Spain vs. Argentina: Who wins the World Cup final?

Welcome into the Sports Seriously Soccer Podcast. We are days away from the World Cup Final, the Men's World Cup, between Argentina and Spain. Seth, it's an interesting match-up. Seth Vitale joining me in Washington, D.C. Lori Lindsey traveling around the world. She'll be back next episode, and we'll talk a little bit more about the U.S. Men's National Team. Mauricio Pochettino, stay on. We'll get to that in a future episode, so make sure you subscribe and like. But Seth, as we look ahead to this final, one thing really stands out to me, and that's it's the final that I predicted. Interesting. Very, very crucial fact there to point out. I think I actually had Spain in the final, and then at some point down the line, I kind of chickened out, and I picked France to beat them, because France, you know, that seemed like a pretty safe bet based on how they were playing, but, I mean, that semi-final was incredible. I mean, you know, we can get into it. I mean, there were a lot of surprises in this tournament, you know, different kinds of surprises. I think about Cape Verde, of course, being able to tie Spain, but really, even though Spain's one of the best four or five teams in this tournament, I feel like that semi-final was one of the bigger surprises to me of the entire tournament, just how it unfolded. I think the way that it happened was really notable. We'll get into Spain's strengths, but while we're talking about surprises, I kind of want to close the book a bit on the third-place game, which is happening Saturday in Miami. We will have coverage on USA Today Sports. Which team are you more surprised to see in that game, and not in the final, France or England, because they both seem to be going quite strong. You predicted them both to reach the final, and said that's the third-place game. Which do you think is, like, more of a shock? Yeah, well, first of all, I think we all might be surprised that there still is a third-place game in this tournament. Nobody seems to want to be there, and the fact that it's in Miami is... Especially with the expanded games. The expanded tournament, it's like, well, okay, like, because in theory FIFA would have had it for TV inventory, right? And telling broadcasters, but now there's more than 100 games, like, do you really need this other one? I would say no, but start in Rome. It's especially cruel having it in Miami, too. Well, I don't know, okay, like, as much as I had a great time in Kansas City, some other host sites, Houston, like, at least if you're in Miami, it's like, I guess after the third-place game, you can go out on Miami Beach. You can go out, but, I mean, you also have just played in 100-degree humid weather. But to get to your original question, I think the team I'm most surprised to see there is England. You know, I think Spain, we've seen throughout this tournament, has been super impressive, and, you know, I think... Like you mentioned, I was 0-2 in my semifinal picks, but especially I'm surprised to see England based on how the first 55, 60 minutes of that game played out, and, you know, again, we can get into that a little bit, but, you know, this England team, and we've said this, you know, a bunch of times over the last 10 years, but it felt like this was really the one for them, and when they scored that goal, it seemed like everything was kind of lined up for them, and then it just sort of all fell apart. For me, I think it's more surprising not to see France. You know, France had this attack where you're looking, and you're like, man, you don't even need to take anyone out. You can leave Mbappe up top, Alise behind him, and the two wingers, and even if you put whoever, Barcelona or Doua, you've still got a, you know, Boulambe or winner on one side, a PSG double-time Champions League winner on the other, and yet Spain really smothered them. They suffocated them. They choked them out in a lot of ways. You know, they kind of said, yo, you guys are great attackers, you're not going to be able to do it if we have the ball, and then they just controlled the entire game. A lot of people, I think, have even talked about Luis De La Fuente sticking with the midfield duo, not putting Gabi in there, relying on Pedri and Fabian Ruiz. To me, like, it worked. I don't know that he needs to change it as we look ahead to the final, especially against an Argentina team where, like, that might be the weakness. Let's look at this game and see how each of the teams match up, Seth. Let's start in the midfield, because to me, that's where this battle is going to be won. I don't think anyone, well, maybe I'm not trying to put words in your mouth or anyone's mouth, I just think that when you look at the two units, Argentina's weakness seems to have been there most of the tournament, and it seems to be Spain's strength. But which midfield do you like more? Yeah, definitely Spain. I know, John, you've talked about this a little bit. I have to say, Argentina's midfield has maybe exceeded expectations a little bit, specifically Leandro Paredes. I know he was one of the big question marks in this lineup, but, you know, seeing him operate in the semifinal live, I was really impressed the way he kind of goes back and forth between being an extra man in possession in the back line and moving forward in midfield as well. But, yeah, I mean, Spain, what more can you say about Spain in that they have the luxury of saying, Padre, you're one of the best five or six midfielders in the world, but you're maybe a little bit below par, so we can just sit you, and we're going to bring on a guy in Fabian Ruiz, who starts for PSG, the best club team in the world, and, you know, lo and behold, it works out. He scores in the quarterfinal, he has another good performance in the semifinal, and so, you know, Spain, like you mentioned, they're winning games through their