When polls close across Massachusetts on Tuesday night, the question for Massachusetts may not be which party controls Congress — both sides expect Democrats to win that battle — but what that control means: what they do with it, whether it benefits Massachusetts and how it fuels the races forming for 2028.
President Donald Trump will have two years left on his term and either Gov. Maura Healey will continue butting heads with his administration in the name of Massachusetts values or Republican Mike Minogue, who has backed Trump, will give Massachusetts a potential ally to advocate with the White House on the state’s behalf.
The state’s all-Democratic congressional delegation is attempting to preserve its grip on nine U.S. House seats and both U.S. Senate seats. If they do and their party takes over the majority in one or both chambers, it will test their political and leadership skills heading into the 2028 presidential election cycle.
Even the Republican seeking to break up the state’s one-party delegation in Washington D.C. agrees Democrats are likely to win Congress back.
“We all know that the Democrats are gonna win the House, and the Democrats are going to win the Senate,” John Deaton, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Ed Markey, said during an Oct. 13 debate.
Congressman Jim McGovern of Worcester was slightly less declarative.
“I mean, it’s not over until it’s over, but I’m hopeful,” he told the News Service.
A reliable source of money, talent and influence in the Democratic Party, Massachusetts could be poised to influence the national political landscape, for better or worse, as Trump’s term winds down and in the unpredictable post-Trump era.
“There sure is a lot at stake. I mean, that’s the cliche of the year,” political analyst Jon Keller said. “What happens this fall is really going to determine a lot about the near future, no question.”
Analysts agree that Trump in office and Democrats leading Congress could result in more Washington gridlock. But elected officials from both parties will be looking for wins heading into 2028, and there are signs that public officials may need to answer to an expanding political center that’s hungry for problem-solving and fed up with polarized politics.
What it all means for both parties’ chances in 2028 is a toss-up.
Opportunity, and risk
Democrats are already eyeing investigations into Trump, his family and administration should they take control of Congress, which could in turn pull them away from addressing voter priorities and lead to more of the partisan politics that many voters are tired of. But the investigations could “make things a lot more uncomfortable” for Trump, said Matthew Baum, a public policy professor at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.
“Any way you cut it, it takes a lot of time,” Baum said. “Now that’s a … double-edged sword for Democrats potentially because it’s not necessarily the case that voters — if they put them in the majority — are primarily interested in having them do lots of investigations. What they’re really primarily interested in is seeing the cost of living go down.”
Current and former Democratic members of Congress have expressed varying degrees of optimism about Democrats’ ability to juggle the priorities, if they win the midterms, of passing policies and investigating Trump.
U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern was confident saying “Congress can do both” while also remaining clear-sighted about the political fallout if Democrats fail to do so.
“If Democrats win, a large part of it is going to be because people are just appalled by Donald Trump and are sickened by Republican policies. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in love with us,” he said. “I think we’re being given a chance, if we win, to actually show the people that we get it, to show whose side we’re on, and if we don’t, I think our majority will be short-lived.”
Even with Trump in office, McGovern said a Democratic Congress could still accomplish some things “because that’s where all the money comes from.”
“We’ll pass bills on affordability and we’ll send them to Trump,” he said. “Let him veto a bill to lower gas prices if he wants. Let him veto a bill to end the war in Iran or undo his cuts to Medicaid, but if he does that, it’s all on him.”
Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic political analyst, said she expects Democrats to take “a three-prong approach” to investigate Trump, overturn the president’s work and propose their own policies.
“That only increases the likelihood that a Democrat will be the next president of the United States,” Marsh said.
Bryan Lanza, Trump’s 2024 senior campaign adviser, said Democrats earning a narrow margin of power in Congress would expose existing fissures. He thinks the party likely won’t have enough votes to impeach Trump and that it’s unlikely Democrats will be able to advance meaningful policy, leading to disillusioned voters.
“So, 2026 is going to be tough, and it’s always tough for a president in office. They always lose seats. They usually lose the House. They don’t lose the Senate,” Lanza said. “But I look a little bit further down to 2028, which starts Nov. 6, and we feel in a better position.”
How much influence Democrats could wield largely depends on their margin of power. Estimates range from 216 to 240 House seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House with 218 seats — along with one independent caucusing with the GOP — and Democrats have 214, and there are two vacancies.
Still, some say the midterm results may not even be influential in the presidential election.
“I don’t think the 2028 presidential primaries are going to be decided on results in Congress or Washington,” Rob Gray, a GOP-affiliated strategist and the founder and president of Gray Media Group, said. “These days, presidential elections are more determined on performance on the campaign trail, money, organizations, and policy positions, as opposed to accomplishments.”
Democrats winning Congress would continue a pattern of power flipping back and forth between the major parties as voter dissatisfaction with the president is expressed on the midterm ballots.
