Expert: U.S. Strikes on Iran May Speed CCP’s Downfall | China in Focus

Welcome to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. Our top story. The Iranian regime's top political and military leaders have been eliminated by U.S. and Israeli strikes. How is it affecting relations between China and Taiwan? Beijing has quietly stopped its ongoing intimidation campaign against the island. Beijing and Moscow are yet to offer Iran any military help. What's behind the hesitation? And what's next for Beijing? A China expert breaks it down. Limited Chinese military support to Iran would be unlikely to change the situation and could instead backfire on Beijing. Across Chinese social media platforms, many internet users are celebrating with the Iranian people after the strikes on the Islamic regime. Some are calling for help to end the Chinese communist regime. Clearly there's a desire from Chinese people to want to be liberated from the totalitarian regime that is the CCP. The U.S. Israeli strikes on Iran are leading some people to imagine a future China without communism. One expert thinks the strikes could accelerate Beijing's downfall. They see the CCP, the Chinese government, is not that strong. Before we dive into today's news, here's a message from our sponsor. As we report every day, global markets are becoming more uncertain. China's growing economy and growing tensions with the U.S. are reshaping the financial landscape. And China is buying gold at record rates to diversify its foreign reserves and decrease its reliance on the U.S. dollar. It isn't just countries that can use gold to protect their wealth. It's individuals as well. That's why we believe in protecting what's real. Physical gold and silver from American Hartford Gold offer stability when markets turn unpredictable. Unlike paper assets, these are tangible stores of value that have weathered economic turmoil, political instability and inflation for centuries. 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But Beijing hasn't identified which Iranian leaders are still alive to take part in negotiations. And in the background, there's been a subtle shift in the Taiwan Strait. Right after the attack on Iran, Beijing halted its daily routine of sending military aircraft to intimidate the island over the next three days. Instead, it sent only a balloon. By contrast, on Friday, the day before the attack, Chinese aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait six times. This line is widely seen as the unofficial boundary between China and Taiwan. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend have eliminated almost all the senior leaders of the Islamic regime. But Iran's closest allies, China and Russia, have yet to offer any support beyond diplomatic gestures. To break it down, China Affairs Analyst Tang Jingyuan offers his assessment of Beijing's next move and what the strikes mean to the CCP's Middle East and global agenda. NTD's Flora Hua has the story. China, Iran, Russia and North Korea are widely seen in the West as a new axis of evil. The China-led alliance has long sought to overthrow the U.S.-led world order. Chinese regime leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly touted his global agenda since 2021, which says the East is rising and the West is declining. And Iran is China's biggest ally in the Middle East. China Affairs Analyst Tang Jingyuan says the strikes on Iran could come close to dismantling Beijing's plans to achieve global dominance. Iran is Beijing's key foothold in the Middle East and its main leverage against the U.S. A regime change in Iran, especially toward a pro-U.S. government, would deal a major blow to the CCP, undoing years of regional investment. U.S. and Israeli strikes threatening Iran's regime could mark the start of this axis's fragmentation. Moving on to energy, China relies heavily on oil imports. It's the top buyer of oil from Venezuela, Russia and Iran, all of which are facing serious Western sanctions. Official data shows 80 percent of Iran's oil exports go to China. The strikes on Iran once again put China's energy security on the line following the U.S. takeover of Venezuela's oil industry. Tang says tightening the control over China's energy supplies can reduce Beijing's ability to expand its global aggression. The CCP is not energy self-sufficient and has long pursued a diversification strategy to avoid dependence on any single supplier. The Trump administration's approach aims to systematically restrict China's energy import channels. If those routes are narrowed to just one or two sources, Beijing's supply security would be significantly weakened. Without stable energy access, the CCP's capacity for external expansion would be sharply constrained. But will Beijing provide Iran with military support? Tang says he believes the chances are minimal, saying he doesn't think China is keen to escalate tensions with the U.S. now, as Washington and Beijing are discussing details of inviting President Trump to visit China next month. And especially now as the large-scale military purges and political infighting within the CCP have intensified to unprecedented levels. Xi Jinping is facing domestic and international pressures that have weakened his position. His invitation to Trump to visit China suggests he hopes to use the visit to strengthen his standing. If he were to provide military aid to Iran, it would risk a direct rupture with Trump, potentially even leading Trump to cancel the trip. At the same time, the CCP understands that the latest U.S.