Job vacancies remained flat in October, while voluntary quits sank to their lowest level since 2020, signaling a cautious and cooling labor market.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The number of U.S. job openings held steady in October, suggesting a cooling but resilient labor market as workers showed increasing hesitation to change jobs. According to delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Dec. 9, total job vacancies rose only slightly to 7.67 million, following a strong 431,000 surge in September.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), postponed due to the government shutdown, showed modest gains in retail trade (+142,000) but declines across professional and business services (-114,000), the federal government (-25,000), and leisure and hospitality (-22,000).
The number of workers quitting their jobs, a measure of confidence in the labor market, fell by 187,000 to 2.94 million—the lowest reading since August 2020. That figure is well below the 3.21 million quits reported a year earlier. The decline was concentrated in accommodation and food services, healthcare and social assistance, and federal employment. The quits rate slipped from 2 percent in September to 1.8 percent.
Hiring and layoffs remained little changed at 5.1 million and 1.9 million, respectively, reinforcing what analysts call a “low fire, low hire” labor environment.
“The job market has cooled but hasn’t cracked,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economist at Bankrate. “October job openings rose to nearly 7.7 million, higher than expected, but well below the post-pandemic peak. Hiring remains subdued, and quits are falling. That mix suggests employers are cautious and workers are even more so.”
Economists are watching for next week’s November jobs report, which will provide the final major snapshot of the labor market this year. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, forecast in a note that the economy added about 40,000 jobs last month—slightly above the Dallas Fed’s estimated 30,000 breakeven rate needed to maintain the unemployment level.
Recent private-sector data also point to possible stabilization. According to ADP, small businesses added an average of 4,750 jobs per week during the four weeks ending Nov. 22, suggesting hiring may be recovering after several weak months. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said the uptick “hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates.”
In late November, unemployment claims dropped to 191,000, the lowest level in more than three years, while continuing claims also fell for a second consecutive week.
Meanwhile, Indeed Hiring Lab data show job postings have risen since early November, reaching a three-month high driven by seasonal hiring. Still, Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, warned in a report that current demand “pales in comparison” to the stronger holiday seasons of 2020–2022.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in October that the labor market “may be just continuing to gradually cool,” describing conditions as neither booming nor collapsing. The unemployment rate remains slightly above 4 percent, with the labor force participation rate at 62.4 percent.
Inflation-adjusted earnings show mild progress: real hourly wages rose 0.8 percent year over year in September, while real weekly earnings gained 0.7 percent.
Still, some economists believe weakness will persist into 2026. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said, “Labor demand is weak enough for the Fed to cut, including this month,” projecting the unemployment rate could rise to 4.6 percent by year-end.
The job openings-to-unemployment ratio stands at 1.0, indicating a near-balance between available positions and job seekers.
Policymakers are expected to finalize a third straight quarter-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s year-end meeting, a move intended to support hiring as the U.S. economy navigates the final stretch of 2025.
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