BANGKOK — Artificial intelligence investment is playing an increasingly important role in expanding international trade, with China, India and other Asian economies gaining from stronger demand for AI-related products and technologies, according to the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist.

Speaking on Tuesday at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Silvana Tenreyro said trade linked to artificial intelligence had grown substantially faster than overall international commerce.

Global trade expanded by 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, while AI-related trade increased by 29%, Tenreyro said. Excluding AI-related trade, global trade growth over the same period would have reached just 4.6%.

The figures highlight how technology investment is becoming a major force in international commerce. Demand for AI-related products has helped sustain production, investment and exports in countries involved in the technology’s supply chains.

Despite these gains, the IMF official warned that the concentration of AI supply chains across a limited number of countries and industries could expose the global economy to disruptions. Problems affecting major suppliers or production centers could have repercussions extending well beyond individual businesses and markets.

The IMF also pointed to risks from a potential correction in the market valuations of AI-related companies, which could undermine economic growth and financial stability. Cybersecurity threats connected to artificial intelligence present another possible challenge.

Tenreyro said the IMF’s baseline outlook anticipates that the current AI boom will gradually lose momentum. Its longer-term economic impact, however, will depend in part on whether continued investment delivers meaningful productivity improvements.

Sustained productivity gains from AI adoption could boost economic output and help ease inflationary pressures. Businesses could produce more goods and services without needing to increase costs at the same rate.

A less favorable outcome could emerge if investment remains strong but fails to generate comparable productivity gains. In that case, the economic benefits would be more limited, while inflation could rise further.

Tenreyro also warned that reassessments of the profits businesses are expected to earn from AI investment could trigger a reduction in demand. Such a shift could have significant consequences, given the substantial resources companies and investors have already committed to the technology.

Separate from AI-related concerns, the IMF continues to monitor high public debt and persistent inflation. Tenreyro called on governments to start reducing budget deficits and urged central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies, including raising interest rates when necessary to bring inflation back to target levels.

Her remarks highlight the challenge confronting policymakers as they weigh the benefits of technology-driven economic activity against the associated risks. Although strong AI investment has supported trade growth, it has also raised concerns about financial stability, supply-chain vulnerabilities and inflation.

The IMF is also revising its research into how artificial intelligence affects employment. Changes in jobs, productivity and corporate profitability will be important in determining whether the current expansion produces lasting economic benefits.

For businesses and investors, the key issue is increasingly whether rising AI demand can translate into sustainable productivity gains and profits without exposing the economy to excessive financial risks.

Original article