By Emmanuel Bobby
President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to take place under heightened geopolitical tension following U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran that killed the country’s China-friendly supreme leader.
The development marks the second time in two months that the United States has taken military action against a key economic partner of China. In January, U.S. forces also carried out a surprise operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Despite its close economic ties with both Iran and Venezuela, China has largely limited its response to strong diplomatic statements, similar to its reaction after the operation in Caracas.
Nicholas Burns, who served as the U.S. ambassador to China under President Joe Biden, criticized Beijing’s muted reaction, writing on X that China is “proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies.”
Trade Talks Still Expected to Move Forward
Experts say that while China is closely monitoring the escalating conflict involving Iran, Beijing may not consider the issue significant enough to jeopardize Trump’s planned visit. The White House has said the trip is scheduled to begin on March 31, although Chinese officials have not formally confirmed the dates.
Both Trump and Xi are reportedly seeking to extend a fragile trade truce between the world’s two largest economies.
“I haven’t heard any plan to delay or derail that visit,” said Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization think tank.
According to Wang, the Iran crisis could even increase the urgency of a meeting between China, the Middle East’s largest trading partner, and the United States, which remains the region’s most significant security power.
China’s Relationship With Iran
China has long opposed Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, but it has maintained strong economic ties with Tehran. The two countries signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021, and China has played a diplomatic role in the region, including helping broker the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran also remains a key energy supplier for Beijing. Roughly 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports are sent to China, the world’s largest energy importer. However, Iranian oil still accounts for only about 13% of China’s total oil imports.
Peiyu Yang, an assistant professor of Arabic studies at George Mason University who researches China’s historical ties with the Middle East, said the relationship is largely pragmatic.
“It’s not based on ideology,” Yang said. “It’s more based on economic interest.”
Beijing Condemns Strikes but Avoids Confrontation
China has condemned the U.S.-Israeli strikes, describing them as violations of Iran’s sovereignty and international law. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the encouragement of regime change “unacceptable.”
Still, analysts say Beijing has so far offered little beyond rhetorical support for Tehran, highlighting its reluctance to directly challenge U.S. military operations abroad.
Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow at the Chatham House research institute in London, said many countries understand the limits of China’s role as a security partner.
“These countries are not delusional. They know that China cannot be relied on as a security partner,” he said. “They see it as a development partner, an economic partner, a trade partner and a technological partner — but not a military one.”
Concerns About Regional Instability
China has also quietly urged Iran to exercise restraint. During a phone call Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Wang Yi encouraged Tehran to consider the concerns of neighboring countries.
China has major investments in energy-rich Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where Iranian retaliatory strikes have already hit civilian areas.
While Beijing can easily replace Iranian oil imports, the broader Middle East remains critical to its energy supply. About half of China’s oil comes from the region.
Analysts warn that if Iran were to shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes — it could severely disrupt China’s energy supply.
“That could be a major shock to China’s oil supply,” Yang said.
Strategic Implications for China
Some analysts believe China could benefit strategically if the United States becomes tied down in a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict. Such a scenario could reduce Washington’s focus on countering China’s military expansion in the Asia-Pacific.
William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said a prolonged war could ease some of the strategic pressure the United States has placed on China.
A distracted United States could potentially create an opening for Beijing to increase pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that China claims as its territory.
The United States is Taiwan’s primary arms supplier and international supporter, although Washington maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” about whether it would directly defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.
A lengthy Middle East conflict could also deplete U.S. stockpiles of weapons and ammunition that serve as a deterrent to Chinese military action.
China Watching and Waiting
At the same time, the crisis may help China portray itself as a more stable alternative to American leadership, particularly among countries in the Global South.
Aboudouh said Washington’s recent actions in Venezuela and Iran may reinforce perceptions that the United States is willing to use coercive force whenever it sees fit.
For now, analysts say Beijing appears to be taking a cautious wait-and-see approach while the situation in Iran continues to unfold.
Even if Iran eventually installs a government more aligned with the United States, Yang of the International Crisis Group believes China would adapt.
“Beijing will be able to build a pragmatic new relationship with whoever comes into power in Tehran in the end,” he said.
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