By Elsie Kamsiyochi

At least 40% of Russia’s total oil export capacity has been forced offline, marking one of the most severe energy disruptions in the country’s modern history.

According to new Reuters calculations based on market and industry data, a combination of Ukrainian drone attacks, damage to the strategic Druzhba pipeline, and a series of tanker seizures across Europe has significantly reduced Russia’s ability to move crude to global markets.

The timing is particularly painful for Moscow. The shutdown coincides with oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel, fuelled in part by growing instability in the Middle East and the intensifying Iran conflict. Oil exports make up one of Russia’s most vital sources of revenue and support its $2.6 trillion economy, meaning the current disruption could have serious long-term economic implications.

Ukraine Intensifies Strikes on Russian Energy Targets

Throughout March, Ukraine has sharply escalated its campaign of long-range drone strikes aimed at degrading Russia’s oil and fuel export systems.
All three of Russia’s major western export hubs—Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea—have been hit.

Reuters estimates that around 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude export capacity was offline as of Wednesday, following another major drone strike on Ust-Luga. This accounts for roughly 40% of Russia’s outward crude oil flow, highlighting the scale of vulnerability in the country’s energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has openly stated that its objective is to undermine Moscow’s war financing, noting that oil and gas revenues make up about one-quarter of Russia’s state budget.
Russia, however, has condemned the attacks as acts of terrorism and has tightened security across its vast territory, which spans 11 time zones.

Pipeline Damage Adds New Pressure

Compounding the port shutdowns, the Druzhba pipeline—one of the world’s largest oil pipeline systems—has also been disrupted.
Ukraine reported in January that part of the pipeline had been damaged by Russian military strikes, interrupting flows to Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries, which rely heavily on Russian crude, have urged Kyiv to restore operations as quickly as possible.

The Druzhba system is a critical route for land-based shipments, and its reduced functionality puts additional strain on Russia’s already-limited export alternatives.

Tanker Seizures Disrupt Arctic Oil Flows

As the war-related tensions spill over into Europe, tanker seizures by European navies have increasingly hindered Russia’s exports.
According to traders, around 300,000 barrels per day of Arctic crude shipped from the port of Murmansk are currently affected. Some vessels have been detained under suspicion of using false flags or breaching sanctions restrictions.

These interruptions further narrow Moscow’s options for moving oil westward.

Asia Remains Russia’s Lifeline — but Capacity Is Limited

With the European-facing routes under attack or blocked, Russia has become even more reliant on Asian buyers, particularly China.
However, these eastern export channels have limited capacity and cannot fully replace the lost western routes.

Current uninterrupted flows to Asia include:

  • Pipelines to China such as the Skovorodino–Mohe and Atasu–Alashankou routes
  • ESPO Blend crude exports shipped from Kozmino port
  • Sakhalin projects, exporting about 250,000 bpd
  • Supplying Belarusian refineries with an estimated 300,000 bpd

Altogether, these eastern outlets handle nearly 1.9 million barrels per day, but analysts warn that Russia is nearing its logistical limits without substantial infrastructure upgrades.

A Strategic Turning Point for Russia’s Energy Sector

The combination of drone strikes, pipeline damage, and tanker seizures represents a pivotal moment for Russia’s oil industry. It raises urgent questions about the country’s ability to safeguard its most valuable economic asset while facing increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian attacks and rising geopolitical pressure.

With global oil markets tightening and war-related risks escalating, the current disruption may reshape energy trade dynamics for months or even years to come.

Source Reuters

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