The Giants were gifted a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY...

In 2021, Kevin Gausman went 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 227 strikeouts for a Giants team that won 107 games. Then, he left for Toronto, and that January, he tweeted that San Francisco never made him an offer. The Giants say that they talked to him in season and when free agency opened, but they never came close to matching Toronto's five-year $110 million deal. Well, that contract just ran out, and the Giants lost 97 games with a rotation that has several holes. Gosman's a free agent, and the one that got away is officially on the market again. This is a golden opportunity for the San Francisco Giants to fix the biggest what-if of the last five years, if he'll even say yes. Right now, the Giants only have two sure starters for 2027. They went 65-97 in 2026, finished 4th in the National League West, and used 14 different starters. Their run differential was minus 91. Logan Webb had a 3-2-2 ERA over 207 innings in 2025. In 2026, it was a 4-3-1 ERA over 160.2 innings. Landon Roop is the other shoe-in who had a 4.01 ERA over 29 starts. Adrian Hauser, who will also likely get a rotation spot, ended the year on the 60-day IL. The injuries to all of the Giants' young starters mean that they need at least two arms this offseason, and none of them can be projects. So who's the guy that actually makes this rotation look different? It was almost this guy again. He took the Giants' $18.9 million qualifying offer after 2020 and pitched 192 innings for them in 2021. That team won 107 games, and the pitcher who started the most of them left in free agency. Toronto announced a five-year $110 million deal on December 1st, 2021. Gausman said that the Giants never made him an offer, and the Giants said that they talked. What's not in dispute was the Giants' next signing. The lockout ended March 2022, and the Giants signed Carlos Rodon for two years and $44 million. However, he had an opt-out after the first year, and he used it. Gosman, on the other hand, was the one Zaidi called a tough loss. He didn't leave the Giants because he wanted to. He left because Toronto offered more years and more money. So, what did Gosman provide for the Blue Jays during those years? In 2022, he went 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 174.2 innings. In 2023, he was better, a 3-1-6 ERA with 237 strikeouts in 185 innings. In 2024, it slipped to 3.83, then 3.59 in 2025, over 193 innings. That's four seasons of 174 innings or more, 31 starts in three of them, and a 3-8-7 career ERA across 2,088 innings. Toronto got exactly what a five-year contract is supposed to be, a starter who takes the ball every fifth day. For the majority of the last couple of years, the only giant to have done that is Logan Webb, and in 2026 that wasn't the case, so clearly they need help. A pitcher who gives you 180 innings is worth real money to a team that used 14 starters and still lost 97 games. Now, put 2021 next to the clock the Giants are on today. Webb has two seasons left on his deal through 2028. Now, yes, there is some pitching help on the way, but it's not here yet. Jackson Flora, the Giants' fourth overall pick in this year's draft, threw two scoreless innings with four strikeouts in his Double-A Richmond debut. Yes, that gets him closer to San Francisco, but at the earliest, it wouldn't be till the end of 2027. So the Giants need an arm for 2027 and 2028, who does not block anyone when the prospects get here. A two-year deal is that arm because it ends the same time as Webb. We know the San Francisco Giants hate those long-term big money starter contracts. If you're enjoying today's video, make sure to go down below and hit that subscribe button. About two-thirds of you guys watching these videos are not actually subscribed to the channel. It's completely free, takes just a second of your time, and would be greatly appreciated. Next, the money. There is no qualifying offer on Gosman, so whoever signs him gives up no draft pick. And earlier today, Alex Pavlovich and Justice De Los Santos reported that the Giants will most likely not go after guys with the QO attached to them. The Giants have about $50 million of room under the 2027 tax line, according to our Spotrac import. Devers makes just under $30 million in 2027, and Adamas makes $26 million, so the big checks are already written. This is where it goes deeper than a spreadsheet. Gosman is extremely close with Logan Webb, and on Giants Talk this week, Alex Pavlovich and Cole Kuyper referred to him as Logan's mentor. While he did mention wanting to raise a family in Toronto, he also was very clear about how much he loved San Francisco and the Bay Area. If this were to come to fruition, there'd be no question Kevin Gosman would be comfortable heading to his new team. Not to mention, the guy who would be signing Kevin Gosman to this deal is the one, the only, Buster Posey, who