Pete Hegseth's chance to survive impeachment probe

We are going to delve very deep into the current most hot topic in the political sphere, and that is, of course, the articles of impeachment that were introduced against the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth yesterday by Representative Thomas Massie. He, again, is the Republican from Kentucky who is leading this GOP-led effort to oust Hegseth from his seat. Again, the House expected to vote on this today, actually, and see if this motion goes forward. Now, we've heard from Pete Hegseth Seth, regarding this call. Calling it a political circus, this impeachment effort. We also heard from Representative Ro Khanna, who is that representative out of California. Speaking on this topic, I want to play you just a little bit of those statements before we dive into our interview in just a second. What one disgruntled and defeated congressman is attempting is not oversight and it's not accountability. It's a political spectacle, a personal manifesto driven by ego and resentment. Time for one man's final days in Congress to try to do damage to this president, this country, and most irresponsibly. The warriors who defend it. It's all about Hegseth, not about the service members. He needs to go. I'm working with Thomas Massie to try to get the votes for tonight. And that will be a signal that we're actually listening to the American people. But if the president had any sense, he would do what George W. Bush did with Rumsfeld. He'd ask for Hegseth's resignation. I mean, the entire country has demanded an end to the war. So much so that you have J.D. Vance going on Twitter and saying, yeah, this war is not a good idea. I mean, you're the vice president. Get rid of Hegseth. But if they're not going to do it, then Congress will. Now there are a lot of questions about what this could mean for the future of US politics. And I know that I myself have lots of questions about that. And that's why we're bringing in a political expert, John Hanley. He is a political science lecturer at UCF. Always a pleasure to have you on the show here. Good morning, Hayden. Good morning. This entire impeachment effort here has brought up a lot of questions that I've been seeing at least on social media from people who are kind of wondering what exactly this is going to mean for the future of US politics, the war in Iran. Could you just give us your initial reaction to these articles of impeachment Being brought up yesterday by Representative Massey. Well, I think the articles of impeachment, there's a bunch of them, for one thing. Some of them relate to alleged violations of the War Powers Resolution. So the Trump administration bringing troops into a military situation in Iran and also in Yemen. And then having them, continuing to have them beyond the 90-day limit that the War Powers Resolution ostensibly sets. Now the War Powers Resolution is of dubious constitutionality. Presidents have argued against it a number of times. It's been violated in the same way a number of times in the past. And so one of the major questions here is how and whether Congress would stand up to the president in face of a pretty clear violation, at least of the language of that resolution. And one of the things that I find interesting about this, and I brought this up when we talked to Dr. Humansadra yesterday, which is this is a GOP-led effort, which is typically the party that Hegseth has aligned himself with. Do you find that particular instance here interesting or indicative of where we might be going in terms of political power with both of these parties? Well, you've got Thomas Massey is a libertarian member of Congress. He's been beating this drum, I think, for a while. He's also a lame duck. His term ends in the end of December and he hasn't been reelected. So he faces little repercussions for this. I think there are probably some other Republicans who are willing to go along with this as well Because Hegseth is... Made some enemies in Congress. That's sure what it seems like here. And now Republicans could start the impeachment proceedings now, vote and proceed with the trial. What do you make of this quick action here? Well, they have a somewhat limited calendar as we come into Thanksgiving and Christmas. In the Senate, they're looking to do some confirmations of federal judges. So I think there'll probably be some behind the scenes decision making about whether to proceed, whether to put this into an investigation, at least in the House of Representatives. And then in the Senate, What they'll do there. It'll be interesting to see what happens and now I kind of just want to get your opinion on something that we heard from Pete Hegseth earlier calling this a political circus. This impeachment trial impending impeachment trial here, what do you make of his claims there? Well, I think, you know, clearly from Hegseth's point of view, he's done nothing wrong. He's been protecting the country. There's also, I think, a stylistic element to his response. We've seen this a number of times in the Trump administration where, you know, the boss wants people to go out and very forcefully go on the offensive and attack rather than You know, conceding points or looking weak in some way. And so, you know, the downside of that from Hegseth's, well, from Trump's perspective and from the Republicans' perspective is that, you know, a good performance here by Hegseth might draw Trump more closely to him and as a result force Republicans to support Hegseth when, you know, they might have wanted him to be moving towards the exit. Sure, and now as we look at the Democrats having the House and the Senate in the majority, do you think that's gonna have any influence on how this trial plays out? Well, again, it depends on the timing. If they're able to bring the timing where the trial would be in January, it would be with the new Senate under Democratic control. And so they might be able to draw things out a little bit more. I think then you face some some real questions for the Democrats, how vigorously are they going to pursue? a trial of Hegseth, considering that, you know, even though the Democrats have 54, even 56 votes in the Senate, they need 67 votes to remove Hegseth. And so those votes, might be fairly unlikely given that they need at least 11 Republican votes and it's hard to find 11 Republican votes in the Senate for anything that the Democrats want or anything that goes against Donald Trump. So are they willing to spend a lot of time, energy, effort, and political capital around you know, Hegseth. and something that's a likely loser in the end, that's something for them to decide. And the question that I've seen circulating online a lot is whether or not this impeachment trial shouldn't go through. Is that going to put an immediate end to the Iran war or does that completely outside of this? No, I don't think so, because, you know, obviously, even if Hegseth were removed, you'd pass that to, you know, an acting secretary of defense. And so then the trial would be able to continue. You know, certainly, as I mentioned about the dynamic with Hegseth defending himself and going on the attack, and so therefore... Trump is more supportive of him, and he said, oh, he's done an A-plus job, was very demonstrative this morning, I think, after Hegseth spoke. Does attacking Hegseth lock Trump a little bit more into Iran? That's a question I think that everyone in Washington is going to be asking whether they're Democrats or Republicans. And that's the question that I know that I'll be asking and many others online will as well. I wanted to ask you one last question before we let you go here. Do you think now that the balance of power has shifted after these midterms that we're going to see additional impeachments or or trials similar to this one on Capitol Hill or in DC. You could. Again, the question is, how much are you going to actually get out of this, especially if you're not going to win and remove someone? There are going to be people, So, you know, the Democrats are going to face problems with their left flank. The left flank wants success. And they're going to blame the Democrats if they're not able to remove some of these officials. The other alternative, I think, from the Democrats' perspective is instead of actually sincerely wanting to impeach and remove people, you can use investigatory power to expose, to To embarrass. To drive Trump and these unsuccessful people and policies more tightly together in a way that looks bad to the public. And I think that might be a more profitable strategy for the Democrats because it doesn't commit them to as much time or effort. And it's also less likely to end in demonstrable failure. Which, you know, impeachment and removal is likely to do under the, you know, they don't have total power in Congress, even in Congress, let alone in the entire government. And so they should probably choose, you know, techniques and procedures that are going to allow them to be successful over the amount of power that they actually hold. We'll see what strategy they end up taking in the end there, but it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. John Hanley, UCF political science lecturer, it is always such a pleasure having you on to explain these pretty complicated and interesting political issues. Thank you, Hayden.