China Miscalculated U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran: Insider Sources | China in Focus

Welcome to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. Our top story. Insider sources suggest China was caught off guard by the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Iran's supreme leader, what Beijing had expected from the operations, and how they miscalculated the situation. Israel's air force struck the building of Iran's body in charge of appointing the supreme leader. Why an expert says the move could be rattling China's Xi Jinping. Iran's late supreme leader Ali Khamenei's theocracy system wasn't tied by Allah but the Communist Party. Groups in the U.S. linked to the Chinese Communist Party appear to be organizing protests to sway public opinion against the strikes on Iran, how the conflict is putting China in an economic stranglehold. And the most important political meetings underway in Beijing. Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party is tightening its suppression on human rights activists and protesters. China's leadership was reportedly caught off guard by the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed the Iranian regime leader. That's according to the Epoch Times earlier this week. Sources familiar with internal discussions in Beijing say officials believe the U.S. and Israel wouldn't directly go after Iran's top leadership. However, the assessment proved to be a major miscalculation as the crisis escalated. The strikes hit Tehran and several key cities, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with Iran's defense minister and more than 40 senior officials. But according to people familiar with Beijing's internal discussions, Chinese officials only expected the situation to remain a pressure campaign. That assessment was based largely on earlier patterns. Iran had faced years of pressure from the U.S. and Israel without a direct strike on the country's top leaders. So the Chinese regime believed that a major escalation was unlikely to happen. The operation has also raised questions in Beijing about security cooperation with Tehran. Iran's security agencies had received Chinese technical support in recent years, particularly in surveillance systems. But those measures did not prevent the attack. Some of the surveillance tools that Israel used to track Iranian officials may have come from China. Experts say a good portion of Iran's traffic and security cameras are built with Chinese technology. They're part of a broader surveillance network the Iranian regime uses to monitor protesters and political opponents. Israel reportedly hacked into some of those cameras years ago, giving its intelligence officials a real-time view of streets across Tehran. That access helped track the movements and daily routines of senior Iranian officials leading up to the recent strikes. A China analyst believes the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran are sending Chinese leader Xi Jinping into a panic. That's because Iran and China have similar power structures. The Israeli Air Force struck the building of Iran's Council of Experts on Tuesday. The body is responsible for electing the country's next supreme leader. An Israeli defense official said the strike was to prevent them from doing so. The council has 88 members, but it's unclear how many were inside the building at the time. Iran's power structure is somewhat similar to China's leadership structure. The Communist Party's Central Committee selects the Politburo, which then chooses the seven men who run the country, with Xi Jinping at the top. Think about how big of a blow it would be if the Communist Party's Central Committee was struck, even though it's just a puppet organization for Beijing. What does it mean for the Chinese regime if this organization stops working as normal? Iran's Council of Experts doesn't truly have independent power to appoint the supreme leader. That's because the candidates it chooses from are decided by a different body controlled by the supreme leader himself. This means the process largely reinforces the existing leadership rather than checks it. Iran's late supreme leader Ali Khamenei's theocracy system wasn't taught by Allah, but the Communist Party. Zhao says it would be interesting to see how the strike on the Council of Experts impacts Iranian society. He added that it could offer lessons for China if a similar event ever unfolded there. And over in Taiwan, China's military aircraft haven't flown near the island nation for an week. On Friday, Taiwan's National Defense Ministry said it's a rare quiet period that began after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Before the Iran attack, Beijing kept sending several and sometimes dozens of warplanes across the median line of the Taiwan Strait each day. The median line is an unofficial boundary between China and the island. While many people across the world are taking to the streets to celebrate the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Chinese regime is working against that support with paid protests. NTD's Washington correspondent, Jack Bradley, has more. Celebrations are sweeping major U.S. cities this week as crowds thank President Trump for strikes that eliminated Iran's top regime leaders. But CCP propaganda is pushing back, with groups tied to the Chinese regime organizing counter-protests against the strikes. Those include the Party for Socialism and Liberation, Answer Coalition, the People's Forum and Code Pink, recognized by Congress and the State Department as being linked to Beijing. That the protests are not grassroots. These NGOs are financed by a millionaire who lives in Shanghai who has very close contacts with the Chinese Communist Party. Some are also connected to Neville Roy Singham, a Marxist businessman with ties to the CCP. Neville Roy Singham donated over $20 million to the People's Forum through shell companies. Following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, China's economy is taking a major hit. Beijing already slashing growth targets, with experts doubting any real growth ahead. But it's probably going to be negative, and especially because China's in a deflationary period. The conflict has choked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where China buys about 80 percent of Iran's sanctioned crude. China's authorities