Global Airline Industry Poised to Fall Short of Green Fuel Targets

BY COMFORT OGBONNA

The global airline industry is increasingly unlikely to meet its upcoming goals for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) usage, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). On Tuesday, the association expressed concern over what it described as slow and “disappointing” progress, placing much of the blame on fuel producers and regulatory bodies that have failed to support the scale-up of greener alternatives.

Sustainable aviation fuel—produced mainly from waste materials, including used cooking oil—has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions compared with conventional jet fuel. Despite its environmental advantages, SAF remains two to five times more expensive, limiting widespread adoption across an industry still recovering from economic pressures.

IATA forecasts that only 2.4 million metric tons of SAF will be available globally in 2026. That figure would account for just 0.8% of the total jet fuel the industry is expected to consume. This falls far short of the ambitious long-term climate strategy adopted in 2021, in which the broader aviation sector committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal heavily dependent on steadily increasing the use of SAF.

“We’re not seeing SAF produced in the volumes we had hoped for and had expected. That is disappointing,” IATA’s director general Willie Walsh said during a media briefing. Walsh has repeatedly cautioned that lagging production puts the 2050 net-zero pledge at serious risk.

Currently, SAF represents about 0.3% of global jet fuel use, and IATA data shows that figure is projected to climb to only 0.7% by 2025—still nowhere near the pace needed to sustain the industry’s decarbonization targets. Experts warn that unless production accelerates dramatically, the aviation sector will struggle to deliver on its climate commitments.

Airlines maintain that they are ready to purchase all available volumes of SAF, but argue that fuel producers are driving up costs and failing to manufacture enough of the cleaner fuel to meet growing demand. According to Walsh, the challenge is not unwillingness from airlines but a lack of supply.

“It’s not an issue of price, it’s an issue of availability, and they’re just not able to get their hands on the SAF they require to fulfil the ambition that they expressed,” he explained.

Walsh also noted that he expects many airlines to revise or even roll back their official sustainability commitments as soon as 2026. He pointed to Air New Zealand as one of the first carriers to begin setting more realistic expectations, signaling a broader industry shift that may emerge if SAF shortages persist.