最🔥羅家聰：經濟車大炮香港日落西山 共產黨強勢統治下 港被綁住係傀儡政權 地產銀行債務都出事 CPI零增長企業生存難再冇生意做 以巴戰火影響經濟 ？國家隊無力撐港股 現金牆都冇用 #Lucy連線

Hello, Dr. Wong. We can see that China's CPI and PPI in September are both bad, Dr. Wong. In September, the CPI grew by 2.5%, and in August, it fell by 3%, which is a reduction of 0.5%. That's the result. When real estate and finance are in trouble, even the entire debt system may be in trouble. Of course, there will be no money to spend or invest. Under economic pressure, inflation will have little impact. As for the PPI, I don't think it will fall too much. Because PPI should reflect the international resource price to some extent. Now the PPI is rising. It's hard to say. For example, if the oil price goes up, it will be difficult for the oil price to go down. If the CPI and PPI are in different directions, in mainland China, it is called cutting-edge. For companies, I think it is a very difficult time. The cost is rising, but the price cannot be converted. It's getting harder to do business. The growth of profit will definitely decrease. Unless certain monopolistic industries can successfully convert the cost to the customers. Otherwise, if you sell the same amount, you will earn less. Besides, the economy may not be so good now. The amount may not be able to keep up. What are your predictions for the private sector report? It is said that some citizens' welfare expenses may be cut. Don't you think it will really send money? In fact, the private sector report has not been well received in recent years. Because Hong Kong is in a mess. Hong Kong is not like Hong Kong now. It's hard to say what can be done. Now Hong Kong has put down its opponents. Of course, Hong Kong can do something. But you can see that what the government can do is actually very limited. First, it depends on finance. If you don't spend money, you have to do a lot of things. You're just a big shot. If you can do it, you don't have to do it. If you can't do it, you won't do it. Second, under the strong rule of the Communist Party There are a lot of things that bind you. It's hard for you to do. In fact, the whole regime is now a fast-paced regime. In fact, there is not much to do. There is very little space to go. When there is very little space to go How many things can you really do? The market is loosening. I think it depends on the approval. If you have other things, it will be more difficult. If you are a so-called newbie I think I have said it before. For example, you have a lot of scientists and scientists. Then a large number of mainlanders You are already doing this. If you say something new I haven't heard it before. I haven't seen how to release it yet. In fact, if there is something There was a release two months before the report was released. There is no such thing now. In fact, there shouldn't be too much. Of course, it is the same every year. It's a waste of time to read for two or three hours. There are a lot of things. But after hearing a lot of things I don't think it's useful. The economic situation in Hong Kong is getting worse day by day, right? If you want to give the Hong Kong government a move What do you think? Can the Hong Kong government find a way to save Hong Kong's economy? If you want to save Hong Kong's economy, don't do so many things. You can shorten the policy report to an hour. Read it in an hour. Don't do so many things. Try to give most of the things to the market. The most important thing for the government is not to interfere. If you don't interfere, the world will be much better. The more things you do, the worse the government will be. So this thing is actually very old-fashioned now. I'm thinking of doing something. If you recall how Hong Kong used to be able to do it At that time, the government ignored it. If you ignore it, you will naturally be able to do it. It's very simple. The war in Ipoh is still going on. Israel seems to have destroyed Hamas after the war. Everyone is worried about the impact of the Ipoh war on the economy. Are you worried that the Middle East will be in a full-scale war? I don't think so. Because the Middle East has been in a state of war for many years. A state of war Even if there is no war, there is still a spiritual conflict. The conflict and war are actually very complicated. There will be some reasons. Sometimes it's the territory, sometimes it's religion. But the whole Middle East seems to be not very tough. There seems to be nothing happened in the history of memory. Occasionally, Ipoh may be two. Or other spiritual countries will have But the whole Middle East has never been involved in war. At least not in recent years. Now, only Israel is involved in the Great Patriotic War. For the time being, Iran does not recognize it. If Iran does not recognize it, it has the right not to be involved. Saudi Arabia is obviously standing aside. I don't really want to get involved. Stand in a neutral position If you don't get involved, I think First of all, the situation in the Middle East is under control. Even if you move up now First of all, Israel is moving with Hamas. In fact, I haven't heard the official statement of the