An analysis estimates that 10,139 migrants have crossed the English Channel since Andy Burnham became prime minister in July, averaging nearly 98 arrivals daily, although official figures show crossings in 2026 remain substantially below last year’s levels.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
More than 10,000 migrants have arrived in Britain aboard small boats since Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office in July, according to a new analysis that places the daily arrival rate above those recorded under several previous Conservative governments, despite a substantial year-over-year decline in Channel crossings.
The analysis published by GB News estimates that 10,139 migrants have reached British shores since Burnham became prime minister on July 20, averaging approximately 97.5 arrivals per day.
The broadcaster calculated that Burnham’s average exceeds the rates recorded during the administrations of former Conservative prime ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. However, it remains below the estimated 103.6 daily arrivals under his Labour predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer.
The findings have renewed scrutiny of Burnham’s immigration policies as the government faces pressure to reduce unauthorized Channel crossings and improve the removal of people without permission to remain in the United Kingdom.
The figures also reveal a distinction between the number of arrivals recorded during a prime minister’s tenure and the broader annual trend. Although thousands have continued making the journey since Burnham entered Downing Street, official statistics indicate that crossings in 2026 have fallen considerably compared with the equivalent period in 2025.
According to the latest Home Office figures published Nov. 1, 1,193 people arrived aboard 16 small boats during the seven days ending Oct. 31.
The arrivals followed several days without recorded crossings, with 263 people reaching Britain on Oct. 29, another 671 arriving Oct. 30 and 259 arriving Oct. 31.
The three-day increase came after a period when poor weather conditions had limited attempts to cross the Channel.
British authorities recorded 22,128 small-boat arrivals between Jan. 1 and Oct. 31, 2026, compared with 36,954 during the equivalent period in 2025, representing a reduction of approximately 40%.
That comparison provides a broader measure of the annual trend than the average calculated exclusively from Burnham’s first months in office.
The government’s latest statistics are provisional and remain subject to revision.
Burnham succeeded Starmer following a Labour Party leadership change in July. The former Greater Manchester mayor became Labour leader July 16 and formally assumed the premiership July 20, inheriting the government’s immigration enforcement policies and its agreement with France concerning small-boat crossings.
According to GB News, at least 77,183 migrants arrived through the Channel during Starmer’s premiership, producing a daily average of approximately 103.6.
The broadcaster’s comparison with Conservative predecessors places Burnham’s estimated 97.5 daily arrivals above the corresponding averages under May, Johnson and Sunak.
However, direct comparisons between prime ministers have limitations because the scale of Channel migration, smuggling operations, enforcement practices and international conditions changed substantially between their administrations.
Small-boat crossings were comparatively uncommon during May’s early years in office before increasing under subsequent governments.
Annual figures later rose sharply, reaching 45,774 arrivals in 2022, the highest calendar-year total recorded since the Home Office began publishing the data in 2018.
Weather conditions also have a significant influence on daily and monthly totals, with strong winds, rough seas and storms frequently preventing departures from northern France.
Consequently, a prime minister’s average daily arrival figure does not independently establish whether a particular government policy has succeeded or failed.
The Labour government has emphasized the reduction in crossings compared with last year as evidence that its border enforcement and international cooperation measures are producing results.
The longer-term comparison is particularly relevant because 2025 recorded 41,472 small-boat arrivals over the full year, substantially more than the total recorded through October 2026.
An earlier ITV News report published Nov. 3, 2025 documented an 11-day period without arrivals during the final weeks of Starmer’s government, when prolonged adverse weather prevented crossings.
The report stated that 36,954 people had arrived by that point in 2025, illustrating how seasonal conditions can interrupt crossings even during years with relatively high overall totals.
The same report examined Britain’s agreement with France allowing certain migrants arriving in small boats to be returned to the continent in exchange for people entering Britain through an approved legal route.
Known as the “one in, one out” arrangement, the agreement was introduced in August 2025 as part of efforts to discourage unauthorized crossings and disrupt smuggling networks.
Under the policy, eligible people who arrive by small boat can be detained and returned to France, while an equivalent number of applicants may enter the United Kingdom through a legal process.
The arrangement has faced criticism over its limited initial scale.
By early November 2025, 75 migrants had been returned to France, while 51 people had entered Britain through the corresponding legal route.
Conservative politicians argued that the numbers were too small to discourage smuggling operations, while Labour officials maintained that the initiative represented an additional enforcement mechanism requiring time to develop.
The policy has remained part of broader discussions over how Britain and France can prevent dangerous crossings and improve the removal of people whose asylum claims are unsuccessful.
The Home Office has also pursued measures targeting smuggling organizations, illegal employment and individuals without lawful permission to remain in the country.
British authorities distinguish between small-boat arrivals and attempted crossings prevented by French law enforcement.
The official arrival figures include people intercepted at sea by British authorities and subsequently brought ashore, as well as those detected arriving directly in Britain.
They do not include individuals whose departures are prevented in France, those returned by French authorities or arrivals that escape detection.
The distinction is important because a reduction in recorded arrivals may reflect several factors, including changes in weather, enforcement, smuggling routes and the number of people attempting the journey.
Most people reaching Britain by small boat subsequently claim asylum. Their arrival without prior permission does not, by itself, determine whether they will ultimately qualify for refugee protection or another form of lawful status.
Under international refugee law, individuals may seek asylum even when they have entered a country through irregular routes.
Nevertheless, unauthorized Channel crossings remain a major political issue because of their implications for border enforcement, public spending, asylum processing and pressure on local accommodation services.
Burnham assumed office after Labour lawmakers withdrew support from Starmer amid broader dissatisfaction with the former prime minister’s leadership and the government’s performance.
The leadership change placed the responsibility for resolving the Channel migration issue under Burnham, who previously served as a cabinet minister and mayor of Greater Manchester.
His government has continued seeking closer cooperation with European partners on migration enforcement, including measures intended to strengthen information sharing and disrupt cross-border criminal networks.
The latest arrival statistics present competing assessments of Britain’s progress.
Critics point to the 10,139 migrants reported to have arrived since July as evidence that unauthorized Channel crossings continue at a substantial pace despite the change in leadership.
Government supporters emphasize that the annual total remains approximately 40% below the corresponding period last year, suggesting that the broader trend has improved.
Both measurements address different aspects of the issue: the number of arrivals during Burnham’s tenure and the year-over-year change in Channel migration.
The continuing crossings also demonstrate that the government has not eliminated the small-boat route, notwithstanding the decline in recorded arrivals.
With additional months remaining in 2026, the final annual total will depend partly on weather conditions, enforcement operations and the continuing activities of smuggling networks operating along the French coastline.
The Home Office will continue publishing provisional arrival figures, followed by more comprehensive official immigration statistics that assess the annual trend and the effectiveness of border enforcement measures.
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