have now ordered major refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina to halt signing new export contracts. Gas prices in China up 11.0 percent, diesel up 13.5 percent, and the National Development and Reform Commission is telling refiners don't export anything and cancel contracts if you can. This fuel crunch may even slow China's AI race. Two of the biggest AI contractors in China are Huawei and ZTE. They both have huge contracts in Venezuela and Iran for which they are now not going to be paid. And we're talking about tens of billions of dollars in contracts of revenue that they were expecting to get that they weren't getting. They were doing a lot of AI testing in these countries. While many cheer the blow to a terror-sponsoring regime, China faces a double blow. Lost allies and skyrocketing energy costs that could derail its economy. Reporting by Jack Bradley, NTD News. The most important political meetings, the so-called two sessions, are underway in Beijing. And as it has done for decades during major events, the Chinese Communist Party is tightening its suppression of people it deems enemies, including human rights activists and protesters. People are jailed, homes are demolished, hospitals are pressured to deny them medical treatment, and other forms of pressure are applied. The gold investment company in southern Fujian province is accused of a massive financial scam. The company had attracted locals with high returns. Some elderly investors poured in their life savings, hoping gold would secure their retirement. But in February, the payouts suddenly stopped and management disappeared. On Monday, more than 1,000 victims gathered outside the city government, demanding their money from the company back. A father of a vaccine-injured child in central Henan province says police warned him to stay silent during China's more important annual political meetings this week. On Tuesday, Li Xing posted online saying security officers came to his home and warned him not to publish anything online during the meetings. Li says his child has been disabled by a vaccine for eight years. The case is still unresolved. Li Xing's wife founded the parents' advocacy group Vaccine Babies Home. She was sentenced to five and a half years in prison for seeking justice for her vaccine-injured daughter. She remains behind bars. A rights activist has gone missing after trying to seek medical treatment in Beijing. Yang Li suffers from late-stage kidney failure. She traveled from her hometown in southern Jiangsu province to Beijing for treatment. But security officers from her hometown followed her and interfered. The hospital then refused to treat her. Yang was left waiting in a hallway at the hospital for 20 days. On Tuesday, Beijing police spoke with Yang and her parents at the hospital. Shortly afterward, the three lost contact with the outside world. A human rights activist in Beijing says her home was demolished while she was in prison, leaving her in despair. Chen Xixing, a well-known human rights activist in Beijing, released a video on Wednesday saying local authorities forcibly demolished her home while she was in prison for her activism. She says all the property inside the house is gone. Now she is sick, homeless and has no source of income. Chen spent years petitioning after authorities demolished her home and land without proper compensation. She was also known as a whistleblower, exposing official corruption. Coming up, Hong Kong pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai will not appeal his 20-year prison sentence, which is effectively a life sentence for a 78-year-old. And the Iran war is impacting China in many areas. We bring on a panel to discuss. The economy is nowhere near what the party was telling everyone it was going to be. And now Donald Trump controls and influences more than half of China's petroleum imports. That's a huge thing. Welcome back to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. Hong Kong pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai will not appeal the conviction that led to his 20-year prison sentence. His legal team confirming the decision on Friday. Lai is 78 years old. His team did not comment on why they won't appeal. The Apple Daily founder and critic of China's Communist Party was found guilty in December. The charges were a conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and conspiring to publish seditious articles. The case has drawn international criticism of Hong Kong's national security law imposed by Beijing. Amnesty International calls his 20-year sentence a cold-blooded attack on freedom of expression. Lai was among the first high-profile figures arrested under the law. It was introduced in 2020 in response to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Several Apple Daily journalists were also detained and the newspaper shut down in 2021. And to unpack the latest on the Iran war and its many impacts on China, we spoke with Jacqueline Diehl, president of the long-term strategy group and advisor at State Armour and former CIA operative J. Michael Waller, senior analyst for strategy at the Center for Security Policy. Jackie, starting with you, we've not seen that much come out of China in response to this war, aside from words of moral backing and sending a delegation to mediate, some suggesting the regime is scrambling in response. Your thoughts on that and also how the war is impacting China and its interests in the region? Great to be with you, Tiff. Nice to see you, Michael. I think the Chinese are trying to gather their thoughts about this latest show of force and initiative from the U.S. military and its allies. In terms of their rhetoric or narrative, they're trying to cast the United States as disruptive or unreliable, but I think the facts belie that. I think the show of force from this administration has demonstrated that actually the United States and its allies are back doing their traditional work of enforcing international law. We saw this with the seizure of shadow fleet or sanctioned oil tankers in international waters from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean after the Maduro raid and now with the Iran war. Michael, on that note, multiple reports taking note of Chinese propaganda on overdrive since the war started, even bleeding over into protests on the streets here in America. Why