With the Chinese Communist Party’s 21st National Congress just over a year away, independent commentator Du Zheng has warned that the regime is sliding into a serious personnel breakdown. He argues that Xi Jinping, facing a shortage of trusted successors and deepening internal distrust, may prove to be the CCP’s final paramount leader.
Xi Sticks with ‘Acquaintance Politics’ Despite Growing Problems
Du Zheng notes that Xi Jinping’s core personnel principle has always been to appoint people with whom he has personal ties and a record of good relations. This “acquaintance politics” has recently run into setbacks, yet Xi continues to favor familiar faces because of his deep suspicion of outsiders and fear of the unknown.
As a result, the next Politburo Standing Committee is expected to be dominated by old faces. Age limits have effectively been abandoned after Xi himself broke the previous retirement norms. The main considerations are stability and the need to maintain a team capable of advancing the CCP’s “peaceful unification” strategy toward Taiwan through united-front and infiltration tactics.
Estimated Lineup for the Next Standing Committee
Du Zheng’s projected 21st Central Committee Politburo Standing Committee (combined with appointments expected at the following year’s “Two Sessions”) is as follows:
- Xi Jinping – continuing as General Secretary, President, and Central Military Commission Chairman.
- Li Qiang – continuing as Premier.
- Cai Qi – moving to Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
- Ding Xuexiang – moving to Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
- Executive Vice Premier – either Zhang Guoqing or Liu Guozhong.
- Li Shulei – promoted to First Secretary of the Central Secretariat.
- Either Zhao Yide or Xu Lin – becoming Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
Wang Huning may be given the largely ceremonial post of State Vice President but with real influence retained, such as continuing to head the Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission — a more substantive role than those held by previous vice presidents Wang Qishan or Han Zheng.
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