BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA
Cuban flags were lowered before dawn on Monday as the government declared a period of mourning for 32 security officers it says were killed during a U.S. military strike in neighboring Venezuela, the island’s closest political and economic ally. The somber ceremony unfolded as many Cubans awoke to growing anxiety over what the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could mean for their own country’s already fragile future.
Havana has released few details about the deaths, saying only that the officers were killed during the surprise weekend operation that led to Maduro’s removal. The announcement nonetheless underscored the depth of Cuba’s involvement in Venezuela, where Cuban soldiers and security agents have long played key roles, including serving as part of Maduro’s personal security apparatus. For years, Venezuela’s oil shipments have been a lifeline for Cuba, helping the cash-strapped nation endure chronic fuel shortages, power outages and food scarcity.
The Trump administration has made clear that the fall of Maduro is intended to advance a broader strategic objective: weakening the Cuban government by cutting off its most critical ally. U.S. officials have openly argued that severing the Havana-Caracas relationship could deal a decisive blow to Cuba’s leadership. Cuban authorities reacted sharply over the weekend, urging the international community to confront what they described as “state terrorism” and warning of destabilizing consequences for the region.
President Donald Trump, speaking Saturday, was blunt about the implications for Cuba, whose economy has been battered by years of sanctions, declining tourism and structural inefficiencies. “It’s going down,” Trump said of the island nation. “It’s going down for the count.”
For ordinary Cubans, the political rhetoric translated quickly into fear and grief. Many residents said the loss of the officers, combined with uncertainty over Venezuela’s future, has revived memories of the severe hardships that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Cuba plunged into a prolonged economic crisis marked by blackouts and hunger.
“I can’t talk. I have no words,” said 75-year-old Berta Luz Sierra Molina, covering her face as she fought back tears after hearing the news.
Others expressed defiance rather than despair. Regina Mendez, 63, said that even though she is beyond military age, she feels compelled to stand firm. “Give me a rifle, and I’ll go fight,” she said, reflecting a sense of nationalist resolve promoted by the government and shared by some citizens.
The economic stakes are stark. Over the past three months, Venezuela has shipped an average of about 35,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, roughly a quarter of the island’s total demand, according to Jorge Piñón, a Cuban energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute. That supply has helped keep power plants running and transportation systems functioning, albeit unevenly.
“The critical question, and one we don’t have an answer to, is whether the United States will allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil,” Piñón said.
He pointed to Mexico as a cautionary example. Mexico once supplied Cuba with about 22,000 barrels of oil per day, a figure that dropped to roughly 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City last August. Piñón said it is unlikely Mexico would step in again under the current geopolitical climate. “I don’t see Mexico jumping in right now,” he said. “The U.S. government would go bonkers.”
Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at American University in Washington, warned that the loss of Venezuelan oil could have immediate and devastating consequences. “Blackouts have been significant even with Venezuela still sending some oil,” he said. “Imagine losing that in the short term. It’s a catastrophe.”
Cuba lacks the financial resources to purchase oil on the open market at scale, Piñón said, leaving it with few alternatives. Russia remains one of the last potential suppliers, currently sending Cuba about 2 million barrels of oil a year. While Moscow has the capacity to increase shipments, Piñón questioned whether it has the political will to do so at a time when its own strategic priorities lie elsewhere.
Torres echoed that skepticism, suggesting that deeper involvement in Cuba could complicate Russia’s broader diplomatic calculations. “Meddling with Cuba could jeopardize negotiations with the United States over Ukraine,” he said. “Why would you do it? Ukraine is far more important.”
Facing dwindling options, some economists argue that Cuba may be forced to pursue long-delayed economic reforms. Torres said opening the economy further to private enterprise and shrinking the state sector could make the island more attractive to foreign partners, including China. Still, he acknowledged that such changes would require difficult political decisions.
“Do they have an alternative?” Torres asked. “I don’t think they do.”
As mourning ceremonies continued across the island, uncertainty loomed large. For many Cubans, the capture of Maduro has transformed distant geopolitical maneuvering into a personal and immediate concern, raising fears that an already harsh daily struggle could soon become far worse.
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