Solar Activity Update Today February 4th 2024!

James Coffman World News Report today, February 4th, 2025. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. Ladies and gentlemen, we've had a very quiet day here on Earth. We've had very little solar activity of any kind that includes solar winds or any type of plasma or coronal mass ejection impacts. If we look at our KP indexes here, first our Boulder KP index, very little has happened along with all the other indexes. We do have three hours of geomagnetic disturbance that showed up on our college index, which is quite strange because I don't see any plasma or solar winds striking Earth all day long. Headed over to our GOES X-ray flux. What do we see? Well, we've got a lot coming this way. A lot of these flares that you see here are Earth-directed, and thus far today we've had five strong M-flares, some not so strong, but a couple that were very impressive. And we all know we had the 8.88 M-flare yesterday, almost an X-flare. All right, heading over to SpaceWeatherLive.com. The big flare of the day is the M4.7 flare that peaked around 11.21 UTC time for about 5.21 this morning central time. Now, after that, we did have another M flare that's not been assigned a sunspot group thus far. It could mean it was a filament eruption. But we will be able to pick that up on our X-ray absorption prediction center. Now, we have only two sunspots that have generated M-class solar flares thus far today, 3981, which has been giving us all the trouble, and believe it or not, 3977, which seems to have actually expelled an M-flare and then dissipated. Here is 3977 generating that M1.2 flare that peaked at 518 UTC time, so about 1018 last night central time. Currently, we have a 20% chance of having an X-class solar flare today, an 85% chance of having an M-class solar flare, which that ship has sailed, and we've been running a steady C baseline now. Back to a steady C baseline, so I believe that that should be 100%, but we'll go with 99%. Heading over to our HMI intensogram, well, we can get a good look at 3981 directly earth-facing. It looks like a really complex sunspot group. You can see it's red, which means it's a delta-class sunspot group. Ones that are orange or beta gamma, and the green ones are simple sunspot groups. Now, what's strange is that AR3977 was located right here. Now, I thought it might be this sunspot group on the limb here, but I did some more checking, and as y'all will see, it actually expelled an impulsive solar flare and then dissipated completely. I really don't remember that happening all within just a few hours time. I want to assure you that of course 3981 all of this are earth-facing and we are in the strike zone for sure and it is well crackling with M-class solar flares and it could push out an X-class solar flare in an associated coronal mass ejection at any time. Over to GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager 195 angstroms. I don't see the M-flare that hasn't been assigned a sunspot group unless this is it right here. I really don't believe it is. So I'm going to say that we can't really locate that M-class solar flare that's reported on our GOES X-ray flux. We see how busy this area is, is with all the sunspot groups right here. We also see that we have a coronal hole coming around to be earth-facing within probably the next 48 hours. Over to our D-region X-ray absorption prediction center. Well, that was the large flare of the day, the 4.7, and this is the mystery flare here. Not quite sure what sunspot group it came from. I'm guessing it came from 3981. That would be what was logical. And everyone's been getting their dose of at least a C-flare all day long, all around the globe. Headed over to SDO HMI magnetogram image. We're getting some really, really recent pictures here. Look how complicated this area is up here. It's going to be a miracle if it doesn't expel an X-flare that's directly earth-facing. It really is. It looks like we might have some sunspot groups coming around the limb as well. You can't really see the coronal hole on SDO here. This was taken today at 19:30 UTC time, so this is the latest and greatest. You can see that Sunspot groups on the limb have already made their way around. We'll take one last look before we go. Now, today we had solar winds start out at about 500 kilometers per second and go all the way down to 400 kilometers per second. That was because of this coronal hole here that was Earth-facing. We actually saw 700 kilometers per second solar winds yesterday. Here we are with all of our different sunspots here, and if we count 77 that seems to have disappeared in this sunspot group here, we have a total of nine sunspot groups earth-facing. We can see one coming around the limb here. It's easy to see the coronal hole that will soon be earth-facing, and this was again not taken as recently as the last picture. It was just taken last night at 8:06 Central Time, but it gives you a great idea of what's going on. With that said, God bless you and yours, folks. Lots of coronal mass ejections inbound. We should see a lot of solar weather over the next three or four days, and that could continue depending on, well, how these sunspot groups work out. God bless. Please share, subscribe, and always remember. Anything's possible in Bizarro World.