Trump Is Fighting to Save Congress. Could the Midterms End His Agenda?

The U.S. midterm elections are in the final countdown. Trump has held over 20 rallies in 28 consecutive days. Even with his voice gone hoarse from shouting, he keeps emphasizing that we must win. We absolutely must win. This time he is campaigning at the scale of a presidential election, and he's working incredibly hard. As for the Democrats, they are also giving it their all. Obama has jumped into the fray, doing two events a day, campaigning all the way from Cleveland and Detroit to Atlanta. But as of now, the outcome of this election remains murky. House Speaker Mike Johnson says we will win big, that we will win both chambers. However, the betting markets are now at 9 to 1 odds in favor of a Democratic victory. Some say there's no hope left for the Republicans to win the House, and even holding onto the Senate is in question. If that's the case, then for the next two years, Trump would essentially become a lame duck president, and might even face impeachment again. So even though this is just a midterm election, its significance is no less than that of a general election. And that is why we absolutely must discuss this topic today. Regardless of whether you've been following this before, please watch until the end. Finally, I will share how to watch The Vote Coyote on Tuesday, and provide predictions as the results come in. I've mentioned this to friends before, I'll be livestreaming on Tuesday to watch The Vote Count with you all, so subscribe to TrueView and stay tuned for every episode. Let's start with the House of Representatives. Regarding the House, recent narratives are also two extremes. On one side, betting markets where real money is at stake, like Polymarket and Cauchy, put the probability of the Democrats taking the House at over 90%. The Financial Times reported that Republican strategists have even privately expressed, I think the House is going to flip. On the other hand, House Speaker Mike Johnson stated as early as September that we would expand our majority. He is very optimistic about election night. Additionally, a former Trump campaign advisor listed six reasons in conservative media claiming that the Republicans could win both chambers. On one side, there are bets with real money. On the other, the confidence of the Speaker of the House. Who is actually right? The House of Representatives has a total number of seats, and all of them are up for election every two years. In the election two years ago, the Republicans won 220 seats and the Democrats won 215 seats. Right now, there are a few seats vacant, so the current count is 218 to 214. Logically speaking, the Democrats only need to win three more seats than they did in the last election to reach 218 and flip the House. But those three seats aren't as easy to win as they might look. Why? We'll talk about that in a moment. First, let's talk about a more pressing issue. If the House is lost, what does that actually mean for Trump? To put it in plain terms, the House holds two things, the purse strings and the prosecutor's subpoena power. The purse strings mean that all spending bills must first pass through the House. For example, didn't Trump promise that if the Republicans win both houses, they could give every adult American $5,000, which would be $10,000 for a married couple? This money adds up to about $1.2 trillion. But as long as the House doesn't give the green light, not a single cent can be distributed. The same goes for the annual government appropriations. If they can't reach an agreement, the government has to shut down. When are the prosecutors? The point is that since the chairs of all the House committees belong to the majority party, those chairs can hold hearings, issue subpoenas, and summon officials for questioning. If the House has a majority, they can also initiate impeachment, which is equivalent to indicting the president. So what does this mean for Trump? If the Republican party holds onto the House, then Trump's bills on budget, tax cuts, and immigration can continue to move forward. And with committees in their own hands, he won't be receiving subpoena after subpoena. But if the Democratic Party takes the House, it will be a completely different story. Now, Democratic House leader Jeffries has already prepared a 100-day plan, which includes restoring subsidies for Obamacare, reversing cuts to Medicaid, voting against a war with Iran, and overturning Trump's tariffs. At that point, the Judiciary Committee and the Oversight Committee, chaired by Democrats, could potentially launch investigations into Trump himself, his family, and his administration. As for impeachment, Jeffries' stance is that it's neither on the table nor off the table. The implication is that it's being kept in reserve for when it might be needed. Some also say that if the House is lost, every penny Trump spends over the next two years will have to be negotiated with the Democrats, and every decision he makes could be hounded by subpoenas. So is it actually possible for the House to be lost? Now, those who say the House will be lost have one main reason. The current wave of Democratic support is just too strong. First of all, midterm elections are essentially a report card from voters for the incumbent president. If voters are dissatisfied with