Palestinian government yet. I don't know how to express it. It feels like a country and a group of terrorists Second, the area is still the area of Gaza. In fact, you can see that it is relatively small. The area of ​​leadership is not too large. To some extent, it can't be spread to other places in Ipoh. It's a good thing. So now it can be said that the situation has escalated to infinity. I haven't seen such a situation yet. Everyone wants to calm down in this position. In fact, some people are afraid that the world will be in chaos. Of course, they want to make a mess and do more programs. But in fact, the development of the matter is not that easy. In fact, I think the biggest chance is not to make a big deal. Does it affect the economy? Of course it doesn't affect the economy. First of all, you have to make a big deal to have a chance to make a big deal. You think about it, the Uyghurs have been fighting for so long. They didn't stop. But what effect do you have on finance and the economy? I can't see it. When you look back, many people in the Uyghurs didn't know the economy and didn't know the market. It's a big deal. In fact, many people are afraid that the world will be in chaos. Especially those who do media. I'm afraid that there's nothing to write. I'm afraid that there's no story to tell. I like to make stories. You are always singing and singing. But in fact, if you look back, how much economic influence has there been this year? It's very little. The rise in oil prices is not caused by the Uyghurs. The price of oil has risen for a long time before the Uyghurs started. You can check the time and the data. Even the Uyghurs' war didn't affect you. What effect will this have on you? I really think the impact is almost zero. Let's talk about Hong Kong's stock market. The doctor said it would rebound. It's true that it rebounded for two days, up to 18,000. It's going to rebound now. Then the news said that there will be a national team. If there is a national team, can it be a little longer? Find someone to hold the market so that it won't fall? No, the market force has to come out. It's meaningless to just rely on your own money. Of course, there are not many participants in the market now. For example, you use the method of nationalizing the market to do it. It's meaningless to lie to yourself. Because the purpose of the companies that are listed is to raise funds. It's just raising foreign money. The so-called government calls the country to pay the money. Do you think the CCP really took it out? It's the same as the fund. Those funds are actually people's money. It's not their money. In fact, in the name of the government, it is called the abuse of public money. It's not going to take a long time to take people's money and go to work with this method. It's meaningless to those fund companies. You know how long you've been boiling your own sugar water. If the economy is better than the market, it will rise by itself. If the stocks you put on the board are visible, with basic factors and potential, everyone will buy it. People who buy things may not consider politics. Many times I see those old men or those who work in finance In fact, there is no difference between yellow and blue. There is no color difference. If he has money to make, he will go. He knows so much. It is obvious that you have no money to make. If the economy is not good, they will leave. Chen Maobo also talked about Hong Kong's tax evasion. Tax evasion is more than HK$500 billion. The income of buying land is only HK$156 billion now. His target is HK$800 billion. It's not far off now. Now he also said that he will increase taxes. Even choose the government's expenses. What do you think of these economic policies? In order to deal with tax evasion, there is not much debt. But the debt is falling fast. He has no choice but to do this. But it is very unfortunate. Now the world is ready to enter a downward cycle. When you are in a downward cycle, you are forced to balance your budget. You have to increase taxes and cut expenses when the economy is in a downturn. This is a countermeasure against the cycle. When he first took office, he wanted to counter the cycle. Of course, he didn't see the countermeasure at the beginning. Because the economy was fine at that time. He kept sending money. This is the result of the wind washing away the dust. When the weather is good, don't waste money. At that time, it was a waste of money. Now you have to balance your budget. When the economy is in a downturn, how to increase taxes and cut expenses, you can't do it. There is no way to avoid it now. Many banks in mainland China are going bankrupt. Will this spread? What are the consequences? It should spread. But I don't know how it will spread. Because the systemic risk is fixed now. But the systematic risk, the rate of explosion, the model is not clear now. What is the rhythm of the real estate market? It's hard to say now. Because the real estate business is holding a lot of debts. It's a mystery now. It's hard to grasp. A lot of hidden things haven't come out yet. Secondly, I don't know how the government