midfield. Of course, Rodri, there's also a lot of talk about, you know, whether he would ever be able to get back to that Ballon d'Or winning level before his injury, and, you know, if he's not there right now, he's pretty close, and that Spain midfield with him in good form, is hard to overcome. I think the way that those two guys are playing, the third kind of point of the midfield, Dani Olmo, is not even necessarily in the midfield on that second Spain goal, the one that they scored from the run of play. It's Pedro Porro, the right back, coming up and connecting with Olmo, who is essentially playing as a hold-up nine. He's more of a second striker in the system, more of a withdrawn forward, or a really high attacker, but they can really afford to do that. Now, will Argentina be able to keep them on us, I think, will be a question. The other thing I'm really interested in, Seth, is looking at Lionel Scaloni's lineup decisions. In the semifinal, all of a sudden, out of nowhere, he pulls Simeone out of there. He had only played in that game that was massive, you know, overhauled, and the last group match was a dead rubber against Jordan, and all of a sudden, there he is, trying to cause chaos, but also to fix what is Argentina's biggest problem, as we talk about the defense, which is now where Molina is often stuck on an island. Why? Because Lionel Messi is not getting back to defend. As magic as he is, as much as he's done during this tournament, and as much as you don't really care if this guy comes back, when your right back is just sitting there with two guys running at him, you really need some help. I'm not sure it's going to be Simeone slotting into the midfield, but Scaloni has a decision to make, because I think De Paul has been a weak link of the midfield for a lot of it. Alistair's also had some pretty rough games, but overall, that's going to be what's watching the personnel. So, I mentioned the defense. Seth, let's move to those back lines. When we look at Argentina, it's been unchanged basically every game since Nicolas Pagliapico won the left back. Well, it's Pagliapico on the left, Licha Martinez, and Kuti Romero as the center backs. They've been, I guess how, a roller coaster makes it sound too extreme. What's a less intimidating ride? Like a tilt-a-whirl? They've kind of gone up and down, but you're okay putting your kids on it. Like, they're relatively safe, but there have been some moments where you're like, I don't know about this. And then Molina, as I mentioned, I think is the weak point on the right. On the Spain side, you've got fullbacks you really trust. And Pedro Porto, who's won the starting role with his goals, with the connection he has with Lenin Yemal, and Cucurella on the other side. And then an amazing performance in the semifinal as well from the center backs. The very young 19-year-old as well, but not as flashy as Lenin Yemal, Paulo Coversi, and Emerick Laporte, the veteran who was actually eligible as well for France. I think he played for some French youth teams as he's from that Basque region, but then made France, I guess, regret not picking him up quite some time ago, but still. Which unit do you see as stronger, Seth? I mean, honestly, I'm kind of giving another tick to Spain here because of the center backs, because of Molina as this weak link. Maybe not because of his own fault, but that's just where I see an opportunity to attack Argentina. Yeah. And I think you could look no further than the semifinal against England to see a prime example of Molina not quite living up to standard, where Anthony Gordon just kind of snuck in behind him and Molina fell asleep, and that's where the goal came from. And you can talk all you want about Messi, and I'm sure that doesn't help him, but that's just a one-on-one matchup that you would hope your fullback can win. Spain, obviously, they have given up one goal at this entire World Cup, which kind of says all you need to know about their backline. You know, Unai Simone has had some work to do, he's made some saves, but a lot of it has been just because of how they have kept the ball and how their backline is played. I mean, they defend with the ball, right? Let's move into goalkeepers. You mentioned Unai Simone. I'm giving Argentina the big tick here with Dibu Martinez. He hasn't been perfect either this World Cup. There have been some goals, I wonder if he could have done a little better there, but for the most part, I think he's consistent. I think he's such an emotional leader, a vocal leader. Whether you like the guy or not, his antics can get under some people's skin, but I think that's a plus, especially in a game like this, where you wouldn't mind if you're Argentina having Spain getting a little fired up, getting a card danger, etc. And Unai Simone has been on some walkabouts. Some weird moments in the Belgium game, some weird moments in the France game. He hasn't been made to pay for it, but with that high line, he has to come out harder and try and sweep, and sometimes he doesn't get it exactly right. I give Dibu the edge here, but I think reasonable people could disagree. Yeah, for sure. I mean, like you said, I think the difference here is that Spain is really defending as a collective, and they're defending by keeping possession, whereas I think you see Argentina more have to do some of these last-ditch emergency clearances, and that is a place where guys like Romero and Martinez excel. They had some great moments against England in the rest of the knockout phase, but this is going to be, obviously, a different kind of test against Spain. For Argentina, not just their backline, but as a whole, just staying disciplined, trying not to get too tired running around the field, chasing Spain in possession. I think that gets back to a factor that we talked about even before the World Cup, which is the kickoff time of this game. It's 3 o'clock. It's