the status quo, they are very likely to swing toward the opposition party. Historically speaking, this has also proven to be the case. Since 1938, in the 21st midterm elections that have taken place, the president's party has lost seats in the House 19 times, so they only managed to hold onto them twice. As for the current generic ballot polls, which don't ask which candidate you'll vote for, but rather which party you'll vote for, the Democrats are currently leading by 8-9 points. The last time the Democrats led by this much was in 2018, during the midterm elections of Trump's first term, and the result of that midterm election was a net gain of about 40 seats for the Democrats. So what are the reasons for the American public's dissatisfaction right now? It's mainly about their wallets. At the end of February this year, the US and Israel went to war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and gas prices jumped from under $3 a gallon to $4 or even $5. An AP poll in October showed that 84% of voters said the cost of living Living was one of the most important issues for them when voting. On top of that, Trump's current approval rating during this term has already dropped to just over 30% multiple times, which is one of the lowest points in his political career. Even some Republican candidates are now starting to distance themselves from Trump. However, looking at these macro-level factors alone is still a bit abstract. Let's talk about a specific district, and you'll be able to feel this democratic wave. Texas's 15th district stretches north from the Rio Grande Valley on the US-Mexico border into the oil and ranching country. 82% of its residents are Latino. In 2024, Trump won here by 18 percentage points. Last summer, Trump wanted the entire state of Texas to redraw its districts to help the Republican Party gain five more seats. We'll talk more about this later, so for those of you who have questions about this, let's hold off for now and discuss it in a bit. So the Texas legislature extended this district further north, pulling it into several more conservative counties east of San Antonio, with the goal of making it redder and more secure, while also securing a few more seats for the Republican Party. The person responsible for holding this district is Trump's ally, Republican Congresswoman Dela Cruz, challenging her as a singer named Polito, who has been singing Mexican-style music for 31 years. When this guy campaigns, he usually just goes to local quinceañeras to sing. Then, on October 17th, he held a farewell concert, announcing the end of his 31-year music career. About 9,000 people showed up at that time. As it turned out, a mid-October poll from Texas Southern University showed that this paleto had already gained 51% support, while de la Cruz had 44%. Among Latino voters, it was 57% to 40%. An even wider gap. You see, logically speaking, a district where Trump won by 18 points back then, and which was redrawn according to Trump's plan, should be rock solid. But now, it has actually turned into a race that is neck and neck in the polls, with the Democrats even having a slight edge. A Republican analyst said that Latino voters haven't shifted to the Democratic party. Rather, given the current situation, they don't want either side. But having said that, some friends might have doubts saying that polls aren't entirely reliable. That's true, because most polling organizations are controlled by the Democrats, and polls have historically underestimated the Republican Party. In 2016, 2020, and 2024, Trump's actual vote share was much higher than the polls suggested. Some conservatives have cited statistics from CNN and reporters, noting that polls in key states in September of 2018 and 2024 underestimated the Republican Party by 5 to 9 percentage points. In the 2020 Kansas Senate election, polls said Republican Marshall was leading by 4 points, but in the end, he led by more than 11 points. So, traditionally speaking, these polls have underestimated the Republican Party. Therefore, just because polls say the Democratic Party will win doesn't mean that's the reality. That's why conservatives believe that this time, as long as the polls underestimate them by three points, the Republican Party will be able to take both houses. This brings us to the point that many people believe the Republican Party will not only avoid losing the House this time, but will actually expand their majority. And their reasoning is very solid. It's concrete. Why do many people think the Republican Party won't lose the House this time? The first reason is that this time the Republican Party has specifically built a moat for itself. How so? Under normal circumstances, the United States only redraws electoral districts once every ten years based on the census. But this time, Trump pushed for Texas to redraw its electoral districts in the middle of the ten-year cycle, aiming to pick up five more seats. On the Democratic side, they also took countermeasures. California used a ballot initiative to redraw about five seats that leaned Democratic. Then Florida also redrew its districts, aiming to gain another four seats. Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio are all following suit. Once everything cancels out, various estimates suggest that the Republican Party can still net a few seats. Some say as few as two or three, while others say as many as eight or nine. The calculation from conservative media is that with this moat in place, the Democratic Party would need to lead by at least nearly five percentage points in the national popular vote to secure a majority. In other words, even if they only net three seats, it won't be that easy for the Democrats to win them. Another reason is the silver wave. Conservative pollster Tony Fabrizio said that the group most eager to vote this time is actually voters over 65, and this demographic leans Republican. However, what's being reflected in the polls is data from young people, who are the most supportive of the Democratic Party. As of now, this group hasn't really come out to vote yet. So all in all, what the betting odds and polls are showing is that the Democrats are creating a major wave. But in the eyes of the Republicans, the moats they've built, the money they've poured in, and those voters who aren't visible in the polls are the very forces that will allow them to hold the House and perhaps even expand their majority. As for the people putting real money on the line in the betting markets, over the last couple of days, they've been betting on on the Democrats at a 9-to-1 ratio. But don't forget, back in 2016, when it came to the two candidates, Trump and Hillary, it was actually Hillary who had more real money bet on her. Yet the final winner was Trump. So friends, are you more optimistic about this democratic wave? Or do you believe in the republican moat? If you're currently leaning towards the idea that the democrats have a big wave coming, type wave in the comment section for me. If you're leaning towards the idea that the republicans can hold this moat and keep the house, type wall for me. What will actually happen with the house? On Tuesday night, we'll actually be able to see the signs pretty early on. How do you look for them? We'll save that for later. What will truly determine the final two years of Trump's administration is the Senate. The real deciding factor is actually in the Senate. If the house is a wave, then the Senate is a hand-to-hand fight. The Senate has 100 seats, with six-year terms, and one-third of them are up for election every two years. This year, 35 seats are up for election, two of which are special elections. That's because the Florida seat is open since Rubio became Secretary of State, and the Ohio seat is open because Vance became Vice President. Currently, the Republicans have 53 seats, while the Democrats have 47. When it's 50-50, Vice President Vance can cast the tie-breaking vote. So for the Democrats to flip the Senate, they need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. What's the Senate control? We mentioned earlier that the House acts as the prosecutor, while the Senate acts as the judge, and it also holds the power of confirmation for appointments. The power of confirmation covers cabinet secretaries, federal judges, and Supreme Court justices. Those highlight clips from hearings that we share from time to time actually all come from the Senate. All of these appointments require the Senate's approval before they can take office. Now, Democratic Senate leader Schumer has already stated that if the Democrats take Take control of the Senate, there will be very few confirmations of Trump's nominees. There is a major foreshadowing here because Supreme Court Justice Alito has already said in an interview that he considered retiring this year and will consider it again next year. If the Senate remains in Democratic hands, then Trump will likely have no further opportunity to appoint a fourth Supreme Court Justice. And as we just mentioned, if the House of Representatives is the prosecutor, the Senate is the judge. In this regard, assuming the House impeaches, it can only serve the role of bringing charges. The trial takes place in the Senate and it requires a two-thirds majority or 67 votes to convict. So regardless of who wins this time, 67 votes is almost impossible. Which is to say, it's almost impossible for Trump to face impeachment again. As for the Senate, based on the current landscape over the last couple of days, the average across the two major prediction markets puts the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate at about 70%. 70% sounds like a lot, but it's much less solid than 90% predicted for the House. How so? Because many of the states the Democrats are trying to flip are ones where Trump won by a landslide in 2024, including Texas, where he won by nearly 14 points, Kansas, where he won by 16 points, and Iowa, where he won by 13 points. For the Democrats to take the Senate, they must do two things simultaneously. First, hold on to several vulnerable states they currently hold, including Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Furthermore, they need to forcefully snatch four seats from the Republicans. So how capable are the Democrats of achieving this? Let's look at them one by one. First, let's talk about the Texas seat, which is currently held by Republican veteran Cornyn, who has already served four terms. The person who jumped out to challenge him in the primary this year is the Texas Attorney General, Paxton. This guy has some issues regarding his personal conduct, including being impeached by the State House of