chief of the Hokkai fleet should also be held responsible. However, there is no movement in the Hokkai fleet at present. How can you explain this situation? And the information they leaked does not match military common sense at all. Thank you very much. I think Mr. Yosei did a very professional military analysis. I was able to gain a lot of knowledge about submarines. Well then, Mr. Seki. I heard that you took the entrance exam for a university submarine at that time. Considering the situation at that time, if you had passed, you might be the commander-in-chief of a submarine by now. You may have been on this submarine. Fortunately, it wasn't. Then, can you explain the overall ability and arrangement of Chinese submarines? We would like to know a little about this incident. When I submitted my college application, I actually applied to the submarine academy. I really applied, but I chose another school first, so I didn't enter the submarine academy. If I had chosen the submarine academy first, I might be the commander-in-chief of a submarine by now. I'm kidding. However, I have heard that the food at the submarine is the most delicious. Did you take the entrance exam at that time because you wanted to eat something delicious? I don't know about that, but working at a submarine is very difficult. The inside of the submarine is very harsh and very secluded. Think about it. You can't write a letter or make a phone call after entering the sea, and you can't make a cell phone call. It's completely isolated. And the living space is very narrow and very limited. Now, let's talk about the situation of Chinese submarines. As Mr. Yosei said, there are three levels in China, a normal power submarine, a nuclear power submarine, and a strategic nuclear power submarine. The number of Chinese submarines is the top in the world, and in my memory, it is the first place. There are many Chinese submarines, but the quality is not very good. Most of them are normal power submarines before, and the early Type 093 submarines are added to them, but the actual quality is not very high. I have seen the official documents of the US Navy before. They have said something like a joke. Their underwater sound detection device, sonar, is in Singapore. The reason why it is in Singapore is because Singapore is the base of the US Navy. The Chinese Navy sounds very clear as if it were hitting drums or drums just by leaving the South China Sea. It looks like a tractor has come out. Yes, a tractor has come out. It makes a rattling sound. For the Americans, what they are most worried about is not a normal nuclear power submarine for attack. A nuclear power submarine for attack goes out to battle and fights with a normal weapon. What they are most worried about is a launchable submarine with a large number of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in the strategic line. I read an article that the United States uses at least seven nuclear power submarines a year to monitor Chinese submarines. What do they mainly monitor? Is it a strategic line? Or is it another submarine? Of course, it is a strategic line. The mission of the US nuclear power submarine is to prevent the Chinese strategic line from entering the Pacific Ocean. The sea is very wide and deep, so once the submarine enters, it is immediately lost and no one knows where it is hidden. Currently, it is said that there are probably six Type 094 strategic lines in China. That's about the number that has been announced. Of course, the quality of the submarine is not particularly good, and it can be traced as before. Each submarine is equipped with 12 Julan-type intercontinental ballistic missiles. The missiles can hit very far, and each missile has about 3 to 4 bullets. In other words, if a nuclear power submarine escapes, it can fire 30 nuclear bombs at the United States. It's a very threatening situation for the United States. So how does the United States deal with it? They use satellites, electronic detectors, and water interferences to continuously monitor the movements of Chinese nuclear power submarines. In addition, many sonar systems are located in the water around Okinawa in the South China Sea, and they can be detected as soon as they pass through here. They are monitoring the movements of Chinese nuclear power submarines. This is a problem that Americans are most concerned about and paying attention to. The reason why American electronic detectors are frequently flying around the South China Sea is because the South China Sea is the base of China's strategic nuclear power submarines. Specifically, it is the Sanya Iron Port in the South China Sea. So the United States is most concerned about this area. Of course, from the map, most of China's coastlines are continental, and the sea is very shallow, so submarines cannot hide. Even if they hide in the water, from a satellite observation point of view, it doesn't change that we're looking at the fish in the washbasin. However, there is one exception. That is the South China Sea. If you leave the Sanwa of the South China Sea, you can dive as deep as 200 meters, and you can enter the Pacific Ocean through the Bashi Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines. For the United States, this area is particularly important, and the strait between the South China Sea and the Bashi Strait, that is, Taiwan to the Philippines, is the main battlefield of anti-submarines. Recently, I saw some new information. The U.S. military is preparing to build facilities on some small islands in the middle of the Bashi Strait to support the Philippines. This is clearly not a civilian facility, but a facility related to the war. Mr. Seki-san, it's a shame that you couldn't learn about submarines professionally. I think you've learned a lot about submarines on your own. Following Mr. Seki-san's analysis, I would like to ask Mr. Yosei to analyze it as well. In particular, the United States is still very wary of Chinese submarines. What is the situation of the competition between the U.S. and China's submarines? There are two bases for Chinese nuclear submarines. The first base in Tsingtao is probably less than 8,000 tons for an attack-type nuclear submarine. There is a Type 094 nuclear submarine in Aliuwan, Galiuwan, in the southeast. The Type 094 is basically over 10,000 tons, so it is inconvenient to have it in Tsingtao. That's why two nuclear bases are set up like this. After that, there are four modified Type 094A. The Type 094 is equipped with JL-2 and JL-2-12 nuclear missile launchers, and can be launched at targets over 8,000 km away. It's over 8,000 km. Now, in order to launch the JL-3, the Type 094A has been raised in height. Because the JL-3 is long. If the launch pad is raised, the JL-3 can be launched up to 12,000 km. The JL-3 is a submarine-launched version of the DF-41, the intercontinental ballistic missile. So, how can we effectively seal the Middle East? The United States is using