President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda has energized opponents, strained Republicans in competitive districts and helped create early warning signs for the GOP as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
Public opinion on the economy, off-cycle election results and an unusually large wave of House departures all point in the same direction: Republicans face a tougher-than-expected fight to hold the U.S. House, even as party strategists argue that special elections and early polling can mislead.
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released in early February showed Trump’s overall job approval at 39%. The same poll found only 36% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while majorities disapproved of his performance on the economy and other issues. Trump has tried to frame his approach — especially tariffs — as pro-worker and pro-manufacturing. But the public has remained skeptical. In that Marist poll, a majority said tariffs or fees on imported products hurt the U.S. economy.
Republicans have also confronted political fallout from immigration enforcement and aggressive federal actions in Democratic-led cities, issues that dominate Trump’s messaging but can polarize voters outside the GOP base. In the same Marist polling, independents and Democrats registered sharp criticism of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, even as Republicans largely stood by the agency.
Democrats have repeatedly exceeded their party’s 2024 baseline in special elections and other off-cycle contests, a pattern that some election analysts view as an early signal of midterm trouble for the party in power.
A Reuters analysis published on Oct. 9, 2025 found Democrats improved their margins across 42 special elections in 2025, outperforming the 2024 presidential results in most of those districts. Reuters noted that Democrats need to flip only 3 Republican-held House seats to regain the majority, though redistricting and turnout differences complicate comparisons.
Republicans have acknowledged that low-turnout elections pose a particular challenge in the Trump era because many of Trump’s supporters vote less reliably when he is not on the ballot. Vice President JD Vance, referencing that dynamic, said on social media earlier in 2025 that Republicans must solve “the political problem” of getting the party’s base to show up in off-cycle races.
Even when Democrats lose, the margins have tightened in places that Trump carried easily. In a Dec. 3, 2025 special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, Republican Matt Van Epps won, but by 9 points — far narrower than Trump’s 22-point margin in the district in 2024, according to Reuters. Democrats have highlighted these results as evidence that Trump’s policies on tariffs, abortion, health care and immigration enforcement create backlash among swing voters. Republicans counter that special elections draw unusually engaged electorates and often turn on local factors and candidate quality.
At the same time, Republicans have watched a growing list of House members announce plans to retire, resign or run for other offices — decisions that can create open-seat races that tend to be more competitive than contests with incumbents.
An Associated Press analysis published in January found more than 10% of House members had already announced they would not seek reelection, the highest rate at that point in a term since at least 2013. The AP said 47 representatives — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans — had announced they would not run again, not including members who resigned or died during the term. Many cited runs for higher office, redistricting changes and the personal toll of Washington.
NPR’s retirement tracker later put the number higher. As of Feb. 6, NPR reported 51 House members and 12 senators had announced they were leaving their current seats by retiring or running for a different office. AP’s running retirement list also underscores how departures can expose Republicans in a cycle when the House majority is slim. The AP tracker notes that retirements and office-seeking are spread across both parties and include longtime leaders as well as newer members.
Polling on a “generic ballot” — which party voters prefer for Congress — has also tilted toward Democrats in some surveys, even as Democratic leaders acknowledge their party’s own brand problems.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Nov. 13, 2025 found Democrats more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans, while also showing Trump’s approval at 40% at the time. The poll identified cost of living as voters’ top concern, a problem that often drives midterm backlash against the White House. Marist polling in late 2025 also showed Democrats with a notable advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
Republicans argue that the map still gives them paths to survive a difficult environment, particularly if the economy improves or if the party can nationalize races around immigration and crime. They also point to redistricting gains in some states. Still, the combination of weak economic approval, tariff skepticism, Democratic overperformance in specials and a thickening list of open seats has raised anxiety inside the party’s campaign apparatus.
As Republicans head into 2026, the central political question may be less whether Trump can dominate the national conversation — he already does — and more whether his agenda helps or hurts the dozens of House incumbents and challengers who will decide control of Congress.
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