caught him in 2021. On that same episode, they called him a hybrid of a vibes pick and a smart addition, and they mentioned that nobody on that 2021 team has quite been the same player. It also would make things right with the front office that's in there right now, not the one that let him go. Now yes, the 4.51 ERA is going to be concerning, but the numbers behind it are much better. His expected ERA sits at the 53rd percentile, so he was closer to average than being really bad. He ranks in the 95th percentile for innings and the 93rd for walk rate, with a 4.3% walk rate. Buster Posey and Tony Vitello have been clear that next year, their pitchers will not be walking as many batters. The four-seamer is about 51% of his pitches and sits just under 94 miles an hour. It rides 16 and a half inches, which is why hitters still miss it at the top of the zone. Hitters make 90.7 mile an hour contact off the four-seamer, and just 83.1 mile an hour contact off the splitter. That splitter is why he's been so effective and why he gets the chase, the 80th percentile and a 70th percentile whiff rate. The fastball velocity is only in the 39th percentile, so it's not like there's much more to lose. A pitcher with that type of profile is a good fit for a big ballpark and a team that needs innings more than strikeouts. Here's the part that stops it from being easy. Gausman is 35 and turns 36 in January. In 2024, he went 9-12 with a 4.51 ERA over 177.2 innings. That was worth 1.1 bWAR across the Blue Jays and the Cubs. The Cubs got him at the deadline and he made 9 starts for them with a 4.83 ERA. In game 2 of the wildcard series, he gave up 3 runs on 5 hits in 3.1 innings. But the tools are still there for the most part, the 80th percentile in chase rate and the 86th percentile in walk rate. The splitter is about 40% of what he throws, and when that gets to 2 strikes, it goes up to 48.4%. The first time through the order, he allows just a 622 OPS, and the third time, that jumps to 807. At this stage of his career, he's probably closer to a pitcher you want for 177 innings, not 200, and a team that used 14 starters will take that. Now, the harder question is whether he wants that. If he had to choose between a Giants team that lost 97 games and a shoo-in for the playoffs, the Giants are the long shot. No matter what way you look at it, there's going to be competition. In MLB Trade Rumors' three landing spots for him, they mentioned a return to the Blue Jays. And a return to Toronto is called likely by the Athletics' Bannon, and the Cubs are said to be interested too. Jays Journal suggested a one-year deal, which makes sense for Toronto, and does not give him the extra year that the Giants could offer him. A one-year deal means a pitcher is going to a team that wants to win, and Toronto will pitch him exactly that. The Giants will have to make the case that two or three years in San Francisco beats one year in a winning town. So what does the Giants offer look like if they actually decide to go after Kevin Gosman and form a reunion? MLB trade rumors typically does a pretty good job at predicting some of these markets, and they predicted two years at $44 million. That's the same total the Giants gave Carlos Rodon in 2022 for a pitcher who's thrown more innings than almost anyone in the league. The difference is the opt-out. Rodon got one, and he used it after just his first year in San Francisco. So the clean version is two years without an opt-out, because the Giants need the second year, not Gosman. Now, the second part of that offer is the role. He's not returning to be the ace of the San Francisco Giants. That would still be Logan Webb. That's more important than people would like to think, because the Giants are not asking him to be that 2021 guy again, just to throw the innings that the 2026 team couldn't find. And it already seems like virtually every penny spent this offseason from the San Francisco Giants is going to go towards pitching. The Giants have roughly $50 million of room, so they can do this and still go after a second starter and some relievers. Sign Gosman for two years and actually make him an offer this time. Sure, Farhan Zaidi and the last regime could have said that they didn't like the money and the years, but this time, the timeline, the money, and of course Webb, it all fits. For where the Giants are at and this stage of Kevin Gosman's career, you absolutely take a little over $20 million a year for 180 innings and a high 3's ERA. The one caveat? Kevin Gosman might simply want to go to a team in contention. So, we will be following his market extremely close because I do think it's very likely that the Giants are in on him. Let me know in the comment section below. Do you want to see the Giants go after Kevin Gosman for a reunion, or do you want to see them sign someone else? Let me know in the comment section below. And if you enjoyed today's video, hit that subscribe button. Thank you for watching.