Analysts warn that sanctuary-style policies may influence population counts and congressional apportionment as states prepare for the next redistricting cycle.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A coordinated effort by Democrat governors, lawmakers, and local officials to limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement could play a decisive role in congressional apportionment after the 2030 Census, according to an analysis by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Across the country, Democratic-led states and cities are expanding sanctuary-style policies that restrict the ability of Immigration and Customs Enforcement to arrest and remove individuals living in the United States illegally. Immigration analysts say those policies could result in larger unauthorized populations remaining in blue states through the next decennial census — populations that would still be counted for representation purposes.
Art Arthur, a resident fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, said sanctuary policies both hinder removals and force enforcement operations into communities rather than custodial settings.
“By hindering immigration enforcement with their sanctuary policies, they’re doing two things,” Arthur said in an interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation. “They’re forcing ICE officers into the community to make arrests of dangerous criminal aliens, and they’re also preventing ICE from making arrests of other individuals who are in the U.S. illegally.”
Arthur added that those barriers could directly affect the census count. “The harder those sanctuary states make it for ICE to do its job, the fewer people ICE is going to be able to remove, and the more people who will be present in 2030 to be counted for the decennial census,” he said.
Population projections suggest Democratic strongholds face steep losses when congressional seats are reapportioned. California is projected to lose four seats and New York two seats, according to a Redistricting Network analysis. Rhode Island, Minnesota, Illinois, and Oregon are each expected to lose one seat.
By contrast, Republican-leaning states such as Texas and Florida are projected to gain four seats each, while North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee are also expected to see gains.
Domestic migration has accelerated those trends. According to the American Redistricting Project, the largest population declines from internal migration occurred in California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, while Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee saw the largest increases.
However, every state experienced population growth through international migration, a factor experts say could be leveraged by states that limit immigration enforcement.
“Will it make an impact? Potentially,” Arthur said, noting that a nationwide E-Verify mandate could offset the effect by reducing the incentive for unauthorized migrants to remain in sanctuary states.
Recent enforcement incidents have intensified the political battle. In January, two fatal encounters involving federal immigration agents — including the death of Renee Good in Minneapolis and the killing of Alex Pretti during a Border Patrol confrontation — sparked national backlash and protests. Democrats subsequently demanded sweeping reforms, contributing to a partial federal government shutdown tied to proposed changes to ICE operations.
State and local leaders have moved further. In Virginia, Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger rolled back an executive order directing state law enforcement to assist ICE. Virginia Democrats also introduced legislation restricting immigration arrests near courthouses and polling places.
In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills allowed a sanctuary bill to become law and rescinded an ICE-cooperation order. Buffalo Mayor Sean Ryan issued a sanctuary executive order in January, citing concerns that ICE operations undermine public safety.
Maryland Democrats advanced emergency legislation to block cooperation with ICE after plans for a new detention facility were announced. Lawmakers in New York, California, and other states are also pushing bills allowing residents to sue ICE agents, potentially subjecting the Department of Homeland Security to extensive litigation.
These actions contrast sharply with the Trump administration’s enforcement record. During President Donald Trump’s first year back in office, more than 622,000 illegal migrants were deported, and another 1.9 million self-deported, contributing to negative net migration for the first time in decades.
Redistricting, mandated every decade by the U.S. Constitution, has already become a flashpoint. Both parties are aggressively contesting maps in court and legislatures, with Republicans and Democrats battling over district lines in states such as Texas and California.
Some Democrats have openly acknowledged immigration’s role in redistricting. In 2021, Rep. Yvette Clarke of New York said increased migration could help her district during reapportionment.
Not all analysts agree that excluding unauthorized migrants would benefit Republicans. Pew Research Center demographer Jeffrey Passel told the Daily Caller News Foundation that removing unauthorized immigrants from apportionment could actually cost Republicans a seat, given Texas’s large unauthorized population.
Trump attempted to exclude illegal immigrants from the census during his first term, but the move was blocked by courts. In August 2025, he announced a new census excluding unauthorized populations, though no major changes have been implemented.
Republicans argue the current system distorts representation. Florida Sen. Ashley Moody said in an October 2025 statement that counting illegal immigrants incentivizes open-border policies. Moody introduced the Equal Representation Act, which would base congressional apportionment solely on citizens.
As the 2030 Census approaches, the fight over immigration enforcement, population counts, and political power is intensifying — with sanctuary policies emerging as a central fault line in the next redistricting battle.
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