（國語）以火炮爲主的消耗戰，對雙方都苦不堪言｜【 #時事軍事】

Hello everyone, I'm Xia Lushan. Now, people don't doubt that the war in Ukraine is a war of consumption. In this war, whoever has the continuous ground firepower advantage, whoever seems to be closer to victory. If people only look at the numbers that are often quoted, they will inevitably sweat for Ukraine. Although there will be different understandings when observing the problem of ammunition supply from different angles, people generally think that Russia has a greater advantage in terms of ground firepower compared to Ukraine. The number of rounds fired by the Russian army on the battlefield is usually five times more than that of the Ukrainian army. Sometimes it may even reach ten times or more. Since the beginning of the war in 2022, the number of rounds fired by Russia every day has always been several times more than that of Ukraine. In the disastrous situation in June 2023, this ground firepower gap has reached its peak. The number of rounds fired by Russia has made up for the shortcomings of the Russian equipment, battlefield information and command and control system. In the case of huge casualties and equipment losses, the Russian army can still make even small tactical advances. This is enough to show the indispensable decisive impact of ground firepower on the battlefield. The United States and Europe have promised to provide millions of US bombs to Ukraine this year, but the delivery is not going well. This means that after Ukraine obtained the promise of US and Western military aid, in fact, the frontline troops did not receive sufficient ammunition supplies. A Ukrainian frontline commander said that they could only fire a few bombs a day to cover the 7-mile line. On the other hand, the Russian troops' ammunition depots are almost invincible. This means that the Russian army can still attack the Ukrainian troops with firepower. 80% of both sides' casualties are caused by ground firepower. This statement may have changed now, because Russia is using air-to-air missiles to strengthen its artillery advantage. Ukraine is also expanding its reconnaissance and attack drones on the battlefield. No matter how much these variables affect the battlefield, the basic means of combat are still cannons. What is surprising is that it is not as important as long-range guided weapons and anti-aircraft missiles, but it is one of the important factors in restricting the Ukrainian battlefield situation. It even involves all the ammunition production capabilities of the United States and the whole of Europe. Huge ammunition consumption depends on the support of the temporary military-industrial production capacity and the supply chain of raw materials. If we turn our attention to the production of bombs in the military factories, we will find that the Russian military factories are operating 24 hours a day, and military products with low technical content such as bombs do not seem to be affected by international sanctions. Russia can produce 3 million to 5 million bombs a year. In addition, Russia can also buy more bombs from North Korea. Of course, we cannot rule out that the CCP may be another important source of arms. The CCP's artillery caliber has recently switched from 152 mm to 155 mm, which means it has a large amount of 152 mm ammunition storage. This is a huge ammunition depot that can be provided to Russia. In comparison, the US and Europe add up to only a few thousand rounds of ammunition per day. The total production of artillery ammunition per year is less than 1 million rounds. Obviously, with the current production level, the United States and Europe cannot guarantee sufficient supply of Ukrainian ground artillery ammunition. This is not only a problem of military-industrial extension of working hours, but also a problem of the construction of artillery production facilities and the supply chain of raw materials. Conventional 155 mm artillery is mainly composed of three parts, namely metal shells, explosives, and propellers. This may be the most easily manufactured component. The United States has been promoting the increase in shell production. In 2023, the Pentagon received an order worth $217 million from a public power company to increase the production of 155 mm artillery shells in its Binzhou, Sclanton and Velskbar factories. They expect to reach a significant increase in the production of 155 mm shells by 2025. The first choice of artillery ammunition is the three-propeller clip, also known as TNT. TNT is more stable than ordinary explosives, can be melted and used to fill shells. The problem is that although it is relatively stable, it still has the risk of accidental detonation and injury. More importantly, TNT is toxic and will have a harmful effect on the environment. This is when the U.S. Army began to look for safer products that could replace TNT. Since 2010, the U.S. Army has been cooperating with the BAE System Company to develop a new type of explosive that is used for artillery. In 2013, the U.S. Army issued an order worth $780 million to the BAE System Company. A non-sensitive explosive called IMX101 was produced in Hulston, Tennessee. After deciding to turn the explosive into IMX101, the U.S. and Europe almost closed all TNT factories. Now, only one factory in Poland is still producing TNT. The annual output is about 10,000 tons, which is enough to produce 1,000,000 155 mm artillery shells. In other words, if the U.S. and the West cannot improve the production of IMX101 in time, only TNT produced in Poland can produce 1,000,000 shells a year, and the annual output of Russia is 5 million. In fact, the production of IMX101 in the Hulston factory is far from being up to date. The production is not enough to replace TNT, and the cost is 28% higher than TNT. The Hulston factory needs to carry out a large-scale modernization and upgrade of equipment to meet the requirements of the U.S. Army contract. The BAE System Company decided in 2011 to upgrade the Redfield gun factory in Virginia. At first, the budget for 2015 was $245 million. Now, the plan is not only beyond budget, but also 10 years later than the original plan, and is under investigation. The U.S. Army is relying on the old factory and the raw materials such as oxidized fiber provided by foreign countries to maintain the current production. Some of the raw materials come from India and China. Among the three elements of shell production, explosives are the main control factor. At present, only one factory in Poland can produce 1,000,000 TNT shells a year. This is obviously not enough, and even if this problem is solved, it will be solved in 2025. This may be the main reason why Ukraine's military performance on the battlefield has been dull since the beginning of the military aid provided by the U.S. in the spring of this year. Before the arrival of the new type of gun, Ukraine can not expect that the shortage of ground artillery ammunition will be solved in the short term. It is also possible that in a relatively long period of time, the U.S. and Europe will not be able to fulfill the military aid they promised on the part of gunpowder ammunition. While Ukraine is looking for allies, it also needs to rely on its own wartime economy and defense industry to make up for or reverse the shortage of ammunition on the battlefield. At present, Ukraine is mobilizing all forces to produce various types of reconnaissance, attack, and bombing drones. Although Ukraine's ability to attack drones on the battlefield can not replace ground artillery, Ukraine's attack drone development is very fast and has already achieved a significant battlefield effect. People keep hearing that the drone has successfully destroyed Russian tanks, infantry tanks, anti-aircraft guns, self-propelled guns, fuel warehouses, and even Russian domestic military infrastructure. The characteristics of the first-person perspective attack drone are simple operation, agile maneuverability, high success rate of hit, low cost, and easy to mass-produce. Once the scale of Ukraine's drone production reaches a million units, it is likely to replace ground artillery to a large extent in terms of function and scale, effectively reversing the passive situation of the Ukrainian troops. At that time, the Russian military's superiority in ground artillery may be gone. That's all for today. Thank you for your attention. See you next time.