NEW YORK, October 19 — SpaceX and Tesla will report third-quarter results on consecutive days this week, offering investors an unusual opportunity to compare the financial performance of Elon Musk’s two most valuable companies as speculation about a potential merger intensifies.
The earnings reports will test whether SpaceX’s expanding Starlink business and Tesla’s automotive operations can generate enough revenue and profits to support the enormous investments in artificial intelligence that increasingly connect the two companies’ long-term strategies.
Investors are expected to focus on Starlink’s revenue growth, Tesla’s automotive margins and the financial implications of their ambitious AI expansion plans.
Merger Speculation Intensifies Ahead of Tesla’s Annual Meeting
Barclays suggested last week that a potential deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, scheduled for December 3. SpaceX is considered the more likely acquirer, although neither company nor Musk has officially committed to pursuing a merger.
In an all-stock transaction, Barclays estimates Musk would own approximately 37% of the combined company’s equity and control 56% of its voting power.
Some investors believe a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla could offer structural advantages, including a way to address Tesla’s Chinese operations separately.
The companies have increasingly overlapping ambitions in artificial intelligence, despite having different core businesses. SpaceX generates revenue from rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet and AI computing, while Tesla primarily earns revenue from electric vehicles and energy storage.
SpaceX also absorbed Musk’s AI company, xAI, in February, further strengthening the connection between the businesses.
SpaceX: Investors Focus on AI Revenue and Spending
SpaceX is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, marking only its second financial results announcement as a public company following its June initial public offering.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect third-quarter revenue of approximately $12.74 billion and earnings of 14 cents per share.
That would represent a substantial increase from the second quarter, when SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in revenue, a net loss of $541 million and $15.8 billion in AI-related capital expenditure.
Evercore ISI expects SpaceX to exit 2026 with an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $104 billion, with its AI business providing much of the anticipated growth. The firm estimates capital expenditure could reach approximately $151 billion in 2027.
Starlink remains another important contributor. Connectivity revenue, including Starlink, increased 66% year over year to $4.3 billion in the second quarter.
SpaceX also agreed on October 8 to acquire 800 MHz of spectrum from Grain Management for approximately $8 billion. The transaction requires approval from the Federal Communications Commission and supports the company’s Starlink Mobile ambitions.
SpaceX shares closed at $146.03 on Friday, above their $135 IPO price but below their post-listing peak.
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