CHINA — China’s exports were expected to sustain their strong performance in September, as overseas demand for artificial intelligence-related products helped manufacturers navigate continued weakness in the domestic economy.

Economists surveyed by Reuters projected that exports would rise 25.5% year on year in U.S. dollar terms, up from the 25% increase recorded in August. Import growth, by contrast, was forecast to ease to 24.5%, compared with 28.2% in the previous month.

The median estimate placed China’s trade surplus for September at $118.10 billion, marginally lower than August’s $119.09 billion. China’s customs administration was scheduled to publish the official trade data on Wednesday.

The projections underscore the vital role of overseas demand in supporting Chinese manufacturers. Strong international purchases of high-tech goods, including products tied to artificial intelligence, have helped maintain industrial output despite subdued domestic consumption and investment.

Signs of improvement have also emerged in the manufacturing sector. China’s official purchasing managers’ index climbed to 50.1 in September from 49.8 a month earlier. Both the new-orders and production sub-indexes entered expansion territory.

A continued recovery in manufacturing activity and exports would offer additional support to policymakers seeking to achieve China’s annual economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%.

Nevertheless, robust export activity has done little to resolve broader concerns about the country’s economy. Consumer spending and investment remain weak, while the property sector continues to face difficulties. As a result, foreign trade has become increasingly important in sustaining economic activity.

The outlook for exports also coincides with mounting pressure from the United States and the European Union over China’s industrial overcapacity and growing trade surplus. According to the Reuters report, China’s surplus is on track to surpass $1 trillion for a second consecutive year.

Recent trade agreements may affect individual industries, but their overall influence on China’s export performance for the year was not expected to be substantial.

Following a leaders’ summit in Washington last month, China and the United States agreed to extend their trade truce and pursue tariff reductions covering $30 billion worth of goods for each country.

Separately, an agreement reached in October to restrict China’s hybrid-vehicle exports to the European Union is expected to weigh on Chinese car shipments. However, its effects were unlikely to be significant during 2026.

Chinese policymakers have increasingly emphasized the need to boost domestic demand and infrastructure spending. Economic growth lost momentum in the second quarter, slowing to 4.3%, its lowest rate in more than three years.

Analysts expect authorities to refrain from introducing large-scale stimulus measures unless exports begin to weaken, according to the Reuters report. Sustained demand from overseas markets could therefore allow the government to continue relying on more moderate policy support.

China’s third-quarter gross domestic product figures, scheduled for release early the following week, will provide the next major indication of the economy’s performance.

For international companies and investors, the expected September figures reinforce the importance of AI-related demand to China’s manufacturing industry. Whether continued export strength can counter domestic economic weakness and intensifying trade tensions remains a key question for the country’s growth outlook.

Original article