Representatives in 2023 on charges involving bribery and abuse of power. Later, the State Senate acquitted him, Last year, his wife also announced she was divorcing him, citing biblical groans. So the Republican Senate leadership is very worried that if someone like Paxton becomes the candidate, they might lose this stronghold. Therefore, they and the donors poured about $100 million into Cornyn's campaign. Actually, within the Republican Party, everyone is more inclined toward Cornyn. As it turned out, one week before the May runoff, Trump stepped in and endorsed Paxton. Trump's reasoning was actually very straightforward. He said, Cornyn is a good guy, but, well, when I was in a tough spot, he didn't support me. Paxton is a fighter. He knows how to win. A week later, this Paxton guy unseated Cornyn, who had served four terms. As for the Democratic side, they put forward 37-year-old Tallarico, who is a state representative, a former middle school teacher, and a student at a Presbyterian seminary. He could quote the Bible at the drop of a hat. So this time, he specifically went to deep red rural areas to hold rallies, trying to win over those rural voters who originally supported the Republicans. As of now, most polls show Tallarico with a slight lead, and Musk has poured about $160 million into Paxton's campaign, hoping he will win. As for the prediction markets, about 70% favor Telerico. You have to realize that Texas hasn't elected a Democratic state-level official in over 30 years, so in this Texas battleground, whether Paxton, who Trump is betting on, can actually win, well, that remains to be seen. And the second one is Kansas. As we mentioned in our short video, when Trump was asked by a Reuters reporter why he wasn't going to Kansas, he tore into the reporter, feeling he didn't need to go because he was polling well there. But then, less than 24 hours later, Trump changed his tune and decided to go in person. Why? It's just because he couldn't let it go. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932. That's 94 years! The incumbent is Republican Senator Marshall, a former OBGYN. Challenging him is a pastor from a large Methodist church named Hamilton. What's interesting is that this pastor was originally registered as a Republican, only switched to Independent this February, and ultimately ran as a Democrat. As for Marshall, there was an incident where he got flustered by questions at a town hall in a small town in the West and walked out on the spot. And the Democrats have been hammering him on that ever since. A CNN poll at the end of October had Hamilton at 49% and Marshall at 45%. In the prediction markets, these two are basically neck and neck. However, polls in Kansas have a history of underestimating the Republican potential. The final poll in 2020 showed Marshall leading by 4 points at the time, but he ended up winning by 11.4 points. As for Kansas, I personally tend to think that the Republicans still have a pretty good chance of winning. Do you guys agree with me? If you agree, give me a like. The Senate seats that the Democrats are still trying to flip from the Republicans also include the one in North Carolina. Because the Republican senator there, Tillis, had a falling out with Trump over issues like immigration and the Federal Reserve, so he chose to retire. So the Democrats have put forward the former Governor Cooper, who is very popular locally. Various ratings are now very optimistic about the Democrat Cooper. So in this regard, the Republicans don't have as much of a winning chance, and you could say the Democrats have almost got it in the bag. Then there's Ohio, where Democratic veteran Brown, who just lost a seat in 2024, is making a comeback. His opponent is Houston, who took over Vance's seat. Right now, the market is about 70% optimistic about Brown. And there's Maine's Republican Collins, who is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that voted for the Democrats in 2024. The Democratic Party's original candidate dropped out due to sexual assault allegations and personal issues, so the party replaced them with former state senate president Jackson. Right now, the market is about 70% optimistic about the Democrats. However, this Collins is a very tough fighter. Back in 2020, polls almost all predicted that Collins would lose, but in the end, he won. So this is also a very critical state. We'll have to see if Collins can hold onto it. Then there's Alaska and Iowa. Iowa is the state the Republicans are most confident about holding on to in this batch, with the market being over 50% optimistic about the Republicans. So these are all seats the Democrats are trying to flip. Besides flipping seats, they also have one to defend, and it's the most contentious one this year. It's the most controversial race. If the Democrat is elected, it will create the first Muslim senator in U.S. history. At a rally, Trump called this Democratic candidate a jihadist. So this person is El Sayed, the Democratic candidate for senator in Michigan. He's 41 years old and was born in Michigan. His parents were Egyptian immigrants. His parents divorced when he was three, so he grew up with his father and stepmother. His stepmother was from rural Michigan, and his father was an automotive engineer who left Egypt when he was young because the Egyptian government was