probably going to be hot, and that has to go as an advantage for Spain, a team that you would expect to have more of the ball. Well, not only that, but like, okay, Argentina's played two extra-time knockout games. Spain, I will say, has been largely in indoor venues while Argentina's had the Miami and the Kansas City game. It also depends on how you feel about L.A., because that game in L.A., the commentators were saying it was brutally hot. It didn't look hot. The numbers were not high. It could have been hot in the venue. It could have felt hot. I do think it'll be interesting to watch how that does affect things, but you also just have an Argentina team that is, quite frankly, older. Speaking of old, let's talk about Lionel Messi. He's 39 years old. He leads the Argentina attack. There's really no question about it. Who's next to him? Often, it's Julian Alvarez. I think it'll be him again in this game, although Lautaro Martinez comes in to that game against England and heads in the winning goal. Seth, I think you and I might have been able to finish off that header with such a beautiful cross from Messi's right foot, which is unusual for Messi, but he can still do it for sure. That's what Argentina's attacking looks like. Maybe it's not fair to put those two up against what is generally four players for Spain. Again, I said Daniel Mola. Can I include him in midfield? You're looking at Damien Yamal on one side. You're looking at Alex Baena on the other, and then you've got a forward who's been good, not great, I would say, Mikel Rizabal, the Real Sociedad player. To me, Seth, I'm giving this tick to Argentina and finishing with 2-2 because of the presence of Lionel Messi, and also not because of anything he's done wrong, necessarily. I'm not convinced that Damien Yamal is fully himself, fully fit, and fully ready for the occasion might sound wrong, but this is a 19-year-old kid in his first ever World Cup, and all the pressure has been put on him, and he came in with a hamstring injury that, to me, seemed like it may be, if this World Cup was a month later, I think we'd be seeing a difference in him, which is scary because he might lift the World Cup trophy. Yeah, I mean, I would agree that you've seen more splashes from him as opposed to kind of the way that he can consistently dominate a game, like we've seen so many times at Barcelona, and also with Spain. So, yeah. I mean, the Euros, the Nations League, you could go into this tournament, saying we're going to lean on an 18-to-turn 19-year-old kid because he had done it in the other two big competitions that he played. And, you know, at some point, you would think maybe Spain is going to need him to produce one of these individual moments of brilliance that we've gotten used to seeing from him. So far, they actually haven't needed that. It's been such a collective effort, and when you look at the other side, you know, for the first five games of the World Cup, it was like Messi carrying Argentina. And over the last couple games, some of his other teammates have kind of stepped up. And of course, you know, Messi delivered the key assist against England. He actually had both assists. The one for Enzo Fernandez was just kind of a simple square pass. But still... Another thing that you and I probably could have done. I couldn't have done the Enzo Fernandez shot, but I think I could have set him up. Right, right. Yeah, so like Messi has been sort of the main man for Argentina in a way that Yamal hasn't been and hasn't had to be. And so you do wonder, going into this game, if one or both of them will be required to have one of these kind of trademark moments to settle the game, or if they can kind of lean more on the collective, like Spain in particular. But as you're mentioning, I don't see a way that Argentina lifts the trophy without a great game from Messi. I think you could see a way that that happens for Spain without Yamal. But I also don't think it totally matters in the grand scheme of things what the legacy of each is. Because I think, I mean, Yamal is 19. He's going to write his next chapter. He's going to write one more chapter after that. We hope he keeps playing for a long time, because he's a lot of fun to watch. Messi, we know this is likely his last World Cup. I am not ruling out that he shows up on the field in Buenos Aires at that opening game in 2030 and does a little, I guess that's what Ronaldinho did, the shotgun, but does a little hello and maybe. But I don't think he wants to do. I mean, I think that he's a guy who wants to be, he wants to go out on top. He's going to give everything he can. But ultimately, this game to me doesn't really indicate what Messi was or wasn't. If they lose, I think he's still the same guy. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think that 22 kind of sealed his legacy forever. This is just like icing on the cake. I mean, if you want to continue to have the GOAT debate, which is like sort of played out and sort of hard to define. Yes, if he wins again on Sunday, maybe he's even more the GOAT than he was previously. But yes, obviously, his legacy is secure. And I just have to say, like, it's been really fun just as a neutral seeing him with Argentina these last four or five, six years, because it was so hard to watch him in the first 10, 15 years of his Argentina career. It was heartbreaking how close he kept getting. And it's kind of crazy to think now because of how much winning they've been doing. But like, he was known up until 2021 as a guy who could not get the job done at the international level. Beto Prio, cold chest, didn't have the heart, didn't have the gut. And it was in this building where he's going to play the final on Sunday, MetLife Stadium, where after the 2016 Copa America Centenario final, he says, I'm done. I'm not. I can't keep doing. And Argentina will be quite glad that he would commit to do otherwise. We'll