China — China’s refined copper production is heading toward its weakest annual growth in decades as smelters contend with constrained raw material supplies and declining profitability.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures forecast that Chinese refined copper output will increase by between 3% and 3.4% this year, a significant slowdown from the 10.4% growth recorded in 2025. A review of official records by Reuters indicates that such growth would be the slowest since at least 2000.
Refined copper production rose 4% in the first eight months of the year, but analysts expect the pace to slow in the fourth quarter.
The availability of scrap copper is expected to decline as a result of a tax crackdown, adding to an existing shortage of copper concentrate, the main raw material used by smelters.
Smelters are also facing weaker profitability as sulphuric acid prices decline. The price of the byproduct has dropped 11% so far in September.
Seven Chinese smelters have scheduled maintenance periods lasting between 30 and 60 days in October and November. Analysts estimate the shutdowns could cut refined copper supply by approximately 80,000 metric tons.
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