Luka Doncic analysis, 2019: The Harden-Bird hybrid

You may have heard that Dallas rookie Luka Doncic is pretty good by now, but just how good is he, and maybe more importantly, how good can he be? To begin with, I'm not sure there's been a craftier rookie in league history. He's 19 going on 35, which makes some sense when you remember that he started playing professionally in 2015, when he would have been a sophomore in high school. Look at this play. It's a clinic in subtle manipulation. First a little up fake, then he heads right to put his defender on his hip, then a little pause and a look away, enough to open up a little gap to squeeze through. The score itself is almost an afterthought. He accentuates contact like a soccer star. His embellishment of slight bumps would make James Harden proud. Check this one out, he seals his man behind him before faking back to turkey. He constantly gets defenders to bite at these fakes, pumping and then moving into them for free throws. Also note that offhand swiping towns away. It's quick and subtle, and Luka uses it all the time. Like here, where he discards with the right arm, then uses a little chicken wing to keep the defender at bay. These are sly, wily moves that help him overcome below average athleticism. Again, dislodging with the off arm, then moving into the defender after the fake. He has great touch and feel around the hoop on all kinds of little shots like this, using a push shot here, after putting the defender on his back again. Relying on this kind of basketball jujitsu doesn't always work, and sometimes he gets stuck against disciplined defenders. He's not a player who can generate easy looks, and isn't really quick enough to blow by most guys with his burst. Because he's not vertical, he's also not a great rim finisher. He has basically no lift headed left, and whatever bounce he has finishing right doesn't give him much of an edge there either. He doesn't really get good separation in traffic, and as a result he's only in the 35th percentile in rim finishing. But Luka's also full of counters, and his feel for the game is so strong that he can often wrap a defender into knots before finding an opening. These counters are effective because Luka's step back is already deadly, and it has all kinds of range. This allows him to get it off against most defenders, and despite still being a teenager, it makes him one of the most prolific off the bounce outside shooters in the league. He's shooting 34 percent on non-catch threes, which is quite solid for perspective. James Harden's at about 38 percent. Harden's also the only player in the The step back opens up so many of his cagey counters too, since he can sell it hard and then drive if the defender bites. He sets up the step back here, but since the defender's closer, he segues it into a better move. This counter heavy type of game is pretty common for him, and he'll throw in little head fakes like this to sell the whole package. If his man overplays the step back, he can get in the lane, and he takes about a quarter of his shots at the midrange like this, and another quarter at the rim. He's also got a little floater teardrop thing going on out to about 15 feet as well, but nearly all of his remaining shots are three point attempts, and he's already at a solid 41 percent on wide open triples. And again, that deep range stretches opposing defenses. I also love the high release point on his shot. He'll take advantage of smaller players by shooting it right over them, and that foul baiting and body shielding gives him one of the best free throw rates in the entire league. He reminds me a little of Larry Bird, a resourceful manipulator who used size, physicality, and a high release point while shredding defenses with his passing. Luka's not there yet as a passer, but at 19, he has the potential to be an all-time level distributor. He's already world class in two specific pick and roll reads. First, he makes this corner skip pass in his sleep. When the weak side defender slides over to help, Luka fires it into the corner pocket. He'll whip the pass off the dribble after only a minor defensive reaction, just one or two steps toward the paint, and he can throw this thing without looking, holding this help defender in place like a quarterback manipulating a safety, which leads to the second pass he's mastered, hitting the roll man on this same action. If this defender doesn't take away the roll, Luka uses his height to sling it down the middle, and from there, things can get more advanced. He freezes the help defender here by looking into the corner before hooking this nastiness, and once he's got the defense guessing, he'll exploit their hesitation. That no look is about as good as it gets. He's growing comfortable throwing more lobs, too. Notice how early he tosses this, and some of these dimes to the rim show perfect touch and timing. He hasn't thrown these into every window this year, probably adjusting to the more athletic teammates in the NBA, but he's a quick learner. This shows up in his passer rating, which has steadily improved throughout the year, and when compared to historical seasons, Luka's having one of the most prolific young passing seasons ever. And if we look at where similar rookies ended up, most of them peaked as all-time level passers. Doncic still has clear areas to improve here, too. Sometimes his passes are a bit wild and off-target, sometimes the execution isn't quite right, and he still misses his fair share of openings. For instance, this pass is wide open, and this pass is just way too late. Despite unimpressive athleticism, Luka's man defense is decent. He can stay with slower players like this pretty well, and he has some success hopping in front of mediocre forwards. But these little hops and guesses get him in trouble. Note how he correctly anticipates Klay heading right, but the Lindsey Vonn footwork leaves him wide open to a change of direction. He struggles with balance like this, guessing and getting his feet way off the ground, and that can lead to a poor center of gravity when defending in space. This is not the defensive stance you want to be in. His team defense is just as bland. He's often in solid position, but he could be a step earlier here, and a better pass would expose this. Again, he's a bit too unaware of the ball here, and it's an easy layup. Like in man situations, he lacks horizontal quickness. Lunging is rarely a good sign. And when he's in good position, he can't offer strong closeouts because of this. His awareness is sometimes an issue too, and he can lose track of cutters like this more often than I'd like. But he does show flashes of that high basketball IQ, here reading his man's eyes and understanding the extra pass behind him, and I think in time that vision and court mapping can make him a much stronger team defender. He's certainly a willing defender, which also bodes well for his improvement on that end. He's got decent hands too, although I wouldn't exactly call him disruptive. But he'll get a hand in there from time to time, and he'll get physical on the glass. I think his solid defensive rebounding adds value. Despite guarding small forwards and even shooting guards, he's in the top 20% in defensive rebounding rate in the entire league. All told, Luka's put together one of the best teenage seasons in league history, and he's rapidly improving. His impact metrics in December were pedestrian, but they continue to improve every month, and now paint him as a top 50 player in the league. I don't think he's quite an all-star yet, but he's only months away now, not years. He's already a primary offensive engine on a decent offense, carrying the third largest load for a rookie ever. But the area that intrigues me the most with Luka is how good of a shooter he can be. If he could, say, approximate Harden's accuracy, 3-4% better on open and covered threes, with that deep range he shows flashes of, not only would his raw scoring be more valuable, but that would amplify all the other parts of his game. It's unlikely that he'll ever be a really good defender, but he has the IQ to shore up his team defense and become positive on that end. And slightly positive defense, paired with superstar offense, is a perennial MVP candidate. If you're interested more about how Luka stacks up against the rest of this year's rookies, or even the best rookie seasons of all time, like Larry Bird's 1980, or Wilt's debut in which he won the MVP, I share a database of these stats with my patrons. A lot of the numbers you see in these videos are proprietary, and you won't find them on Basketball Reference or anywhere else. So if you're interested in those, check out my Patreon, patreon.com slash thinkingbasketball. I'll leave a link in the description box below. Also just released the latest episode of the Thinking Basketball podcast that's on not-quite-all-stars in 2019, so check that out if you're interested. Otherwise, thanks so much for watching all the way until the end, and I hope you're having a great day.