By Lisa Haven
Something rather interesting—and undeniably bizarre—is unfolding right now, and the timing is raising some serious questions.
NASA researchers are warning that scientists may have drastically underestimated the potential effects of an extreme solar storm. According to the newly reported findings, a powerful event could place satellites, communication networks, GPS navigation systems and the electrical grid at far greater risk than previously believed.
At nearly the same time, an unusual online warning system is making headlines. The website tracks the private jets of billionaires and other wealthy individuals, looking for a sudden and abnormal surge in departures.
The theory is simple: If a large number of the world’s wealthiest and best-connected people suddenly begin leaving major cities at the same time, could it be an indication that they know something the rest of the public does not?
Are these two developments completely unrelated, or should we be paying closer attention to the warning signs unfolding around us?
NASA Researchers Question Previous Solar Storm Assumptions
Researchers connected to NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center are warning that miscalculations and incorrect assumptions may have caused scientists to underestimate the worst-case effects of an extreme solar storm.
Solar storms occur when the sun releases massive bursts of energy, charged particles and magnetic fields. These events can include solar flares and coronal mass ejections, commonly referred to as CMEs.
When those particles interact with Earth, they can potentially affect satellites, cellphones, computers, vehicles, aircraft, fuel pumps, power stations and other electronic systems that modern society relies on every day.
For years, one prevailing theory suggested there was a limit to how much energy from the solar wind could be transferred into Earth’s polar ionosphere. In other words, scientists believed our planet’s response would eventually reach a maximum point.
However, researchers are now questioning whether that upper limit actually exists.
After examining more than one million data points collected by spacecraft orbiting Earth, the researchers reportedly found a direct relationship between the strength of the solar wind and electrical currents in the upper atmosphere. The relationship did not appear to weaken as the solar wind became more powerful.
According to the researchers, there is currently no statistical evidence proving that an upper limit exists.
Lucy, we may have a little bit of a problem.
Scientists Do Not Know Exactly How Bad It Could Become
Dr. Maria Walach, a co-author of the study from Lancaster University, explained that Earth’s magnetic field normally does an excellent job protecting the planet from space-weather effects.
However, extremely powerful events can cause satellites to unexpectedly lose altitude, disrupt communications and interfere with GPS signals.
If there is no clear upper limit to Earth’s response to the solar wind, scientists may need to reconsider how they model the most extreme solar events.
The good news is that these events are exceptionally rare. The bad news is that their rarity means researchers have very little real-world data showing exactly what would happen during a once-in-a-thousand-year solar storm.
To put that simply, Earth’s magnetic field normally protects us. But if an unusually powerful storm struck the planet, scientists cannot say with certainty how severe the consequences would become.
It could disrupt satellites, communications, navigation and portions of the electrical grid—but because we have so little data from events of that magnitude, researchers simply do not know where the damage would stop.
What Would Happen to the Electrical Grid?
Organizations such as the Foundation for Resilient Societies have spent years examining how governments and utility companies can better protect the electrical grid from geomagnetic disturbances.
One of its reports estimated that the risk of a severe solar storm capable of permanently damaging portions of the Northern Hemisphere’s electrical grids could be approximately 10 percent per decade.
That percentage may sound low, but the potential consequences are significant.
The most famous historical example is the Carrington Event of 1859. That storm caused telegraph systems to malfunction and, in some cases, reportedly produce sparks. If a similar event happened today, it would encounter a world filled with satellites, computers, transformers and interconnected digital infrastructure.
A 2013 assessment involving Lloyd’s of London and researchers from Atmospheric and Environmental Research examined what a Carrington-level storm could mean for the United States.
The assessment estimated that between 20 million and 40 million people could potentially experience extended electrical outages. Depending on the severity of the damage and the availability of replacement equipment, those disruptions could last anywhere from several days to many months.
The potential economic losses were estimated in the trillions of dollars.
Some modeling identified areas along the Atlantic corridor between New York and Washington, D.C., as particularly vulnerable. Parts of the Midwest, including Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as areas along the Gulf Coast, were also described as facing elevated risks.
Minnesota and portions of the New England coastline may also face a greater risk of cascading outages during an extreme geomagnetic storm.