cracking down on radical students, and he came to Detroit to pursue his PhD. As for Syed himself, he's a Rhodes Scholar and holds a doctorate from Oxford. At 30, he became the health commissioner of Detroit, making him the youngest health commissioner in any major American city. In 2018, he ran for governor once but lost the primary to the current governor, Whitmer. His political stance is very progressive, including support for universal health care, taxing billionaires, and eliminating the filibuster in the Senate. He is currently endorsed by Sanders. In August of this year, his opponent in the Democratic primary was was Representative Stephens. Pro-Israel lobbying groups spent nearly $65 million at the time to target him. Saeed was originally leading by double digits in the polls, but in the end, he only won by a very slim margin, about one percentage point. This person is quite controversial, and the biggest controversy lies in his relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood. His biological mother once worked as a nurse at a charity called the Islamic American Relief Agency. This organization was shut down by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice in 2004 on charges of violating sanctions by funding terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda. The FBI also searched his office in Missouri and among the evidence in the trial were 13 financial letters handled by his mother. However, his mother herself was not charged with any crimes. Saeed's campaign team says he is estranged from his biological mother, but there have been reports that she attended his medical school graduation in 2014. Speaking of the Muslim Brotherhood, Saeed's half-sister wrote something online years ago, saying, "...our family has always been the Muslim Brotherhood." She also said that their mother had joined the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in the early 1970s. In 2012, Syed and 45 other Egyptian Americans also co-signed an open letter supporting Egyptian President Morsi, who came from the Muslim Brotherhood. And when Syed was studying at the University of Michigan, he even served as an officer for the Muslim Students Association. Some scholars have pointed out that when this organization was founded, it had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, so these sensitive connections were seized upon and heavily attacked by the Republican Party. As for Syed himself, he denies being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and says the claims about his mother are just hearsay. Beyond this, Syed is also accused of being anti-Semitic and supporting Palestine. The Democratic candidate, Stevens, who lost to him in the primary, had originally endorsed him and was even going to campaign for him. However, this changed because a pro-Syed political group ran an ad that blamed the rise in grocery prices on Israel, and Syed did not condemn it. Now, Stephen's fiancée, who is Jewish, has publicly stated that he will vote for the Republican, Rogers. This brings us to Saeed's opponent, Rogers. This guy's no lightweight either. He has an army background, served as an FBI agent for five years, and was a seven-term U.S. representative, including four years as the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. He is extremely experienced and is known as a China hawk. In 2024, he lost to the Democrat Slotkin by only about 19,000 votes, and this is his second Who is more likely to win? Looking at the voter demographics, the key to victory lies in two places. One is Detroit. 75% of Detroit is Black, and this is a solid stronghold for the Democratic Party. However, during the primary, over 60% of voters here cast their ballots for Stevens, not leaning towards Syed. In current polls, the vast majority of Black voters still do not lean towards Syed. For Rodgers, as long as he can double his vote count in Detroit from 2024, he can pretty much make up for those 19,000 votes. So these black voters in Detroit are a must-win battleground for both sides. And the other key point is Dearborn, which is the largest Arab-American community in the entire country. In 2024, this place voted for Trump, but during the primary, Syed won nearly 80% of the vote here. However, the problem is that early voter turnout in Dearborn is only 24%, while the statewide turnout is 44%, which means many people haven't voted yet. There is also a segment of Jewish Democrats here who are very likely to switch their vote to the Republican, Rogers, because they oppose Syed's stance on Israel. So Michigan is definitely a huge one to watch. Trump and Obama both visited here within 24 hours just for this seat. If the Democrats lose it, they would need a net gain of five seats, and at that point the Democrats would basically have no chance in the Senate. All right, so we've looked at both the House and the Senate now. Let's summarize this battle. On the House side, many people are predicting that the Republicans will lose, mainly because this Democratic wave looks like it has a lot of momentum. Many voters are dissatisfied with prices, gas prices, and the cost of living, and they are taking that frustration out on the ruling Republican party, shifting toward the Democrats, which is why the Democratic momentum looks so strong. But on the other hand, it's not that easy for the Democrats