And the party that regains control tends to get overconfident with their newfound power, further fueling a cycle of power regularly changing hands, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. He noted risks that something like a recession, which the U.S. hasn’t seen in six years, could be pinned on Democrats if they gain control of Congress.
“I guess the message is: ‘don’t let it get to your head,’” Paleologos said.
If a “blue wave” takes shape, a Democratic-controlled Congress could “get the federal dollars flowing again, get the grants flowing back to universities,” Keller said. The landscape is less predictable with Trump, who has challenged political norms and is known for punishing opponents, but his time in the White House is winding down.
“I would think that the Massachusetts delegation would like things to return to some kind of normalcy,” Keller said. “I mean we are just straight up a target of the Trump White House. So with that gone, it suggests that you might be able to return to something resembling normal, which, you know, normal was not bad for Massachusetts.”
U.S. Rep. Katherine Clark of Revere is minority whip, establishing her as a likely contender for majority leader under the next Democratic-controlled House — and potential House speaker candidate down the line, analysts say.
Democrats’ success in the 2026 midterms could mirror the results of 2018 when Democrats gained a net of 40 seats in the House halfway through Trump’s first term. At that time, U.S. Reps. Richard Neal and McGovern became chairs of the House Ways and Means and Rules committees, respectively. Neal and McGovern have been ranking members of their respective committees since 2023, after Republicans took back control of the House in 2022.
White House relations
Holly Robichaud, a Republican strategist, disagreed with those who say Massachusetts could see more federal dollars.
She said a Democratic congressional delegation would continue having “major funding problems of getting their fair share back from D.C,” because congressional members don’t have a solid relationship with the Trump administration.
“We need to have some balance here in Massachusetts, and I think we would do better to have a mixture of Democrats and Republicans,” Robichaud said. “That’s the way our whole system was created for checks and balances. And here in Massachusetts, we’re just so lopsided. And when it comes to federal funding and stuff, it’s not helpful for our state.”
Whether Healey or Minogue win, they will need to assess the state’s relationship with the White House.
If Democrats win control of Congress, Healey will have more influence in her pursuits of federal funding and investigating Trump, analysts say. If Minogue wins, experts say his background as a Trump donor and supporter could soften the president’s view of Massachusetts, but likely not by much. Also, Marsh said Minogue would have a wobblier relationship with the state’s congressional delegation which would likely fund projects they’d prefer regardless of his stance on them.
Robichaud said Healey would need to put aside her differences with Trump and “start to think about our state.”
“I think using the bully pulpit to beat the crap out of the president is not really helpful, whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican president,” she said. “A governor going out there and bashing the White House does not gain you favor in order to get funding. Both of them have got to find a way to work with the Trump administration for the next two years.”
Keller said Healey and Minogue will have to keep “playing defense” against Trump’s policies for the next two years.
“I don’t see a weakened lame-duck Trump administration being less out of control or less dangerous,” Keller said.
Minogue and Healey have expressed very different views on the governor’s relationship with the president. In a debate, Minogue said “it doesn’t really matter who the president is.”
“Donald Trump is president for the next two years, and that’s why who your governor is matters more than ever,” Healey said.
The governor has also said that “Trump is on the ballot this election” and argued her role is even more important in the face of the president’s cuts to Bay State funding and policies she and fellow Democrats disagree with.
Minogue later explained his statement.
“So what I said is, as the leader, it won’t matter to me who the president is. I’m going to do what’s in the best interest of the people, right? That’s the job of the governor,” Minogue told the News Service, noting that he has worked with Democratic presidents while running Abiomed.
“When we have a new president in the next term, two years in, that could be a Republican or Democrat. When that happens, I will go down to D.C. I will work with anyone for the benefit of our people,” Minogue said.
Looking beyond Trump’s final term, Gray said there’s a chance Healey would leave the governor’s office and pursue a position in Washington D.C. if a Democrat is elected president, part of a game of political musical chairs. Massachusetts pols have frequently flirted with the presidency: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton have already run, as did former Govs. Deval Patrick, Mitt Romney, Bill Weld and Michael Dukakis and former U.S. Sen. John Kerry.
Other administration jobs have their lure as well. Former Gov. Charlie Baker’s name surfaced for a potential Biden administration post. In 2024, halfway through her first term, Healey was thought to be up for a position in a potential Kamala Harris administration.
“2028 is a complete wildcard because of Trump and the fact that he doesn’t follow the rules or any of the traditional norms of politics and governance. Anything could happen,” Gray said. “We will have so many political hurricanes and tornadoes between Election Day in 2026 and the first presidential primaries in 2028.”
Katie Castellani is a reporter for State House News Service and State Affairs Pro Massachusetts. Reach her at [email protected].
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