There Is Still Some Good News
None of this means that an extreme solar storm is about to happen.
It also does not mean that governments and energy companies are completely defenseless.
Equipment designed to protect critical infrastructure from electromagnetic pulses, sudden voltage surges and similar disturbances may also help reduce damage from geomagnetic events.
Researchers, engineers and resilience organizations are continuing to investigate ways to harden transformers, protect electrical substations and strengthen the systems responsible for keeping the grid operating.
The goal is not to create unnecessary panic. It is to acknowledge that extreme solar storms have happened before and that modern society is far more dependent on vulnerable technology than it was during previous events.
Preparing before something happens is always better than attempting to rebuild afterward.
A Billionaire Jet Tracker Becomes an Online Warning System
While this solar-storm research was making headlines, programmer Kyle McDonald launched an unusual website that monitors private and business aircraft around the world.
The system reportedly tracks more than 31,000 aircraft and measures how many are in the air at any given time. It then compares that activity with historical patterns, searching for an unusual spike in departures.
Why track billionaire jets?
McDonald’s theory is that the movement of wealthy and well-connected individuals could reveal approaching trouble before government officials or the broader public recognize it.
If the world’s richest people believed that a major crisis was approaching, they might leave large population centers, travel to secure properties or relocate to private shelters.
Their aircraft could reveal that movement.
Let’s face it: If we want to know what is really happening in the world, sometimes it is worth watching what the billionaires are doing.
Their wealth gives them access to information, transportation and private shelters that most ordinary citizens do not have. Many wealthy individuals have invested significant amounts of money in remote properties, underground facilities and other forms of emergency preparation.
If a large number of those individuals suddenly started moving at the same time, it would certainly raise eyebrows.
How the Tracker Works
The website assigns global private-jet activity an alert level ranging from one to five.
A lower level indicates relatively normal activity. A higher level would be triggered if the number of private aircraft in the sky increased dramatically beyond historical averages.
Level five represents the most extreme warning.
The system does not claim to know why the aircraft are moving. A spike could have an innocent explanation involving a major international event, holiday travel, severe weather or a gathering attended by wealthy individuals.
However, the tracker gives the public another piece of information to examine.
McDonald created the system independently, allowing ordinary people to monitor patterns that were once far more difficult to observe.
If private jets suddenly begin leaving major cities in unusually large numbers and the system issues its highest alert, Lucy, we may have a problem.
At the very least, we would know that something unusual was happening.
Are These Two Stories Connected?
There is currently no evidence that NASA’s solar-storm warning and the billionaire aircraft tracker are directly connected.
The launch of the tracker does not mean billionaires are currently fleeing from a solar event, and NASA’s research does not mean a destructive storm is immediately approaching Earth.
However, both stories highlight the same underlying concern: How much would the public know before a truly major event?
NASA’s researchers are admitting that the most extreme solar storms remain difficult to model because scientists have very little data from events of that magnitude.
At the same time, an independent programmer is attempting to create an additional warning signal by watching the movements of people who may have access to resources and information unavailable to everyone else.
The two developments may be completely coincidental.
Still, the timing is interesting.
Information and Preparation Matter
Coronal mass ejections and geomagnetic storms are a natural part of the sun’s behavior. Most pass without producing severe consequences on Earth, and the planet’s magnetic field protects us from many of their effects.
Nevertheless, history shows that powerful solar events can happen.
The real question is whether our increasingly technological society is adequately prepared for one.
The good news is that scientists are continuing to study the risks, organizations are working to strengthen the electrical grid and members of the public now have access to more information than ever before.
The billionaire jet tracker may never issue a meaningful warning. It could simply remain an interesting experiment in analyzing aircraft activity.
But if the world’s wealthiest and best-connected individuals suddenly start heading for the exits at the same time, it may be worth paying attention.
These stories do not prove that a major event is approaching. They do, however, remind us that remaining informed, watching the available evidence and preparing responsibly are never bad ideas.
Because when it comes to a once-in-a-thousand-year event, scientists themselves are admitting that only time will tell exactly what could happen.
Original article
Comments