By Zoey
As summer begins to wind down, millions of Americans are already looking ahead to cooler temperatures, changing leaves and the arrival of fall. For those wondering when the weather will finally begin to feel more like autumn, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its outlook for September and October 2026.
The forecast calls for a highly varied fall across the United States, with no single weather pattern expected to dominate the country. While much of the nation’s interior is projected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, several coastal and eastern areas are expected to be cooler than normal.
Precipitation is also expected to vary considerably. Much of the country is forecast to be drier than average, while wetter conditions are anticipated in portions of the West, the Rocky Mountain region, Texas, parts of the Northeast and southern Florida.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been publishing long-range weather forecasts for generations, divides its outlook into regional patterns that highlight the differences Americans could experience as summer gives way to autumn.
In the Northeast, including Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut, temperatures are expected to remain below average during much of the fall. The region is also forecast to receive more precipitation than normal, potentially creating an early taste of the cool, damp conditions often associated with late autumn.
Along the Atlantic Corridor, which extends from Virginia north through Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, temperatures are also expected to run below average. September and October are projected to be cooler and drier than normal, meaning residents could experience cooler weather without the corresponding increase in rainfall.
The Appalachian region, including portions of western New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina, is expected to begin the season on the cooler side. September temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal, with precipitation also expected to remain below average during September and October.
The Southeast could experience another relatively dry fall. Rainfall is expected to vary significantly across the region, but much of the area is forecast to receive less precipitation than usual. Northern parts of the Southeast could see rainfall deficits of roughly 2 inches, while some southern areas could receive as much as 4 inches less rain than average.
Temperatures across the Southeast are also expected to remain below normal. Florida could experience a noticeable divide, with northern Florida forecast to be cooler and drier than average. Southern Florida is also expected to be cooler than normal but could receive slightly more rainfall than usual.
In the Lower Great Lakes, including parts of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana, September is expected to bring cooler-than-average temperatures. Conditions are projected to moderate in October, when temperatures could return closer to normal. Rainfall is expected to be near average in September before becoming somewhat drier in October.
The Upper Midwest could see a more noticeable transition as fall progresses. Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Dakotas and northern Michigan are forecast to experience a cooler-than-average September, followed by an October that could become slightly warmer than normal.
Rainfall in the Upper Midwest is expected to increase as the season progresses. September could bring slightly above-average precipitation, with October becoming wetter than normal. The pattern could provide a gradual shift toward the wetter and colder conditions that often precede winter in the northern states.
Across the Deep South, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, September is expected to be cooler and drier than average. October could bring warmer conditions, with temperatures projected to run about 2 degrees above average while precipitation returns closer to normal levels.
Oklahoma and Texas are expected to experience a different pattern. Oklahoma and northern Texas are forecast to be slightly cooler than average during the fall, while rainfall could run as much as 4 inches above normal in some areas.
Southern Texas, meanwhile, is expected to remain warmer than average in both September and October. Rainfall in southern portions of the state could also be slightly above normal.
The Heartland, covering portions of Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas and southwestern Wisconsin, is expected to experience a split between northern and southern areas. Northern portions could be slightly warmer than average, while areas farther south are expected to trend somewhat cooler.
Rainfall in the Heartland is forecast to be below average in September before shifting toward wetter conditions in October. By the latter part of the season, some areas could receive approximately an inch more precipitation than normal.
The Ohio Valley is expected to follow a somewhat similar pattern. The region, which includes much of Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana and Illinois, could experience a cooler-than-average September before temperatures move closer to normal in October.
The region is also expected to remain relatively dry. Western portions could receive as much as 3 inches less precipitation than average, while eastern areas are forecast to be somewhat drier than normal.
The High Plains could experience a warmer and drier fall. The region, stretching from Texas and New Mexico northward toward the Canadian border, is expected to see above-average temperatures during September and October. Rainfall is also forecast to remain below normal throughout the season.
The Intermountain West could see one of the more pronounced temperature differences across a single region. Northern areas are expected to be cooler than average, while southern portions could remain warmer. Despite the temperature divide, precipitation across much of the region is expected to be slightly above average.
The Pacific Northwest could receive some relief from dry conditions as fall arrives. Oregon and Washington have experienced significant wildfire concerns, and the forecast calls for a cooler and wetter-than-average beginning to the season.
September could bring particularly wet conditions in the Pacific Northwest, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 3 inches more precipitation than normal. The wetter pattern could provide some relief following a difficult wildfire season, although weather conditions can vary substantially from one location to another.
California and the broader Pacific Southwest are expected to see a gradual cooling trend. September temperatures are forecast to remain close to average before becoming slightly cooler in October.
Rainfall could vary considerably across California, with northern parts of the state expected to trend wetter than normal while southern areas remain drier.
The Desert Southwest is expected to follow a different pattern. September could be warmer than average before temperatures ease somewhat in October. Despite the temperature change, dry conditions are expected to persist throughout the fall, with below-average precipitation forecast.
Alaska is expected to experience its own transition toward winter. Northern Alaska could trend cooler than average, while southern portions of the state are projected to be slightly warmer than normal. Overall precipitation is expected to be below average, although some northern areas could experience their first snowfall of the season as early winter conditions begin to emerge.
Hawaii will remain much different from the mainland as autumn arrives. While September and October typically bring noticeable seasonal changes across much of the continental United States, Hawaii will continue to experience its tropical climate.
The islands are nevertheless forecast to experience slightly cooler-than-average temperatures during September and October. Eastern portions of Hawaii could receive as much as 4 inches more rainfall than normal.
The long-range outlook also raises the possibility of a tropical storm affecting Hawaii around the middle of September, although long-range forecasts cannot determine the exact timing, strength or path of a storm that far in advance.
Overall, the 2026 fall forecast points toward a season of sharp regional contrasts. Much of the nation’s interior could remain warmer than average, while the East and parts of the Pacific Coast are expected to experience cooler conditions. At the same time, dry weather is projected across broad sections of the country, with wetter conditions concentrated in selected areas.
For Americans eager for the arrival of autumn, the forecast suggests that the transition will not happen at the same pace everywhere. Some communities could experience crisp, cool weather early in September, while others may hold on to summer-like temperatures well into October.
The forecast is also a reminder that long-range outlooks provide broad trends rather than precise day-to-day predictions. Actual temperatures, rainfall and storm activity can change as the season approaches, meaning residents should continue monitoring updated forecasts from official weather agencies for decisions involving severe weather, travel and outdoor activities.
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