BY OGBONNA COMFORT
Oil prices showed little overall movement on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses as skepticism grew over the chances of a breakthrough in peace talks between the United States and Iran. Investors remain uncertain that negotiations will succeed in ending the conflict that has severely constrained oil output from one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions.
Brent crude futures slipped by 26 cents to $94.67 per barrel as of 0611 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 14 cents to $91.43 per barrel. Both benchmarks had settled nearly unchanged the previous day, although trading was marked by significant volatility, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in global energy markets.
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered what analysts describe as the largest disruption to global oil and gas supplies in modern history. At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran’s interference with shipping traffic through the strait has sharply reduced the flow of energy supplies, sending shockwaves through global markets.
Despite occasional optimism about de-escalation, market participants remain cautious. Analysts point out that previous rounds of U.S.–Iran negotiations have repeatedly collapsed, even after appearing to make progress. This pattern has reinforced doubts about whether a lasting agreement can be achieved anytime soon.
As a result, oil prices are expected to remain volatile. Some analysts suggest that U.S. crude could continue fluctuating within a broad range of $80 to $100 per barrel until there is clear evidence of a durable peace agreement and the full restoration of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent estimates indicate that approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil flows have been disrupted due to the partial closure of the strait. While some oil has been rerouted through alternative pipelines and a limited number of tankers have managed to pass through, these measures have only partially offset the supply shortfall. The situation remains fragile, and any further escalation could deepen the disruption.
The outlook worsened following the announcement of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports after peace talks broke down over the weekend. This move is expected to further restrict oil exports from the region, tightening global supply even more. Analysts warn that the physical oil market is becoming increasingly constrained with each passing day that normal shipping routes remain blocked.
There are, however, tentative signs of possible compromise. Sources familiar with discussions in Tehran have indicated that Iran may consider allowing limited shipping through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement can be reached to prevent renewed hostilities. Such a development could provide some relief to global markets, though it remains contingent on successful diplomatic efforts.
Efforts to revive negotiations are ongoing. Officials from both the United States and Iran are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for another round of talks as early as the coming weekend. Diplomatic activity has intensified, with Pakistan’s army chief visiting Tehran in an attempt to mediate and prevent a resurgence of conflict following a temporary ceasefire that began on April 8.
Meanwhile, U.S. policy continues to exert additional pressure on global supply. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Washington will not renew waivers that previously allowed certain countries to purchase Iranian and Russian oil without facing sanctions. This decision is expected to further limit available supply on the global market.
Adding to concerns about tightening conditions, recent data showed declines in U.S. inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuels. According to the Energy Information Administration, imports fell while exports surged as countries sought alternative sources to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies. This imbalance underscores the growing strain on global energy systems.
Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a market caught between fragile diplomacy and mounting supply pressures. Until a clear resolution emerges and key shipping routes are fully restored, oil prices are likely to remain unpredictable, with traders closely watching every signal from ongoing geopolitical negotiations.
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