Has Hunter Greene Pitched His Last Game As a Red?

What is the chances that Hunter Green ever has a complete season again? I don't know that you can ever bank on that, much less him being your ace. And with a team that struggles to spend money and free agency, having $15 million wrapped up in a pitcher who's not going to pitch, it's a really tough place to be as you try to build a contender. We, this is not a cool topic for us to talk about. I'm just happy to be with you guys on a Monday. Very happy about that, but... Really excited that you're watching. Not great news coming out of Red's camp with Hunter Green and the news that he's having to undergo a second Tommy John surgery. Going to miss the entire 2027 season. Get the happy dance out of here. Don't love this news. It's the sad dance. It's the grab a Kleenex and cry. This is the worst news. I really, I had some time to process this, and our initial reaction was, oh, it's going to be Tommy John. Then we process it, and it was, it is Tommy John, and I think this is the worst injury the Reds could have had, like, to any of the guys, because they're paying him big money for them, even though he's on a value contract, so he's not on that controllable, reasonable deal. Chase Burns is younger. You have a guy like Sal Stewart, younger. Ellie. Like, maybe you could argue Ellie, but you're still not spending on Ellie what you're spending on Hunter Green. Hunter's older, and that's what stinks, is now you kept him. He clearly was hurt, and you couldn't have dealt him before the deadline. I've seen a lot of people say that. Like, he probably, what doesn't pass a physical, was dealing with this, and now he's going to miss all of next year, so now in 2028, which is the last year of his contract, there's an option in 29. That's such a mystery year. It's very Nicoladolo-esque from that standpoint, how we're going to feel about Nick this offseason going into next year. That's how 2028's going to feel. He's not going to have trade value. You don't know what he's going to be. You can't bake on him to be your ace, and so it really stinks because you're stuck with Hunter, which I wanted to be pre-trade deadline if it was healthy Hunter, and instead you're not going to get healthy Hunter until 2028 at best. In the span of about 48 hours, it shifted from Hunter Green is on the best contract in Reds history to is this the worst pitching contract in Reds history. We're talking about a massive jump in pay next year from $8 million to $15 million, with $16 million the year after and a $21 million club option. He now hasn't pitched, for all intents and purposes, in 26 for $8 million, $15 million in 2027. Now you're going into a $16 million year in 2028 with no idea what he can be, if he's even a major league level pitcher coming off a second Tommy John. Second Tommy John is the worst thing that can happen to pitchers in baseball. The return rate drops about 30% down to about 60%. At this point in modern baseball, it's about a 95% return rate for the first Tommy John, and you get down to about two thirds now with a second Tommy John surgery. There hasn't been a ton of success except for extreme outliers coming off of a second Tommy John surgery. You're talking about the Jacob deGroms of the world that have been able to come through that and return. Maybe that is Hunter Green. Maybe he can come through this and get back, but my biggest concern at this point is with the second Tommy John, we've seen so many little injuries hurt Hunter Green throughout his career. Missed significant time in various different seasons that haven't been the big surgery. Now that he has this second Tommy John, how much more likely are those little two start, three start surgeries? What is the chances that Hunter Green ever has a complete season again? I don't know that you can ever bank on that, much less him being your ace. And with a team that struggles to spend money in free agency, having $15 million wrapped up in a pitcher who's not going to pitch, it's a really tough place to be as you try to build a contender. Yeah, it is. And that's, that's it is the balance of navigating his injury and his future. And the thing is, I was talking with Charlie Goldsmith and he was like, yeah, I think he's going to come back. And there are people that think that the unfortunate part is this isn't a six month injury. We're not going to find out in, in good year next year, Oh, does Hunter look the same as the velocity there? Is he making his way back in good year next year, a hundred greens is going to be walking around and slowly rehabbing and slowly doing his thing and he's not going to pitch next year. And so that's such a long time, like think, think about all of the things that are going to happen in transpire between now and the next time we see Hunter green, which is likely going to be in February, 2028 in spring training from a, has the ability to be part of your rotation standpoint. And he's going to be a huge question mark. I can already feel it. Like, we're not going to be penciling him in as a, the ACE or the second guy. It's going to be, can you be three through five somewhere in that range? And maybe he proves everybody wrong. Maybe he pitches well enough to get that team option in 2029 and we're having a different conversation. But all of those things that came up pre-trade deadline about, ah, can he stay healthy? All of those they're real now, like the injury bug investing in him long-term. Is he part of this core? The answer is no. He can't be part of this core right now because of health. Maybe that changes. But as of now, it's really hard to see the path back to that realistically, especially with the money he's making. Yeah. And I was so excited for this young core, especially going into next season and with the way chase Burns had been pitching and the emergence of Sal Stewart, but with Hunter green, the thing I'm really going to be, you know, paying close attention to is making sure he doesn't feel the need to rush back from this, just given his injury history and all those little things that Jacob has mentioned that he's dealt with over the years. The last thing you would want coming back from this magnitude of a surgery is any kind of setback. And so he's already going to be missing the entire next season. You don't need that then eating into any more of 2028. So don't rush back. Just, you know, go about this the right way and, you know, hopefully it'd be ready to go for 28. Part of me wonders. And the first thing I thought when this popped up is have we seen the last of Hunter green in a Reds uniform. You talk about a whole year now missing in 2027, a massive jump in 2028 to that $16 million a year number who would be the highest paid red on this year's team. And then a $21 million club option in 2029, if he's healthy after that 2027 season, could the Reds move him before 28 to get that money off the books, to give another team the opportunity to bet on that club option potentially on this contract and still garner some kind of significant return for Hunter green? I don't know. I think the answer to that question probably relies on Rhett Louder and Nick Lodolo's hands. If one of those guys can seize the number three spot in the rotation and feel pretty similar to a Burns Abbott, louder Lodolo, as we did at some point this year to a green Burns Abbott top three, then I think it makes it a little easier to stomach. But the route to the Reds getting in contention in 2028, now looking forward with him out through 2027 is still in my mind, having Hunter green in this rotation. I can't see a route where we're sitting here in free agency and the Reds have an ability to add a Hunter green level player when he's healthy, which is why it's such a difficult conversation to have. They have to weigh those different things right now. Because if you trade Hunter green, what are the chances you ever get a picture of his caliber again? If you can't get it on the open market, it's, it's tough because if you, if you did trade him before he pitches again, you are giving him up for pennies just to shed the contract. And if he's good again, then that really stinks. On the other side of it, if he just stinks, then you don't pick up the option and you just lose Hunter green. And that's the end of the era after being your top pick and on the cover of SI and a pillar of what you were hoping to be just stinks. It all stinks. Hopefully it isn't as bleak a year from now as it is right now, but it feels really darn bleak and we might not have answers a year from now. And that's the unfortunate reality for Hunter green.