an attack-type nuclear submarine. According to Mr. Ligon, the host, seven attack-type nuclear submarines have been stuck on the coast of China all year round, but this is accurate. It is unlikely that the number will decrease. The United States is currently building the latest strategic missile nuclear submarine, the Columbia-class, with a displacement of 28,000 tons. In order to replace the old Ohio-class and Los Angeles-class, 12 will be built. And the Seawolf-class is even more amazing. The most effective thing the US military has used against China is a nuclear submarine. I would like to ask Mr. Kakkun. In the Asia-Pacific region, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, etc., all countries are paying great attention to submarines. Recently, Australia seems to be preparing to buy submarines from the United States. Taiwan is particularly noteworthy. It seems that Taiwan has just built its own submarine and sunk it, but did Taiwan have a plan to build its own submarine? Taiwan's national submarine plan has been around for years. The Haikouen that sank the other day is currently under private operation. In other words, it will make a foreign country in Dokku and then introduce it to Taiwan. After that, internal electricity, sonar system, weapons, and equipment will be installed. It will be handed over to the Navy at the end of 2024, and it will be able to participate in naval operations in 2025. This is the first prototype of a Taiwanese-made submarine. Taiwan has not only purchased many facilities from various countries, but also hired multiple international experts. If everything goes well, it will be easier for Taiwan to build a submarine in the future. There are eight submarines in Taiwan, but by 2027, there will be four more. Taiwan used to have only two submarines, but both are very old American submarines built in 1947. Because there were no cruise missiles and no means to launch torpedoes, Taiwan could only install torpedoes. However, now, international submarines are of course more advanced in terms of weapons and electronic systems, which is very important for Taiwan's maritime defense. I see. I saw the news of the construction of a Taiwan-made diesel-type defense submarine, but what is this defense submarine? Can you explain it to me? If the Taiwan Strait War begins, the Chinese Communist Party will definitely destroy Taiwan's airports and ports, and will do its best to destroy fixed-wing aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets. Taiwan also has a plan to hide fighter jets and maintain its strength when the war begins. When the war enters the stage of self-defense or counterattack, it is used to prevent the Chinese Communist Party from landing. However, I think that Taiwan's counterattack at this time will basically be in a passive state. The aircraft cannot take off, so the Chinese Communist Party will dominate the airspace and the sea. What is Taiwan missing? One is the F-35 fighter. If Taiwan has two or three F-35Bs, the situation will be very different. This aircraft is stealthy and can fly to the mainland of China with a bomb. The mainland will not be able to monitor it. If it flies to the command post of the Chinese Communist Party and fires two missiles, the command post will blow up. In other words, this is a threat to the Chinese Communist Party. Second, Taiwan must develop a submarine. Submarines are the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party's army, ships, and land forces crossing the sea. If there are two or three submarines at the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese Communist Party's ships will not be able to cross the strait so easily. It is also stated in the Wall Street Journal. If Taiwan can build a sufficient number of submarines, this new weapon may change the policy of the Chinese Communist Party's invasion of Taiwan. What exactly does this mean? Mr. Sekisan, can you explain? The Chinese Communist Party's military equipment and forces have a very big weakness. It is that they do not have the combat ability recognized all over the world. Taiwan's submarines are only 3,000 tons, but they are said to be able to launch all kinds of missiles with 16 torpedoes. Of course, for the Chinese Communist Party, if they don't have the combat ability, they don't know where they are, so this threat is quite high. So if Taiwan has a submarine, it will have a big impact on the Chinese Communist Party. On the other hand, if Taiwan has a submarine, I think that the role of the submarine in the head of Taiwan will be greater when the Chinese Communist Party attacks Taiwan. Because when the Chinese Communist Party attacks Taiwan, there is a possibility that it will take a strategy called blockade. In other words, by using the strait, it will blockade Taiwan from the north and south, and make it impossible for ships and goods to enter Taiwan, destroying Taiwan's own economy. Therefore, the role of the submarine in the blockade and anti-blockade operation may be greater. The water depth of the Taiwan Strait is very shallow, so there is a limited space for submarines to operate. However, it is different in the deep east of the water depth. Mr. Hakkun, do you have any comments? The Taiwan Submarine State Construction Plan has been in effect since 2017, but in reality, it is mainly dependent on the support of foreign experts, and there is a limit to the technology of the country. Many countries are under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party, and they cannot fully support the construction of the Taiwan Submarine. From the submarine fleet to the oil and power driving system, high-voltage sonar system, and weapons, it is a gathering of countries. Therefore, Taiwan has only 40% of the manufacturing capacity of its own country, and 60% of these must be purchased from overseas. Of course, this is already a very wonderful thing. It's wonderful. You can manufacture 40% of your own country. In 2017, I saw some data. If you add up all the parts of a single submarine, it exceeds 100 million points. Taiwan is now able to manufacture 40% of 40 million pieces, which is very wonderful. The important problem is that the international environment has changed dramatically compared to 2017, and the US-China relationship, the Japan-China relationship, and the China-U.S. relationship have completely changed. In fact, the United States has always been opposed to the construction of a submarine in Taiwan. This is because the United States sees submarines as an attack weapon. Since the United States and Japan are both major players in submarine manufacturing, it is much easier for Taiwan to help manufacture submarines than before. As a result, the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait may change again. Well, it's about time. Thank you to all the guests who gave us very wonderful opinions. I would also like to thank all of you for watching. See you again in the next program. Bye-bye.