A Senate hearing examined the risk that a major electromagnetic pulse or geomagnetic disturbance could disable the electric grid, with witnesses warning that a prolonged nationwide blackout could be catastrophic.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A major electromagnetic pulse or severe geomagnetic disturbance could cripple the U.S. electric grid and lead to mass casualties if power remained out for an extended period, according to testimony reviewed by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., chairman of the committee, said such an event is certain to occur at some point in the future. A Power Magazine report highlighted warnings from experts who testified about the potential consequences of a long-term grid failure caused by an electromagnetic pulse, known as an EMP, or a geomagnetic disturbance, known as a GMD.
Johnson asked R. James Woolsey, chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former CIA director, what could happen if the electric grid were disabled for a year or two after an EMP event.
Woolsey said prior commission estimates described a scenario of widespread death caused by loss of food, water and social order.
“It’s briefly dealt with in the commission report of [2008]. There are essentially two estimates on how many people would die from hunger, from starvation, from lack of water, and from social disruption. One estimate is that within a year or so, two-thirds of the United States population would die. The other estimate is that within a year or so, 90% of the U.S. population would die. We’re talking about total devastation. We’re not talking about just a regular catastrophe,” Woolsey said.
Witnesses told the committee that EMP and GMD events can arise from different sources.
Joseph H. McClelland, director of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Infrastructure Security, said geomagnetic disturbances are naturally occurring events caused by solar magnetic activity that disrupts Earth’s magnetic field. Those disruptions can induce currents on the electric grid and potentially damage or destroy major transformers across a wide area.
An EMP can be caused by man-made devices ranging from portable battery-powered systems to missiles carrying nuclear warheads. Smaller devices can generate localized bursts capable of disrupting or destroying electronics, including control systems used on the electric grid.
A nuclear detonation can generate a much broader EMP with three different effects. The first, known as E1, is a short, high-energy radio frequency burst that can destroy electronics. The second, known as E2, is similar to lightning. The third, known as E3, resembles a geomagnetic disturbance and can affect major grid equipment, including transformers.
Any of those effects can create voltage instability and wide-area blackouts.
Richard L. Garwin, fellow emeritus at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, said the risk is not speculative.
“Very serious consequences are estimated for such an event of a magnitude that can be expected to occur at random once per century, with greater events occurring with lower probability and lesser events more frequently,” Garwin said.
Witnesses also reviewed past events that show how damaging geomagnetic disturbances can be.
The largest recorded solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred in 1859 before the modern electric grid existed. McClelland estimated it was roughly a K8 or K9 event on the K-index scale, which measures disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field from 0 to 9. Johnson noted that G3-level events occur regularly.
“The only long wires in those days were telegraph wires,” Garwin said. “No grid to bring down, no pipelines, but it did play havoc with telegraph wires—burned up some telegraph offices—and it would be much, much, much worse [now]. It would collapse societies.”
Another significant event occurred in 1921. McClelland said he did not have a precise rating for that storm during the hearing but estimated it at about 5,000 nanoTesla, below the strength of the Carrington Event.
In 1989, a geomagnetic storm caused the entire Quebec grid in Canada to collapse in 93 seconds. About 6 million customers lost power for roughly 10 hours, and cost estimates ranged from $1 billion to $2 billion despite relatively minor equipment damage. McClelland said the 1989 event was about one-tenth the size of the 1921 event. Other sources have estimated that the 1989 storm was about one-third as intense as the Carrington Event.
A lower-level event in 2003 affected South Africa’s grid. McClelland said it was about one-fiftieth the size of the 1921 event but lasted for days. The grid did not collapse, but prolonged exposure damaged equipment, and 12 transformers failed over several months.
Johnson said Lloyd’s of London estimates that G3-type events cause about $2 billion in damage annually. He also noted that a large solar event in 2012 narrowly missed Earth.
“On July 23, 2012, there was a Carrington-level event. It missed us by three days,” Woolsey said, attributing the information to a friend who had alerted him to it.
Experts told the committee that the scale of the threat can make it difficult for policymakers and the public to confront.
“People tend to think of it as science fiction,” Woolsey said. “People get into not wanting to think about it, not wanting to worry about it, because it’s too terrible.”
Despite the potential severity, witnesses said protective measures are available.
Garwin recommended training and equipping utility and transmission operators to shut off vulnerable transmission lines within seconds when needed. He also called for rapid “islanding” of the grid, which would separate parts of the system to keep as many customers online as possible and make restoration easier than a full black start.
He further recommended installing neutral current blocking devices on priority transmission lines to protect extra-high-voltage transformers. In cases where that is not possible, series-blocking capacitors could be installed in power lines.
Garwin also said grid operators and other officials should receive alerts within milliseconds of a high-altitude nuclear explosion through detection of the brief E1 pulse.
Johnson noted during the hearing that neutral current blocking devices could cost about $100,000 per transformer and that roughly 200 critical transformers would need protection. He described that cost as small compared with the federal budget.
Garwin agreed, saying the devices are inexpensive compared with transformer replacement costs of about $7 million each and far cheaper than the potential damage from a major grid failure.
Johnson said the federal government has not done enough to address vulnerabilities identified in earlier studies.
“We need to start implementing some protections,” Johnson said.
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