By Blessing Nweke
China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, shrinking by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, according to official data released Monday, underscoring the speed and scale of the country’s demographic challenges.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the number of births dropped sharply to 7.92 million in 2025, the lowest level in decades, down from 9.54 million a year earlier. At the same time, deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, widening the natural population decline and accelerating the trend seen in recent years.
China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is aging rapidly, developments that are complicating Beijing’s efforts to revive domestic consumption and manage mounting fiscal pressures. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to exit the workforce over the coming decades, even as pension systems and healthcare budgets face increasing strain.
The latest data also highlighted a steep fall in marriages, a key indicator for future birth rates. In 2024, marriages plunged by nearly 20%, the largest drop on record, with just over 6.1 million couples registering nationwide, down from 7.68 million in 2023. Fewer marriages typically translate into fewer births in subsequent years, reinforcing concerns about sustained population decline.
In response, authorities have rolled out a series of measures aimed at easing demographic pressures, including financial incentives for families, expanded childcare support and policy tweaks to reduce barriers to marriage. Demographers say these steps could bring limited relief.
Looking ahead, experts suggest China may see a slight, temporary uptick in births in the coming year after a policy change introduced in May 2025 allowed couples to register marriages anywhere in the country rather than only in their place of residence. While the move simplifies the process, analysts caution it is unlikely to reverse longer-term demographic headwinds without broader structural reforms.
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