BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA
At the beginning of the decade, Latin America appeared to be entering a new political era as left-leaning governments swept into power across many of the region’s largest economies.
Frustration over widening inequality, economic hardship intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic, and demands for greater social justice propelled progressive leaders to victory in countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.
Just a few years later, however, the political landscape is undergoing another dramatic transformation. Across much of the region, growing public anxiety over crime, organized violence, illegal immigration and weakening public security has fueled a resurgence of conservative populist movements promising tougher law enforcement, stricter border controls and uncompromising crackdowns on criminal organizations.
Although overall homicide rates across Latin America have generally declined compared with a decade ago, new waves of organized crime, extortion, kidnappings and drug trafficking have altered public perceptions of safety. Many voters now rank security as their most pressing concern, creating fertile ground for politicians who advocate aggressive policing measures and tougher criminal justice policies.
Conservative candidates throughout the region have increasingly modeled their campaigns on the security strategy employed by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose aggressive campaign against gangs has attracted widespread international attention. His approach, centered on mass arrests, expanded prison facilities and emergency security measures, has become a reference point for politicians seeking to convince voters that decisive action can quickly restore order.
These campaigns have also echoed themes popularized in U.S. conservative politics, particularly arguments linking illegal immigration with rising crime. Such messaging has resonated with many frustrated voters despite warnings from human rights organizations that overly aggressive security policies could erode democratic institutions, weaken judicial oversight and increase the risk of civil liberties violations.
Enrique Roig, vice president of the nonprofit organization Human Rights First and a former U.S. State Department official, said a growing alliance has emerged among conservative political movements throughout the Americas.
According to Roig, right-wing political forces increasingly cooperate across national borders while using crime as a powerful campaign issue. He argued that governments often find it politically easier to promise mass arrests than to address the social and economic conditions that push many young people toward organized criminal groups.
Security has become one of the defining issues in election campaigns across Latin America.
Political analyst Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America noted that conservative candidates often present voters with immediate and visible security measures, while progressive proposals typically emphasize long-term investments such as community violence prevention, police reform, judicial modernization and prison rehabilitation.
While those reforms may ultimately produce more sustainable improvements, they require years to demonstrate results. In contrast, promises of military deployments, expanded policing and tougher sentencing offer voters the perception of immediate action.
That contrast has helped conservative candidates gain momentum in several key elections.
In Colombia, businessman Abelardo de la Espriella has emerged as a leading presidential contender while openly embracing security policies similar to Bukele’s approach.
In Peru, former presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori returned to the political spotlight after campaigning on promises to deploy the military to prisons and border regions in response to rapidly increasing extortion and organized crime. Her campaign has also drawn upon the legacy of her late father, former President Alberto Fujimori, whose administration became known for its hardline security policies despite later becoming deeply controversial.
Costa Rica also experienced a political shift after conservative candidate Laura Fernández secured victory amid growing public concern over drug-related violence and record homicide levels.
Meanwhile, Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura won his country’s presidential election after emphasizing strong anti-crime policies and strengthening cooperation with the United States in combating organized crime and narcotics trafficking.
Behind these political developments lies the growing influence of transnational criminal organizations.
Although Latin America and the Caribbean recorded an overall decline in average homicide rates last year, violence remains concentrated in several strategic drug trafficking corridors.
Peru, Colombia and Ecuador have all experienced significant increases in drug-related killings. Colombia and Peru remain among the world’s largest cocaine producers, while Ecuador has become an increasingly important transit hub for cocaine shipments destined for European markets.
Authorities reported thousands of homicides in both Peru and Colombia during the past year, marking the highest totals recorded in several years. Ecuador experienced one of the region’s sharpest increases, with killings rising by more than 30 percent compared with the previous year.
Much of Ecuador’s escalating violence has been linked to fierce competition among international drug cartels seeking control of trafficking routes through the country’s ports. Criminal organizations from Mexico, Colombia and the Balkans have expanded their operations, recruiting local gangs and fueling violent territorial disputes.
The country’s prison system has become another major battleground, where deadly clashes between rival gangs have claimed hundreds of lives since 2021.
Extortion has also emerged as one of the fastest-growing crimes throughout the region. Although official figures suggest reported extortion cases declined in Ecuador last year, experts believe many incidents remain unreported because victims fear retaliation from criminal groups.
Chile illustrates how rapidly public opinion has shifted.
Only a few years ago, Chilean voters elected progressive leader Gabriel Boric after rejecting conservative candidate José Antonio Kast. Boric campaigned on reducing inequality and expanding social reforms following widespread public protests.
However, rising concerns about crime and illegal immigration dramatically altered the political climate. The arrival of Venezuelan criminal organizations, including the notorious Tren de Aragua gang, coincided with increases in kidnappings, armed robberies, carjackings and organized criminal activity that were previously uncommon in Chile.
Although Chile’s homicide rate has declined from its recent peak, it remains above historical levels. Other violent crimes, particularly kidnappings, have continued to rise sharply over the past several years.
Capitalizing on those concerns, Kast returned to the political forefront by promising stricter immigration controls, harsher prison conditions for gang members, construction of a fortified northern border barrier and large-scale deportations of undocumented migrants.
Many voters ultimately prioritized security over social issues, allowing Kast to defeat his left-wing opponent despite criticism of his conservative positions on abortion, same-sex marriage and his defense of aspects of former dictator Augusto Pinochet’s military government.
Peru has witnessed a similar trend. A dramatic increase in violent crime has strengthened support for Keiko Fujimori, whose “Peru with Order” campaign emphasized restoring public safety through stronger law enforcement and military involvement.
Political analysts argue that these developments reflect growing public frustration with democratic institutions that many citizens believe have failed to guarantee basic security.
Eduardo Moncada, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, said many citizens increasingly question whether democratic governments are capable of protecting their families from criminal violence. As confidence in public institutions declines, support for more authoritarian approaches to public security has grown.
This changing political environment presents a significant challenge for Latin America’s progressive governments, many of which have struggled with sluggish economic growth, corruption scandals and difficulties implementing promised social reforms.
Even some center-left leaders have adjusted their rhetoric to reflect growing public concern over security. Politicians who once criticized aggressive policing have become more willing to endorse tougher anti-crime initiatives, while governments have expanded emergency powers and strengthened cooperation with international partners in combating organized crime.
Despite the popularity of hardline campaign promises, governing has proven considerably more difficult.
In Ecuador, President Daniel Noboa entered office promising ambitious anti-gang initiatives, including floating prison facilities and massive new detention centers. Financial constraints and institutional limitations forced his administration to scale back several proposals, while construction of new prison infrastructure progressed more slowly than originally promised.
Analysts say Ecuador’s economic challenges and democratic institutions have limited the government’s ability to fully replicate El Salvador’s highly centralized security model.
Chile has encountered similar obstacles.
Several months into President Kast’s administration, critics argue that many of his most ambitious campaign pledges have yet to materialize. Large-scale deportations have proceeded far more slowly than promised, and only a limited number of deportation flights have been carried out despite campaign commitments to rapidly remove hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants.
Kast has also moderated some of his rhetoric since taking office, acknowledging that governing requires balancing political promises with legal, financial and institutional realities. While his administration continues to introduce new public security measures, including stricter penalties for attacks on police officers and expanded law enforcement powers, officials have increasingly emphasized that meaningful improvements in public safety cannot be achieved overnight.
As Latin America prepares for more elections in the coming years, crime and public security are expected to remain dominant political issues. The region’s shifting electoral landscape suggests that concerns over violence, organized crime and migration will continue shaping governments and redefining the balance between public safety, democratic governance and human rights.
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