Champions League Final Predictions: Manchester City vs. Inter Milan | ESPN FC

Jim, because obviously Inter are on that winning run, they've only dropped one game in 12. So obviously, as Craig say in Needham, there are still going to be some concerns for Manchester City. What do you think is the biggest worry for them against this Inter side? I think the fact that Inter do arrive in such great confidence. You know, if you've won 11 games out of 12, it doesn't matter which league you're in, whether it's, you know, Serie A, Premier League or playing Sunday League, you will be fancying your chances. You step out on the field with the belief that you can go and win a game of football. So I think ultimately for City, they can move the ball around and so on, but they have to be clinical, they have to get the ball into the net. Because otherwise, you left this sort of illusion that you're in control of the game with possession, but the other team might be okay with that. And I think as the time passes, the closer the game is, you know, one goal can completely change everything. So I think from the City perspective, they just have to be clinical. I think everyone understands that we'll have periods where they'll have possession. But what can they do with that? Can they sort of win the tactical battle? Can they win the physical battle? Can they win their individual battles? And if they do that, then yeah, I think they'll find a lead within the game. And there'll obviously be some point in the match, even if they have a lead where they'll suffer. But that's football. That's a Champions League final. Like, you should never be expected to be easy because the team that makes it to that final to play against whoever, like, they're not mugs. They didn't arrive there by accident. So I think from City, they understand Inter are going to be in good form. Like at the training session today, they were in good spirits. And they're going to be ready. I think tactically, they're going to be fantastic, I'm sure. As Gab was saying, like, with the tactical adjustments they make in the games, I think that'll be interesting to see how they do it. And for me, when we talked about tactics and stuff, I'm interested to see if City's front three can pin back Inter's back five. Then if you play a numbers game, that means City's in the ascendancy. So I'll be very interested to see how they do manage to sort of try and overcome that. And if they get that right, then yeah, it poses a few more questions because you'll be taking out, say, some of the threat that City's attacking midfielders have. But we'll have to see what his argument is on the day. I want to ask you this, Gab, when it does come to Romelu Lukaku and if he doesn't start as is expected, at what point in the game does he come in? Well, Nzaghi, at least in the league, is extremely predictable with his substitutions. And this is a whole other different approach. You know, we've seen Pep in games where he only makes one substitution or no substitutions. Nzaghi almost always makes all five. And it's always the same substitutions. You know, he sends, he changes his strikers. I would assume generally around the hour mark, we'll see Lukaku. I think it's pretty much guaranteed. We'll see Robin Gosens as well coming on wide because this is how he likes to operate. You know, you give them one look against a certain type of player and then you bring in a different type of player who's fresh and he thinks that this isn't it. So Dzeko goes into the game knowing that, you know, barring something cataclysmic happening, he's only going to play an hour. And, you know, the question is, what condition will Inter be in when Lukaku comes on? Now, if they're 2-0 down at halftime or 3-0 down and Dzeko's been terrible, then we might see Lukaku sooner. But if the game is tight, I would assume we'll see Lukaku at the hour mark. We'll probably see Gosens on for Di Marco at the hour mark. The usual substitutions he always makes. This is where the theory and everything else slaps you in the face sometimes. Because personally, I would start Lukaku because... Hold on. Because... You are certainly not his biggest fan. No, well, hear me out. You know, yes, you can see why after 60 minutes you bring Lukaku on. He's got pace and strength and all this, right? Has he? Well, he's shown it recently. Yeah, back to his best self. So do you weigh it? He looks overweight. Do you start Lukaku? Because if City don't defend well behind the ball, then that's where Inter are going to hurt them. And the pace of Di Marco on one side and Dumfries and Barella. But I'll tell you what, the pace of Lukaku and what his game's all about. So, you know, if you don't get any opportunities before the hour and you're two or three nil down, then it's too late. You know, if you have Lukaku starting and you get a goal and you have something to defend, then you bring on Dzeko, then you can hold the ball up so actually you can get out. So listen, there's all kinds of theories and all kinds of tactics. But personally, I would start Lukaku. You don't think he's scarier to deal with than Dzeko? Hold on, hold on, hold on. Are we talking about Lukaku from five years ago? I saw him come on against Milan, right? I saw him come on against Milan. You're talking about Lukaku's pace. He's lost the bulk of that pace. He's nowhere near as quick as he was. There's not one City defender that Romelu Lukaku is running away from. Certainly not at the start of the game. I don't know about that. No, well, I'll tell you what we can agree on. I'll tell you what we can agree on. I'll give you the strength. I'll tell you what we can agree on. Dzeko ain't running away from him. No, but no. Including me, he's good. Right. No, no, and that's my point. And I think that's what tips the balance for me. Is that there's none of those, maybe Lautaro Martinez. Lukaku now is nowhere near back to his best. He still looks a little bit cumbersome and unfit to me. Yeah, when he comes on and when players are a little bit tired and the game's, you know, an hour, 70 minutes in. But if he's not going to run away from defenders and Dzeko's not going to run away from defenders, I think Dzeko's a much cleverer footballer. I think he's a more clinical finisher. We saw that and he's playing with confidence. And I've always thought Dzeko would start because if Lukaku was going to be the threat in behind, like he was a few years ago, then fine. But unless I'm watching the wrong Romelu Lukaku, he ain't running away from any of these defenders. He's not. Dzeko will start. Yeah. Because you look at the games recently, you look at the cup final, the rest of it, Dzeko started. I'm just saying that what I would do, I would start Lukaku. That's all I'm saying. Who would you rather come up against, Nadeem, as a City defender? Dzeko or Lukaku? Well, to be honest, they've both scored against me in my career, so it's