to actually turn things around. According to the old map, a net gain of three seats would be enough. But now that the Republicans have redrawn the districts and dug this moat, the Democrats actually need to win several more seats. They would need to lead by nearly five percentage points in the national popular vote to succeed. This wave looks quite large, but whether it can actually wash away this moat remains to be seen. As for the Senate, let's run a simulation. For the Democrats to have a net gain of four seats, well, in North Carolina, with the very popular former Governor Cooper running, it's basically safe to say the Democrats have already secured that one. So that's plus one for the Democrats. So where will the remaining three seats come from? The Republican Party's first line of defense is Iowa. As long as they hold Iowa, the Democrats will have to snatch three more from the remaining five states. Ohio, Maine, And Alaska and Kansas. Conversely, as long as the Republicans hold three of these five states, the Democrats can only compete for three seats. Then the Senate would become 50-50, and with Vice President Vance holding the tie-breaking vote, the Senate would still remain in Republican hands. So which three are the Republicans most certain they can hold? In my view, they are Kansas, Maine, and Texas. Friends, what do you think? Let me know in the comments. If Rogers can pull off an upset in Michigan, then the Republicans could even afford to lose one more state. So regarding the Senate, I'm still feeling pretty optimistic about the Republicans. So how should we watch the vote counts on Tuesday night? The first point to watch is at 6pm, looking at Kentucky's 6th district. It's the first bellwether of the night, and we can use it to gauge whether the Democratic wave is actually as big as the polls suggest. Why, look here! Because this is one of the first key House districts in the country to close its polls. This district is centered around Lexington, and since the incumbent Republican Congressman Barr is running for Senate, both parties have new candidates. Back in 2024, Trump won this district by 15 points, while he won nationally by about 1.5 points that year. Now, the Democrats are projected to lead nationally by 8 to 9 points, which means the national landscape has shifted toward the Democrats by about 10 points. If you apply this 10-point shift to this district, the Republicans' original 15-point lead would be reduced to about a 5-point lead. So, on Tuesday night, if the Republicans win by about 5 points, it means this wave is pretty much in line with the polling predictions, and the House will most likely flip to the Democrats. If the Democrats win, it means there's been a shift of at least 15 points here, which would mean the Democratic wave is even bigger than the polls predicted, and the Republicans will likely suffer a crushing defeat in the House. If the Republicans win by more than 10 points, it means this wave is smaller than the polls predicted, and the Republicans will have a great chance of winning the House. This is the first observation point. This second point is at 8 o'clock p.m. because the Democrats are competing for four seats. At 7.30, North Carolina and Ohio will close their polls first. These are the first two seats the Democrats are looking to snatch. By 8 p.m., Maine, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, and New Hampshire will all close their polls at the same time. This is the most critical hour. Whether the Democrats can actually snatch Texas and Kansas, and whether they can hold on to Michigan, the direction of the Senate basically hinges on this one hour. However, on Tuesday night, the Senate race might not necessarily have a result, because if neither candidate in Maine gets more than half the votes, they have to recount using rank-choice voting, which could drag things out until next week. And as for the vote counting in Alaska, it's always been on the slower side. If no one gets more than half the votes in Georgia either, there might be another runoff on December 1st. If it really comes down to a 50-50 split, the US might very well have to wait until December to finally know who controls the Senate. Just a reminder to everyone, on Tuesday night I'll be live during the midterm elections, reporting the vote counts with you all, watching the results as they come in, and following the latest updates hour by hour. So I invite you all to subscribe and stay tuned to my show. Let's watch this pivotal yet incredibly tight and unpredictable midterm exam for the Trump administration together. Friends, which outcome are you leaning towards? I'd like to ask you, do you think the Republicans can hold both houses? Or are you leaning towards the Republicans losing the House but holding the Senate? Or perhaps you think the Republicans might lose both houses? Or do you think the Democrats will sweep both? Three possibilities. Share your thoughts with us in the comments section and we'll keep the discussion going. With the US midterm elections just around the corner, as we count down, let's take a look at what kind of Congress President Trump will actually be facing for the next two years. 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We'll see you at We'll see you at the same time on Tuesday for TrueView. Don't miss it. Bye bye.