see how glad they are on Sunday. But I think they're quite glad no matter what. There are some things that you could still, you know, like, you could eclipse Maradona, Lionel Scaloni would eclipse any other Argentine coach having won too. There are some milestones still there that would even, I think, build the legacy. But I think there's very little to lose. All right, Seth, I think I know where you're leaning, probably because I already read the document that we put together for USA Today. Who you got in this one? Who lifts the trophy? Who are we talking about when we reconvene with Laurie Lindsey next week? Yeah, there's just one thing that I can't get out of my head, which is the last 20, 25 minutes of the Argentina-England game. England is ahead and they are for the first 55, 60 minutes, probably slightly better. And they simply cannot get possession of the ball between the time that Anthony Gordon scores and the time Lautaro Martinez scores the winner for Argentina. And I just see that being so different in this game because you're facing a team in Spain that is the best in the world at keeping the ball, at, you know, choking off opposition chances. We saw them do it against France. And for that reason, I think if Spain, especially if they can take a lead, this is finally the one situation that I can't see Argentina coming back from. Taking a lead was actually the worst thing that England could have done in a lot of ways, because I think it gave them this idea, it gave Thomas Tuchel this idea of like, all right, time to protect this lead. And Argentina, this sort of urgency that they hadn't necessarily had. Something else happened in the last 15 to 20 minutes of that game that I can't get out of my mind. It's the same thing that happened in the last 15 to 20 minutes of the round of 16 game against Egypt. The same thing that happened late in extra time of both the game against Cape Verde and the game against Switzerland. And that is Argentina will not die. Look, we can go tactics, we can talk numbers, analytics, all that stuff is important, all that stuff matters, all that stuff determines who you win. But in international soccer, more than maybe any other discipline, maybe any other sport, this idea of a collective pulling in the same direction, this idea of heart, this idea of never say die is real. And I think that what you said, if Spain takes a lead, I think Spain actually needed to go lead, because I think no team has done that. No team has driven the stake through the heart of the Argentine title defense. Argentina has been allowed to hang around and hang around and hang around. At one point, they were five forwards out. For Argentina, they're chasing the Switzerland game, and it just didn't matter. He sticks Flaco Lopez out there with Lautaro, with Julian, and with Lionel Messi. And it's like, you can't punish it because you can't get the ball from them. You can't attack it. You can't hurt them. And I think that if Spain goes up two, that's when I'll start hearing the death bells, I guess, for the Argentine title defense. But I'm picking Argentina to win two, one. I think they'll kind of be in a similar... I totally agree with you. They're not gonna be able to take the ball off England, Spain, like they did against England. But I could see it kind of playing out in a bit similar. It's a great game. It's a great game. It feels illogical to pick Argentina, but it did kind of in the semifinal as well. Obviously, there were favorites in the other game, but it's just so hard to kill this team off, man. They're crazy. Yeah. I mean, we keep saying it. They can't keep getting away with this. They keep getting away with it. And I think you're right. And it just is clearly such an intangible thing with them right now. You just have to say these words like heart and mentality and desire, things that you can't measure, but it's clearly there. And this is clearly a team of winners. They still have not lost a knockout round major tournament game since 2019. And that means something, especially because they're running it back. These are basically the same players that won the 22 World Cup. And even before, even with that game, I think Scaloni is kind of saying, y'all figure it out, man. Oh, you're down to England? I could bring on Nico Paz. I could bring on a couple other young players. I could bring on Flaco Lopez. I could bring on these other. But y'all got it. Y'all got it. And that confidence and that trust in the group and each other and ultimately in Messi, right? The idea that they're pulling for Messi, that they want to send him off with this legacy, that they want to be part of what he's done. The way that people talk about him is not like other sports figures talk about any other teammate that I've really been around. And so I think it's an interesting sort of motivating factor, just what Messi has done and what he means to the group. But it looks better on paper, even if I gave two check marks on each side. I mean, that's the intrigue of this final. That's the intrigue a lot of times of international soccer. And we have this final that we didn't get into the kind of the connected tissue, the managers having a lot in common, the styles being not too dissimilar. A lot of the players, you know, Messi very much included with sort of roots in Spain or in Argentine influence in the case of the Atletico Madrid players with Diego Simeone having been there for so long. So there's just a lot to pull on. And we are pulling on it over on USA Today Sports. If you enjoyed this, hope you'll click over there and read some of our written thoughts. And also you'll subscribe for the next episode of the show. We'll wrap up the World Cup, talk a little bit more about the future of US men's national team, get into some other great topics next week with Lori Lindsey back. We'll talk to you guys then next time on the Sports Seriously, talk about