A new poll on the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race finds incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton by nearly 30 points in the month ahead of the Sept. 1 primary.
The poll, conducted by UMass Amherst/WCVB using 445 self-identified Democratic primary voters between Aug 5 and 12, found 60% of Democrats and Independents polled reported they would vote for Markey at the time. Of those polled, 32% reported they would select Moulton.
The results represent an uptick in Markey’s lead from Oct. 25 UMass polling, when 51% polled responded Markey and 28% said Moulton.
Similarly, 66% of Democrat and Independent respondents indicated they trusted Markey “more to represent you on the issues you care about,” compared to Moulton’s 34%.
“The largest theme among Markey supporters is Markey’s progressivism, which supporters prefer to Moulton’s perceived moderation,” the poll states.
The poll notes Markey supporters’ praise of his standing for “ordinary people” over special interests, long tenure as an asset, and “strong support” for transgender people.
The top theme among Moulton’s supporters, the poll found, was his status a younger candidate.
“Respondents in this theme argue that, because Moulton is younger, he has a better grasp of contemporary problems and a more current view of society,” UMass stated, noting responses also characterizing Markey’s long tenure as a negative, Moulton as a more moderate choice, the candidate’s willingness to depart from the party on trans athletes, and his military service.
Asked about the candidates’ “top three qualities” determining their vote, the majority of respondents, 24%, selected “best represents my views on the issues” as their top quality in the most recent polling. Last October, 31% selected “will challenge President Trump” as their first, down to 19% in August.
Respondents also ranked Markey higher in supporting almost every demographic ground listed, including large leads in seniors, LGBTQ people and immigrants. Moulton held a slight lead for representing young people.
The poll also looks forward to the general election, finding Markey with a 51% lead over Republican candidate John Deaton’s 30%, and Moulton similarly at 49% over Deaton’s 25%.
Pollsters even looked further ahead to the 2032 election, when Markey has stated he will not be running.
Top potential candidates, the poll found, included Moulton, Gov. Maura Healey and U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, followed by options like former Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, Mayor Michelle Wu and Rep. Jake Auchincloss.
Markey and Moulton are scheduled to meet for a final debate before the Sept. 1 primary on Thursday from 8 to 9 p.m. on WCVB, in partnership with WBUR and The Boston Globe. The live televised debate, moderated by WCVB anchor Ed Harding, will be livestreamed on WCVB.com, WBUR.org, and Globe.com, and broadcast live on WBUR 90.9FM.
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