-Israel strike on Iran reflects strong resolve. If Trump acts, he likely intends to secure a decisive outcome. Limited Chinese military support to Iran would be unlikely to change the situation and could instead backfire on Beijing. Tang says the CCP would definitely prioritize its own survival over that of its allies at critical moments. Just weeks ago, Beijing withheld support to its close friend, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, when he was captured by U.S. troops. Laura Hua, NT News. Inside and outside of China, a number of Chinese people are voicing support for the military action against the Iranian regime. Many comments online read, congratulations to the Iranian people and please help us here in China, as Chinese citizens express their desire to see an end to the decades long tyranny of the Chinese communist regime. The U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran has sparked heated discussion across Chinese social media platforms. On China's Weibo, almost all the Chinese state-run media coverage expresses support for the Iranian regime while condemning the United States. But in response to these posts, comments from Chinese internet users are drawing a stark contrast. Some mock the media coverage, saying stop faking the defensive capabilities of Iran. Others are celebrating with the Iranian people. Some comments read, congratulations to the Iranian people, you are free now. Outside of China, on the overseas version of TikTok, some Chinese people are saying, please help us. One post reads, if we want to be saved, we have to save ourselves. China commentator David Zhang, host of David on China and China Insider on YouTube, sheds light on what's behind the sentiments of these Chinese people. Clearly there's a desire from Chinese people to want to be liberated from the totalitarian regime that is the CCP. So there is a commonality aspect between the Iranians and the Chinese who are celebrating on the street. Very interesting because in recent years, especially after the lockdowns, you see a lot of brave people online. They obviously use very smart ways, such as using homonyms, using different sentences, using memes or abbreviations to try to bypass the censorship. But people today in China, a lot of them, not everybody, but a lot of them, especially the young people, aren't afraid to talk about the problems and the power that's controlling China right now being a very negative, an evil one. There are also comments criticizing the U.S. and urging the Chinese regime to provide military support to Iran. But the number of comments cheering for the Iranian people and the U.S. military are hard not to notice. Many such posts and comments are being scrubbed by Chinese internet censors. Also facing censorship is a pop song named Unfortunately Not You, which many are using to subtly express their wish that the same thing will one day happen to the Chinese Communist regime. The current military action against Iran is leading some to envision a future China without the Chinese Communist Party. Guo Guangyu, a senior research scholar at Stanford University, posting on X that as Iranians cry tears of happiness, he becomes tearful himself, wishing that his fellow Chinese could celebrate a similar day in the near future. Alan Zhang is a China affairs analyst. He says that even though regime change in China isn't likely in the short term, the strikes on Iran may accelerate the Chinese regime's own downfall because they're showing the Chinese people that the Chinese regime isn't as powerful as they might think. They see the CCP, the Chinese government, is not that strong because they sold a lot of weapons, including the red flag, the missile system. They sold their pre-warning radar to Iran and it doesn't work at all. And the third is that they see the power of the U.S. is just way past any other country, including that of China, of the CCP. Zhang notes that the death of Iran's supreme leader provides the Chinese people with an example of a possible alternative future. The CCP still has a pretty tight grip of the society, of China. The economy is going down, but it hasn't become bankrupt yet. It's on that path. So I think what happened today, a lot of things happened today, really encouraged Chinese people to think maybe we have our new way. We don't have to live under this totalitarian regime. So I think there's still, let's keep a close eye on that. I think a lot of things happen. We'll keep pushing that process forward. Zhang says there are many people in China who are actively thinking about a China without the Communist Party. They don't speak, but they're thinking. There's the internal organization there. I'm in contact with some of them. There's enough people who are thinking very actively about what will happen in the post-CCP era. Zhang says the U.S. should send a clear signal that Washington supports freedom inside China, and have confidence that if regime change does happen, China's society will undergo the transition peacefully, and the world will see a better China if the communist regime collapses. Coming up, how will the military action in Iran impact the world, and China in particular? We speak with a panel. I can't stress enough that 90 percent of Iran's exported oil goes to China. 