Intelligence officials from two NATO countries have warned that Russia may be preparing a limited operation involving provocation, sabotage, cyberattacks or airspace violations aimed at testing the alliance’s unity.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Western intelligence officials are warning that Russia may be preparing a limited hybrid provocation against NATO’s eastern flank as Moscow looks for ways to test the alliance’s resolve without opening a full conventional war with the West.
The concern centers on possible Russian activity targeting the Baltic states or Poland, according to reporting by The Guardian. Officials from two NATO countries have raised alarms that Moscow may be considering an operation intended to probe NATO’s unity as the war in Ukraine moves into a new phase.
The warnings do not point to an imminent full-scale Russian military attack on NATO territory. Instead, officials and analysts believe Moscow is more likely to consider actions designed to stay below the threshold of direct war while still creating uncertainty, fear and political pressure inside the alliance.
Latvian intelligence said this week it had detected signs that Russia was preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. A senior political source from another NATO country also said Russian President Vladimir Putin may be looking for a way to test NATO’s commitment by targeting some of the alliance’s smaller members.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged the growing concern after a summit of eastern NATO members in Gdansk, warning that the security situation in the region had become more unstable. Tusk said further escalation could be expected in the coming weeks and months.
Russia’s military remains heavily engaged in Ukraine, making a second conventional front unlikely, officials said. But intelligence officials and military analysts said the Kremlin could turn to hybrid tactics, including drone incursions, missile launches, sabotage, cyber operations, GPS interference or disinformation campaigns.
Such actions could be used to intimidate NATO governments, strain alliance decision-making and weaken public support for continued military aid to Ukraine.
The warnings come as Ukraine has expanded its long-range strike capabilities. Ukrainian drone operations have increasingly reached deep into Russian territory, with recent attacks reportedly targeting infrastructure around Moscow and St. Petersburg. Western officials are concerned that pressure on the Kremlin could lead Moscow to retaliate outside Ukraine through indirect or deniable operations.
Russia has previously been linked to hybrid activity across Europe. In 2024, European investigators connected Russian intelligence operatives to parcel bomb incidents involving DHL logistics shipments in Poland, Germany and the United Kingdom. The incidents involved incendiary devices hidden inside cargo parcels and were widely viewed as a coordinated sabotage effort aimed at disrupting European transport systems.
Poland has also faced repeated airspace violations. Last year, NATO aircraft were scrambled after several Russian decoy drones entered Polish territory during a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine. Authorities issued public shelter warnings in several eastern provinces.
European security officials have also attributed cyberattacks, GPS jamming affecting civilian aviation over the Baltic Sea and coordinated disinformation campaigns to Russian state or state-backed actors.
Suspicious damage to undersea telecommunications cables and critical infrastructure in the Baltic region has further increased concern. Those incidents have led NATO to expand surveillance and maritime patrols in the area.
Military analysts say the danger of hybrid operations lies in their ambiguity. Such attacks are often designed to create disruption and political pressure while stopping short of actions that would clearly trigger NATO’s collective-defense obligations under Article 5.
Keir Giles, a Russia specialist at Chatham House, told The Guardian that Moscow may be searching for ways to shift the strategic balance as its offensive in Ukraine loses momentum. Rather than accepting setbacks on the battlefield, he said, Russia may pursue “horizontal escalation” by creating crises elsewhere in Europe.
NATO leaders are expected to address the threat at an upcoming summit in Ankara. Strengthening eastern defenses, improving resilience against sabotage, expanding cyber protections and countering disinformation are expected to be central topics.
The warnings from Latvia and another NATO member underscore a growing concern across Europe: Russia may not need to launch a traditional invasion to test NATO’s unity. A smaller provocation, if timed carefully and carried out through hybrid means, could still force the alliance to confront difficult questions over deterrence, escalation and collective response.
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