a toss-up, really. It's just punishment either way. But it's two completely different types of players, isn't it? I think if you were tired in the game of 60 minutes and Lukaku's coming on, I don't think you'd be too happy to see that. But then in the same breath, you've got Edin Dzeko, who has got that City connection, is a free agent at the end of this month. This is potentially his last game for Inter Milan, so he's going to be doubly motivated as well. It's a great finisher, right foot, left foot. But yeah, basically, you asked me the question, I'm biased for both. I think they're both fantastic players. And I like Lukaku as a person as well, so I think I have to pass that one over to Gab, I'm afraid. Yeah, Gab, you've got to weigh in on this topic here. Well, listen, I think when we talk about pace and Lukaku and does he look heavy, is he overweight? He's been in really good form recently. I don't think he necessarily needs to go and scamper away from the defenders. The thing about Lukaku is he's a big, strong man. And if he builds up a head of steam and he makes the right run at the right time, which I think he has certainly... I actually think he's a clever footballer and he certainly can do that. Then he becomes a handful. And then, you know, if you're Ruben Diaz or you're a Kanji, maybe you feel like you have to foul him or foul doesn't get called or whatever. You know, he can mix things up physically in a way that Dzeko's not going to do or Dzeko will do on a set piece or so on. So I think that's the thinking, the Lukaku off the bench role. He's comfortable with it. Obviously, he would rather start. Every footballer would rather start. But what Inzaghi's done, because he's used more substitutions than anybody and because these are program substitutions, players know their jobs. Players need to go and they have to... If you come on with half an hour to go, then you have to sort of spend 90 minutes of energy in that half hour. And if you start and you know you're one of the guys who's going to come off, you have to put 90 minutes into those 60 minutes that you're on the pitch. Again, it's not foolproof, but it's a formula. That's worked pretty darn well for him this season. All right, Gab. What would it mean then for this intercide to cause the upset and actually win tomorrow? Oh, it would be tremendous because nobody expects this, right? Again, without dredging up the trouble with Mourinho and the fact that Inter, of course, have three of these European cops at home already. You just have to think of the trajectory of this team in recent years, right? So they go, they roll the dice, they live the dream with Colte, they spend a ton of money, Hakimi, Lukaku, whatever else, they win the title. And then all of a sudden, economic reality sets in. The company that owns them, Suning, essentially a quarter of the company gets nationalized by the Chinese government. There's no more money to spend. UEFA come knocking, you guys are going to breach. And then they have to do things on a shoestring and they have to do things with free agents. You look at this team, Mkhitaryan, a free agent, Dzeko, a free agent, Shalinoglu, a free agent, Onana, a free agent, DiMarco and Bastoni, two guys, and this is a very Inter thing to do, two guys who were at Inter, who then they let go and they have to buy back for more money, which is a typical Inter move, which dates all the way back to the days of Adria Mutu. This is a team that's being held together with sort of spit and gravel. And it's incredible that they're in the final. And I think for these fans, given how unlikely this is, Acerbi, another free agent, not just a two-time cancer survivor, but a free agent who was chucked out of his club in August of last summer. So you've got this colorful, pretty improbable band of players with some legit stars thrown in there, like Lautaro, possibly like Barella, like Bastoni, who are trying to achieve essentially a fairy tale. And that's pretty motivating. I think from the fans' perspective, yeah, they're just happy to be here, but having gotten here, they want their team to go out and push City as far as they can. And if the opportunity's there and you never know in a final, take advantage of it. I think that's what any fan wants when they play a team like Manchester City. If Inter do it, will there be questions of Pep Guardiola for not winning this game? I mean, it depends if Inter win it, how they win it, and how City play, I suppose. But I think there is always going to be questions and doubts until he gets the job done. And it's a bit, in some sense, not so much, a bit like PSG, who seem to be continue chasing and have chased this sort of pot of gold, maybe not so much recently. City have been in a much better position to do it. I think the losses to the likes of Lyon, which were surprising. The tinkering in the Chelsea game when, again, they looked heavy favourites to win. I kind of think these are all lessons that even he's learned. Somebody with so much success and experience in his career has certainly done on him that it wasn't the right way to go about it. But yeah, I mean, I think for any manager, Stevie, that loses when they are favourites and heavy favourites, when their team are playing so well, there's always going to be questions. But I don't think Man City fans, and I'm not speaking for them, but I don't imagine them saying, oh, this guy's not... I think the appreciation of actually how they play and the success they've had domestically, that it would be disappointing, but they would accept it. It's just one of those things. There'll definitely be questions if they don't win. I mean, it just goes with the territory. Whether it's right or whether it's wrong is a different question. Listen, if he turns around and plays a new formation and makes changes, then we'll all be jumping on the bandwagon. But at the same time, if that team that Gabs picked, which we all agreed with, starts the game and plays the game and doesn't win, you can't go pointing the finger at Pep, really. But they will. It's the team that played Man United. It's the team that played Real Madrid twice, basically. He set his mark out. That's the team that he's going to play. He's played it in all the big games recently and all the players know where their bread is buttered. Mahrez knows he'll be on the bench. All these guys, you know, the supporters, Julian Alvarez, they all know they'll be on the bench because this team, as Stevie said earlier in the show, every one of them has cemented their place on the side and said, you literally can't drop me. The standards have been so high, this team has not quite picked itself, but he has not had a difficult Friday night before a Saturday game. Pep Guardiola. And I don't think it was too difficult for everybody's predictions for this final because I saw the emails coming pretty quickly when you guys were all asked.