European security and Ukraine talks top agenda at Dublin summit

Leaders from more than 40 European nations are in Dublin this Thursday for a European political community summit focused precisely on the continent's security. It's also a first occasion for those leaders then to digest the outcome of those U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi. Here's the French president. I believe that today it is essential for Europe to have a clear and unified vision of what it wants for Ukraine and for itself. And I believe that the content of this vision determines its format. We must now clarify what our peace plan entails and what a plan for a future security architecture looks like. Today's statement does just that. The Determinant. Well, for more on this, we're going to speak to our Europe editor, Armin Georgian. Hi, Armin. So the EU at large has really been rattled by this idea of a review of Europe's entire security architecture. My guest earlier said that that was a euphemism coming from Vladimir Putin. Can you tell us more about it? Well, Russia's long-standing aim is to push NATO back to its 1997 border, and it's made no secret of that. In fact, it said this very thing back when talks were happening between the US and Moscow in late 2021, early 2022, so just before Putin launched the full-scale war in Ukraine. Why 1997? Well, from the Russian side, that's obviously before Before. A major swathe of countries in Central and Eastern Europe joined NATO. So if this is a literal demand, if, you know, going back to 97, it means basically all those countries have to unjoin NATO, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and so on and so forth. That's obviously a non-starter from NATO's point of view. But maybe what the Kremlin is trying to do is by starting out with that kind of maximalist position is to at least obtain something from the. Trump administration and that something would be a reduction of U.S. troops in those very same NATO countries that joined. After 1997, that is something that Putin might think he can obtain from Trump. And given Trump's history of dealings with Putin, it's not really surprising that the Europeans are nervous about this, but then they have been nervous about it for a long time. That's why for several years now, they've been saying no solution on Ukraine without Ukraine and crucially, no solution on Ukraine without Europe. Now, Armin, just moments ago, we heard in that clip of Emmanuel Macron, we heard him say that today it's essential for Europe to have a clear and unified vision of what it wants for Ukraine and for itself. He says we must clarify what our peace plan entails. So that begs the question of who should speak for Europe in any negotiations with Russia? Has the EU been any clearer on that point thus far? Well, this is a question that's been coming back for several months now, actually. And I think we have to separate two things. One is obviously the... Personalities and then the substance on the actual person himself or herself. Obviously, there is already an EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, but also at the EU Council, I've heard sources there telling me that they think Antonio Costa should be the special envoy because he's actually the representative of all the EU member states at the EU Council in Brussels. And then obviously other people have been floated, former political figures like Angela Merkel. But I think all of that is maybe a bit of a distraction, Erin. What's really important is the substance. It's what does this representative actually do rather than who he or she is. And I think the bottom line here is that Europe cannot be a mediator between Ukraine and Russia because it is clearly on the side of Ukraine. Everyone understands that, but it's worth clarifying perhaps. And I was talking about this very point to the Estonian foreign minister quite recently. Let's take a listen to what he had to say on that. We must be there, but we must understand as well the position. We cannot let us to drag into the mediating position what Putin really wants that Europe should be there. Pointing one special envoy and then trying to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. It means that we will be out from the position where we are now. It's about Europe. So we are together with Ukraine in this process. So I think we can infer from what he was saying there, Aaron, that initially, at least, the EU would be basically comprehensively... supporting and backing the Ukrainian position at the negotiating table, if it comes to that. that. The more nuanced question, I guess, and that's maybe for a later point in the process, is Is, does Europe's... do Europe's interests coincide completely with Ukraine? Are they overlapping but slightly different? Where there might be some differences, and also within the EU itself, is on the key question of troops on the ground. Some European countries want Or open to having their boots on the ground as part of security guarantees for Ukraine. Others are much more sort of reticent about that. But I think in the initial stages, the idea would be that an EU representative would basically be just strengthening the Ukrainian position in any negotiations. We'll see how that pans out at this meeting then in Dublin. Armen Georgian, thank you very much.