A classified CIA assessment warned opposition figures lacked control over Venezuela’s security apparatus, influencing President Trump’s choice to back regime insiders for short-term stability.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A classified U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that senior loyalists within Nicolás Maduro’s government would be best positioned to preserve short-term stability in Venezuela following his removal, a finding that influenced President Donald Trump’s post-arrest strategy, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
The assessment, prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency and briefed to Trump and a limited group of senior officials, determined that maintaining continuity among Venezuela’s military and political elites was critical to preventing immediate chaos after Maduro’s capture. Based on that analysis, Trump opted to support Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, as an interim authority rather than backing opposition leader María Corina Machado, the Journal reported.
Speaking at a Saturday press conference after U.S. forces captured Maduro and transferred him to New York to face federal narco-terrorism charges, Trump questioned Machado’s ability to govern. “I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader if she doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within the country,” Trump said. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”
According to officials familiar with the intelligence review cited by the Journal, Trump concluded that Venezuela’s immediate stability would depend on whether a successor could retain the loyalty of the armed forces and entrenched regime networks. The CIA analysis reportedly identified Rodríguez and two other senior regime figures as the most viable options to prevent a rapid collapse of state authority.
The assessment was commissioned amid internal administration debates over “day-after” scenarios if Maduro were removed. While the report did not recommend regime change or predict how Maduro might lose power, it focused on who could realistically govern in the immediate aftermath, the Journal reported.
Former U.S. and Venezuelan officials told the outlet that Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino remain the most powerful figures within the regime. Both men, however, face U.S. criminal charges similar to those filed against Maduro and are widely viewed in Washington as hostile actors.
By contrast, the intelligence review reportedly found that Machado and Edmundo González—widely regarded as the legitimate winner of Venezuela’s 2024 election—would face overwhelming resistance from pro-regime security forces, drug-trafficking networks, and political rivals. The intelligence conclusions were also reported by The New York Times.
Despite Trump’s apparent rejection of her as an interim leader, Machado publicly praised the president during a Monday interview with Fox News, offering to share the Nobel Peace Prize she received in October. “Because this is the prize of the Venezuelan people, certainly we want to give it to him and share it with him,” she said.
Machado said she plans to return to Venezuela “as soon as possible” and sharply criticized Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president early Monday. “Delcy Rodriguez, as you know, is one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, narco trafficking,” Machado said in a separate interview. “She’s the main ally and liaison with Russia, China, Iran, certainly not an individual that could be trusted by international investors. And she’s really rejected, repudiated by the Venezuelan people,” she added in remarks reported.
Trump has argued that holding elections in the near term would be unrealistic given the country’s condition. “We have to fix the country first. You can’t have an election. There’s no way the people could even vote,” Trump told NBC News in an interview published Monday. “No, it’s going to take a period of time. We have to nurse the country back to health.”
Polling following Maduro’s arrest shows strong domestic support for the U.S. operation, though concerns remain about prolonged American involvement. Some conservatives expressed relief that the United States did not dismantle the entire Venezuelan government in favor of the opposition.
Maduro appeared in federal court in New York City on Monday and pleaded not guilty to charges including narco-terrorism. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed a bipartisan group of lawmakers the same day. Rubio has suggested the United States could pressure Rodríguez by intercepting sanctioned oil shipments, while Trump publicly declared that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela and needs “total access” to its oil reserves.
“As everyone knows the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time,” Trump said Saturday. “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president’s approach reflects strategic realism. “The President and his national security team are making realistic decisions to finally ensure Venezuela aligns with the interests of the United States, and becomes a better country for the Venezuelan people,” she said in a statement.
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