is China trying to control the information space? What's at stake for the CCP here? Well, the Chinese Communist Party must control the information flow. If it's to survive, it's a system of lies, so it has to dominate their narrative and control it. Xi Jinping is nothing but a complete success back home and back within the party where he gets credit for everything that goes right, but not that goes wrong. Right now, things are going very wrong. In terms of the United States, one of the best ways to undermine a country's efforts is to take advantage of and exploit and foment dissent and decisions and divisiveness within that country. You see it occurring naturally in our society, but it's exploited by the CCP, which recycles mainstream politicians' criticisms and also funds through various covert means, some of the street protests that we've been seeing. And Jackie, in terms of economic impacts, reports say that China gets about half of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz and buying nearly all of Iran's sanctioned oil. I've seen China halt diesel and gas exports and it just issued its lowest annual growth target. How could this conflict further deepen China's economic growth? That's a great question. I think we've seen them exercise caution. They've, as you said, started to kind of husband their energy resources. They are, I think, dealing with the reality that they could be confronted with a prolonged situation where their access is not guaranteed to the energy from Venezuela or from Iran and the rest of the Gulf region that they had been accustomed to receiving. We heard reports last night that there's been a dramatic downturn in PLA operations, so Chinese military operations, to put pressure on Taiwan. If that is part of the response or the outcome of epic fury, that's a welcome response for the United States and the peace-loving world. And Michael, expanding on the Latin America component here, this Iran war comes, of course, on the heels of the Venezuela operation. And President Trump talked today talking about Iran and Cuba. Let's actually listen to that part now. We also urge Iranian diplomats around the world to request asylum and to help us shape a new and better Iran with great potential. It's a country with great potential. There's much better future for Iran. It's now beginning. It's going to be, I think, a great future. I want to thank all of the people that have been involved. Marco, you've been doing a fantastic job. And you've been doing a fantastic job on a place called Cuba. What's happening with Cuba is amazing. And we think that we want to finish this one first, but that will be just a question of time. Michael, what do you think the administration has in store for Cuba and what could that mean for China? Well, as the president said, it's just a question of time. The regime is really on its legs. It's got a 20-hour-a-day blackout. Trump cut off all the Venezuelan oil lifeline to Cuba, but he also got Mexico to cut off its lifeline of oil to the Cuban regime so that they've got no foreign sponsors anymore. The Chinese communists can do nothing to protect Cuba like they could do nothing to protect Maduro in Venezuela or nothing to protect the Islamic Republic in Iran. This is a real punch in the face to Xi Jinping and to CCP diplomacy because it just shows if you're an ally of China, the Chinese regime is not going to come and help you. And the material it sends you for your own self-defense is worthless against American armaments. Jackie, President Trump will also be hosting the Shield of the America Summit this Saturday. Leaders from El Salvador, Argentina, Chile and others are expected to attend. Your thoughts on whether this will push back or curb China's influence here? I certainly hope so. I think the president has already made great progress, as Michael was alluding in operations so far, to take back our hemisphere and arrest the Chinese Communist Party's progress in trying to block us in or corner us in our own backyard. We've seen major blows to the CCP's alliance network in our hemisphere. And we're also starting to see physical infrastructure changes. So the recovery of ports in Panama that are important for the security of the canal and the ability of the U.S. to use the canal. If in emergency, we had to send American forces from the East Coast to the West Coast, or vice versa, we're starting to see pushback against the PRC's Belt and Road Initiative and other infrastructure and diplomatic and information technology, bio and space cooperation, you know, again, in our backyard. All of those deals that our neighbors had signed with the Chinese Communist Party regime, ultimately will be at the expense of our neighbors. And the United States, you know, like State Farm is a good neighbor, we're there to remind the countries in our hemisphere, that if you work with the United States, you get the rule of law, you get property rights respected, you get a full package. When you work with the CCP, you get spyware in your infrastructure, you get threats of kill switches, and back doors, you get coercion, you get threats to cut off important trade, if you displease the CCP. And really, that's not a deal that these countries want. And Michael, looking ahead, how does the Iran war impact President Trump's planned trip to China in April? It gives him a lot more leverage than he had one week ago. Xi Jinping is going to have to cut some sort of deal that he won't want to do. Trump will have the initiative, he'll have the narrative. He controls so much of their oil imports. He controls whether or not their vessels shipping oil to China going through the Strait of Hormuz are going to receive insurance or U.S. naval protection. Xi is going to have to really lose a lot of face on this and accept it. And nothing greater could be done for the leader of the Communist Party than to see him lose face before the whole world in front of Donald Trump. Jackie Dale, Michael Waller, thank you both so much for joining us. Nice to be with you. That's all for today's China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. If you have any feedback on the show or have something you'd like to see us cover, send us an email at ChinaInFocus and td.com. We'd love to hear from you. For on the clock original news coverage, visit us at ntd.com or download our NTD app. Thanks for watching. See you soon.