will save money. It is estimated that each real estate company will pay a debt. The bank will cover the debt. I don't know how many debts he has now. How many due dates are there? He didn't pay all the due dates. He may pay some and not some. I don't know which ones are due and which ones are not. So it's hard to predict the model of the explosion. But I guess it will try to make it fall. The so-called fall is a continuous default. It's not a pile of a pile. Suddenly, a lot of shares are covered by a lot of debts. Or a large amount of debt. It's a continuous situation. It may be a scale of tens of billions or hundreds of billions. If you can get 1,000 billion or 10,000 billion, it's a big deal. Hundreds of billions of yuan will be issued one after another. The bank also has to cover the debt. When the funds are really tight, he may let it go. I guess that's how it works. He is trying to use this method to make the situation fall. If so, you said that there is a fall. Is it the CCP or the central bank, the financial system can bear the risk and the impact? It's hard to say. If it suddenly falls, you can't stand it. If you slow down the pace and let it go, is it okay? Not necessarily. At some point, it's not just a matter of liquidity. If you have too much at once, you can't handle the liquidity. If you take it slowly, the bank or other financial institutions will have more and more assets. At some point, there will be a situation of unbearable debt. This is a matter of time. Until when? Until the red market or the downward trend ends. It's not that fast now. It's not too much. Or the excess can't be cleaned up. The whole property is still excessive. The floor is still too high. Things still have downward pressure. It's hard to sell property. Real estate developers have to make money to deal with their own liquidity. Even unbearable debt is difficult. Of course, the bank will have problems if it can't pay off. Banks have to evade. Even if you go to the bank to get money, you may not be able to get it. It must be getting more and more dense. Now the situation has been adjusted. There is a fall. It's like making a quagmire. It may explode a little, but it may be more frequent. It's the same with banks. Sometimes they may block you from applying for a loan. But it's not that you can't get it at all. It may drag you for a while. If you can handle the debt, they will give it back to you. So you may have more and more situations. It may not be that you can get it as soon as you get the money. It may take a few days, a week or two, or longer. Or you may get a limit. The more you press, the lower it is. Once you get a large amount, you can't get it. Then you have to take it. There may be more and more of these things. There are more and more banks in this situation. It's easier to get a loan. But at some point, everyone will see through it. In the end, will the banks really give you the money? Will you be able to get all the money back? Everyone will ask this question. When you lose confidence, it will be worse. Another phenomenon is that even if the bank brings out a cashier to show it to the public, the public won't believe it. As Dr. Wang said, it's the aftermath of a demand. If everyone goes to the bank to withdraw money, everyone won't believe the bank. It's a matter of confidence. Second, as Dr. Wang mentioned, local banks or even overseas banks will explode and withdraw money. In fact, you don't need to distinguish the place. If there is a problem with the bank, in fact, if there is a problem with the entire bank, it may be the place or the headquarters, or wherever, there will be a problem. If you talk about the People's Bank, they won't be shocked if they withdraw money. They will be responsible for saving the money. Whether the funds in the mainland flow or not is their own problem. This has nothing to do with the US inflation. The economy is bad now. To some extent, the deterioration rate is accelerating. Of course, the depreciation of funds will be faster. But for the time being, this kind of fund flow is not necessarily related to certain things. I haven't seen it yet. It's not a big number. In such a big country, there is a certain internal demand within itself. Of course, if you have foreign funds, you can withdraw money. But the whole economy is not too much. It's not a big threat to them. Because they have never relied on the financial market to boost the economy. You have never seen it. For example, the A-share, the RMB market has always been a small market. For me, it's just a currency. There is no market that can be played. The entire financial market has never participated in the process of economic development. Without a very important role, if you withdraw money, it's not a big threat to the economy. On the contrary, the property market is more afraid. After all, the property market was really fired a lot at that time. But this has nothing to do with the outside world. The property market was fired by the people inside. The money inside was fired. Now it's back. It's just a matter of your own department. You have the right to get real information.