40 percent of Russia's exported oil goes to China. Welcome back to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. To understand how the military operations in Iran will impact economic conditions in the U.S., China, and beyond, we spoke with our expert panel. Rod D. Martin is the founder and CEO of Martin Capital, and chairman of the board at the Institute for the American Future. Rob Maness is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and former wing and squadron commander. Now starting with you, Rod, the Chinese Communist Party has voiced support for the Iranian regime, but has not come to their rescue in any meaningful way, despite their close partnership. Are you surprised by how the Chinese Communist Party is reacting to the situation in Iran? Absolutely not. I'm no less unsurprised now than I was in the 12-day war, when they talked a good game and did absolutely nothing. The Chinese ability to project power into the region is quite limited at best. But the bigger point is that China is a predatory ally. It has done everything in its power to take advantage of Russia's situation. And in the Iranian case, it has refused to even sell them any advanced fighter jets. There's a reason that we have been talking about Iranian F-14s sold to them in the 1970s by the United States under the shock, because they don't have any modern equipment. Colonel, I want to get to more on China. But first, this has so far been a largely Air Force-run operation or in the skies. As a retired Air Force colonel yourself, speak to the complexity of this mission, especially you had U.S. and Israeli forces working together here. Yeah, thanks for having me on, Tiffany. Look, this is a combined air and naval campaign, and combined with the Israeli forces, too, and other surface forces that may be in the area that are our allies. So the first day really was all dedicated primarily to taking down the integrated air defense system, the command and control nodes, and going after what the President called the head of the snake, the Ayatollah and his team, all very successful. As a matter of fact, the Israelis announced today that they've so successfully taken the air defense system down now that they're no longer using standoff weapons, which means they're flying directly over the targets that they want to destroy and dropping bombs on them. We'll continue to hit their air defense systems and their command and control networks to the point where even one of the generals from Iran was saying today that—I think it was the foreign minister, actually—said today that their command and control is so disrupted their units are operating independently and blame these strikes on civilian targets on the military units that don't have any command and control capability anymore. So we've fractured them, we're disrupting them, and it's a good time for the Iranian people to rise up, as the President has asked them to do, and take weapons from these armories that are now isolated and attack these targets and these units that are isolated from their primary command and control out of Iran. Rod, in terms of the economic impacts here, of course there's been a lot of focus on the Strait of Hormuz. China is the world's biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil and a large portion of that oil transits through that Strait of Hormuz. If there is a supply chain disruption, how big of a shockwave will it send to China's economy? Iran's ability to close the Strait is very limited, and the U.S. Navy is more than competent to eliminate what remains of the Iranian Navy. So, you know, the biggest problem we have right now is making sure that the ballistic missiles are reduced to nothingness and that their ability to continue attacking ships in the Strait and our bases around the region are eliminated. On the broader economic implications, I can't stress enough that 90% of Iran's exported oil goes to China. 40% of Russia's exported oil goes to China. So as Donald Trump tightens the noose on the shadow fleet that has enabled all of that, the bigger target is actually communist China, which is increasingly in a box. It's going to have to start buying its oil, a huge percentage of its oil, on the open market at full price, and increasingly it's running out of allies. Venezuela, now Iran, if Russia can be peeled away as the result of a peace deal with Ukraine, it's transformative for the Chinese position, and it's a great boon to China's neighbors, particularly Taiwan. Well, first of all, right, they're going to have to pay market price, but they're also going to have to deal with the United States. That's what's brilliant about this combined Venezuela and now Iran operation, is that it's cut China out of its shadow fleet, as Rod said, and this cheap oil coming from Iran and Russia. And that's what all of the Western Hemisphere approach has been about, going to Greenland and trying to get Greenland under the wing of the United States of America, is all about disrupting China's ability to move oil back and forth and move goods back and forth to its allies that are, like you said, being peeled off there. So it's a very tremendous outcome that's happened there, and the president's going to go see President Xi here soon. When he walks in that room, he will have all the chess pieces on the board. He'll be holding his cards that only he has, and Xi will not have very many at all, and be in a lower position and a really weak position as they start their talks and everything. As far as Taiwan goes, look, you know, one of the things the Chinese did give to the Iranians and the Venezuelans is this so-called counter-stealth radar for their air defense system. And in both cases, those radars have been destroyed easily by not only stealth aircraft, but we're using non-stealthy EF-18s for disrupting the integrated air defense system as part of these strike packages, and we've even been able to hit them with those. So the Chinese are not going to be very well thought of from their defense gear that they're trying to peddle around the world, and that's going to hurt their economy even more than it's already being hurt because of the oil situation. And Rod, how are you viewing the upcoming Trump-Xi visit in April? Because many headlines, at least, were saying after the Supreme Court ruling on the tariffs that Trump had lost one of his cards when it came to China. Well, first of all, he absolutely hasn't. The Supreme Court ruling was shockingly narrow in that it only prohibited the use of IEPA to impose tariffs. And you've got a nine to zero majority, if you read the dissent and the concurrences, for the idea that the president's power to impose tariffs under the other trade acts that explicitly delineate such power continues in full force. I mean, this was the chief justice's point. Why is he using IEPA? He can use these other powers. Well, one of those has never been used, and it's the Section 338 power under the Tariff Act of 1930. No president's ever used it, but it allows the president to hit any country in the world with a 50% tariff for national security matters. There's just no way for the president to get overruled on this. And with the Supreme Court saying that this power is enough of a foreign policy power to be split between Congress and the president, it's very clear that he has at least as much power as he has to bomb Iran. I'll have an article out in the morning on the constitutionality of the president's actions here, which I think is ironclad, going back to the founding fathers. But in all these areas, Xi Jinping is absolutely in the exact position that Rob just said. He has very few cards to play, and Donald Trump has him exactly where he wants him. And expanding on that, Colonel, zooming back or zooming out a bit here, for the Venezuela operation, there's reporting that the radar or defense systems were actually Chinese-made, and it seems like those failed. There was also a Chinese delegation on the ground when that operation went down. In terms of Iran, after the 12-day war last year, there's reports that Iran changed from the U.S. GPS system to China's Beidou system. It changed a bunch of the tech that was either Israeli or U.S.-made to Chinese-made ones. Given all of this, though, talk to us about the tactical significance of these operations and how fast they've been. Did you expect something like this? Well, from an airman's perspective, taking down the integrated air defense system with modern precision weapons and the ability that we have to see, hear, and detect all of the frequencies, the radars, and how they operate, and you can even judge how proficient the operators that the Chinese had trained on their radars and those kinds of things are after you observed them over a period of time, which is what we did with Venezuela. We were down there for weeks. That's why we were doing it. We were prepping the battle space. Same thing with Iran. When the Iranians got the Chinese radars, we started looking at them. We'd already seen what they could or couldn't do in the 12-day war by bringing our B-2s in and our F-22s to back up the Israeli defense forces because they're monitoring and picking up things like the electromagnetic spectrum themselves and recording that. We bring all that intelligence back and we map out how effective or ineffective the operators are combined with the technology. Then in less than 24 hours, as you saw in this case, Iran is a much larger target set than the Venezuelan operation is. Even just 24 hours out, the Israelis are already reporting that the air defense system is so badly damaged that they're just flying in at will and dropping bombs right over the target. We're even starting to strike those IRGC forces that are suppressing protests that attacked the celebrating Iranians last night. All of a sudden, those police and IRGC forces were hit from above with our aircraft, which tells you that we have complete control over the airspace and complete control and knowledge of their communications because you have to know what they're talking about to know where they're going and when they're going to be there. That's pretty incredible. That's all for today's China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. If you have any feedback on the show or have something you'd to see us cover, send us an email at ChinaInFocusNTD.com. We'd love to hear from you. For on the clock original news coverage, visit us at NTD.com or download our NTD app. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow.