US midterms 2026: Is MAGA dead after Republican defeats? | This Is America

Hello, this is America, a country still processing a huge political shift one week on. Here in reliably red Texas, previously reliably red Texas, the Democrats wiped the GOP out, leaving just one Republican elected official in statewide office. Similar losses in other Republican areas across the country. So what happens now? President Trump has spent years promoting his MAGA movement, Make America Great Again. But has it had its day? And if it has, what or who comes next? Lots to talk about from Texas shortly. But first, let's hand it to the team in Washington, D.C. Here's Alex Marquardt. Thank you, Phil. The Republicans went into last week's midterms with full control of both houses of Congress. They then emerged afterwards, not only having lost the majorities resoundingly, but having lost seats that had been previously safely red for decades. As the Republican Party looks to regroup, it needs to decide which direction it will take. Much of that, at least in Congress, will be decided by whoever wins the leadership votes in both the House and the Senate. Tuesday's vote has already been paused once, with dozens of Republicans calling for it to be delayed by as much as a month. And then there are questions about the MAGA movement. It was created by Donald Trump, and it has been the Republicans' dominant force for years. But with Trump not allowed to run again in 2028, Will anyone inherit the movement, or will it end? Now, many Republican members of Congress and commenters have been scathing in their assessment of the party's midterm failure. Take a listen. You know, our messaging stings. We've got to change that, and I've talked to leadership, and hopefully they've listened. But it's the result of gerrymandering. So that's what gerrymandering does. It distorts what would otherwise be. Not even, but a relatively similar amount of members. The American people didn't like this midterm redistricting, didn't like the fact that the leader of the country was trying to rig what went on in the midterm elections. He repelled those folks with his policies by ICE. 2026 was not simply a blue wave. It was a blue tsunami. It was a Watergate-level repudiation. Now our Alex Baird has a closer look at just where Republicans lost that support. So we've been standing up here for weeks before the midterms and on the night watching states up here slide blue and then ultimately flip. But who did the Republicans actually lose that night? What happened to that base that voted Donald Trump back into the White House in 2024? And don't forget when the president said this. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. Now let's take a look at the AP voter poll. That basically captures how people actually voted on the night at the election. So let's get this off. We've been looking at it far too much and have a look at how people voted according to age. Now, after moving towards Trump in the 2024 election, young voters swung dramatically away from the Republicans. This is Republican leaning, Democrat, and then you've got the years and the age. You can see there a huge boomerang. In fact, youth voters were the biggest movers between 2026 and 2024. Back then they were roughly 50-50 split blue-red. And now, well, look at that. And then there's vote according to race. Markedly here, you've got the Latino vote. Back in 2024, every single Latino voting bloc was shifting right. Now it's the total opposite, it's pinged back to the Democrats by 27 points and honestly it's not restricted to the Latino community, it's happening across the board. The Republicans lost black voters, white voters, Asian voters. And then you have gender, I'll lift that up here. The first time Democrats carried men in a National House vote since 2008, that's so far back that we didn't even put it on here. Now, behind that vote, you have men under 30. Back in 2024, they were a massive group credited with helping Trump get to victory. Well, this time, the Republicans, they lost them. 66% voted Democrat. Now, across all of that data, race, age, gender, party affiliation, almost every group, when the AP voter poll asked if their vote was an express opposition to Trump, don't forget he said voters are on the ballot, the number one response was yes. So let's dig into the future of the Republican Party with our guests. We have Patrick Mara. He is the chairman of the Washington, D.C. Republican Party. And Leslie Shedd. She is a Republican strategist and the founder of Rising Communications. Thank you both for being back with me. We are now exactly a week out from the election. Leslie, I'm sure, like Patrick and I, you had a very long election night. Patrick was with me here on set. But you and the rest of the Republican Party have been taking the last week to take stock of... Frankly, the drubbing that Republicans took last week. Leslie, first of all, did you ever think that the results would have been this bad? No, 100 percent. In fact, every person that I spoke to, I thought we would lose the House. I thought that several of our Senate seats would be in jeopardy. But I did not think we would lose nearly as much as we did. And most importantly, I didn't think we would lose across so many categories in the way that we did. It was a resounding loss for the Republican Party, and it's a problem. Yeah, I remember for me the moment that I knew it was going to be much more significant than we thought was when Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Patrick, how about you? A week later, your reflection. Same thing. When we were sitting on set and they called South Carolina, I felt a gut punch at that point. And also when Iowa and Kansas went, I mean, those are two, they should have been solidly red states. especially Kansas, but there were national factors involved, especially as they relate to the economy that helped to exacerbate those losses. But then the losses, as was noted, they were all around. I mean, it just wasn't in these few places I had, you know, I had two cards on set that listed out kind of the swing districts in the House and the swing seats of the Senate. We lost every single thing on those cards. And at the beginning of the night, I would have said, oh, we might lose half, and that's a bad night. And now, as the party looks to find its footing, decide the direction that it wants to go in, And like I said, Leslie, you're an alumna of Capitol Hill. You've got a lot of friends and colleagues who are still up there. How would you characterize the mood inside the party? I mean, there's a lot of frustration. And there's both private and now on Twitter public discussion happening as far as Who's to blame? What's to blame? And what caused the problem here? To me, I think the answer lies in North Carolina. If you go and look, we suffered a resounding defeat in the state of North Carolina across the board. Something like 60 percent of the state voted for Democrats. The House congressional delegation went from 10 Republicans for Democrats to 10 Democrats for Republicans. And they swept every statewide race. But at the same time, there were three constitutional amendments on the ballot. And all of them were promoted by by Republicans and promoted Republican policies. It was about lowering taxes. It was about ensuring that future tax increases could not take place and requiring an I.D. to vote in elections. And every single one of those passed with at least 60 percent. So what that tells me is that Republican policies are still popular in the state. But we've got to figure out a better way to be talking about those and making sure that voters understand we're on we're on their side. North Carolina, always a fascinating and important state to look at because it is so purple, and it was one of the ones that came in early in the night, being on the East Coast. Roy Cooper picking up that Republican seat. That was the first big pickup for Democrats in the Senate, and kind of, it was expected, but it kind of set the tone of where the rest of the evening was going to go. In terms of the reaction, Patrick, Leslie just mentioned frustration. Do you feel it's, is it introspection? Is it finger-pointing? A bit of both? It's a bit of both, I think. There is great surprise that, based on the economic uncertainty that voters expressed on Election Day, and that's, and remember, that's, yes, that's the Iran war, that's the price of gas, that's the price of oil, but that's also the tariffs, that's also a little bit of inflation, that also was AI in these rural areas, you know, these voters felt very, they feel very uncertain about AI, and they don't see that as a benefit, they saw leaders in DC going overseas They saw them focused on other things like the Iran war. And so that's why it is important that the party gets back to its roots, gets back to its roots of limited government, gets back to its roots of economic opportunity. And you see that even over here when the discussion was on, you know, these young voters, these young voters feel very economically uncertain. These Latino voters that we lost, very economically uncertain. So it's very important that we grow the coalition. I think we're going to have a similar night going into 2028. Otherwise we'll have a similar night in 2028. Latino voters were critical in the state of Texas and Texas really exemplifies what happened to Republicans on Tuesday night because Democrats swept the statewide races. They're now in control of basically everything except the state senate. So that was really, I think, that is just the biggest indication of what Republicans experienced in 2026. We're going to have to wait until we get to Texas and all across the country. Our Phil Lavelle took their They say a week's a long time in politics. temperature. For Republicans, it has been an eternity. Al Jazeera now calling it for the Democrat. Bob Brooks. South Carolina. Governor of Ohio. The Senate seat in North Carolina. Calling this race for Senator John Ossoff. Ten years ago, Donald Trump won a victory that floored Democrats. The office of President of the United States. Now a loss that has floored his own side. No one saw that coming, but... Man, we got beat hard. Anger over affordability, the war in Iran, tariffs and more. Taking the Senate and the House out of Republican hands, control going back to the Democrats. We're at a crisis point, I think, but I think it's a necessary one. People are hurting and we can't just bulldoze our way through that. We've got to understand human suffering and provide fiscal and social conservatives the panacea to these problems. And we haven't done a good job with that. When you think of Republicans or President Trump, for many, this is what comes to mind. MAGA, make America great again. He started this movement, but will it end with him? So we can say, without hyperbole or gloating, this is the end of the Trump era. Already, who comes next as Republican leader, possibly president, is the big question. Remember, constitutionally, Donald Trump can't run again in 2028. The vice president, J.D. Vance, is an almost certain contender, as is Ron DeSantis, Florida's outgoing governor, who tried once before. So did Senator Ted Cruz, the only Republican left here in Texas holding statewide office. Noises are being made. J.D. Vance publicly admitting online the Iran war was why Republicans did badly. Others seemingly making their pitches early, too. I think people can look at Florida and show How you can deliver big results and how you can build a durable coalition. We need to rebuild. Getting behind policies that directly benefit the constituents we lost. And don't forget Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has also had his eyes on the White House before. I would prefer Marco Rubio, I like his thoughts. J.D. Vance is fantastic, I absolutely love him, but there's a great list of other people that are options as well. How do you think the next leader of the Republican Party is going to be able to build a coalition between MAGA and other Republicans? MAGA was an expression of what a lot of us believe. What form it will take in the future will differ wildly. It will have a different name, different label, a different president, perhaps, different figurehead. But ultimately, it's a lot of the same values that we've been fighting for for a very long time. The midterms are over. Republicans are looking to the road ahead. Next stop, 2028. Will MAGA be part of that journey? Phil Lavelle, Al Jazeera, Round Rock, Texas. So, Leslie, I'm going to put to you that very simple question of what is the state of the MAGA movement, because, of course, its standard bearer, Donald Trump, took a huge blow on Tuesday night. It was widely seen as a rebuke to him and his policies. But does MAGA have a future? I think MAGA does have a future. The president is still very popular within the party. And keep in mind, right now, I think the best example that shows you MAGA's not dead and the president is still powerful is that in the House, you have two men that are vying to be the next minority leader, the leader of the Republican Party in the House, Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. Neither one of them are running away from Donald Trump. Neither one of them are trying to do anything to distance themselves from the president. In fact, they're trying to pull him closer. So, you know, a lot of the people who lost last week, We're centrists, the people who might be more willing to buck the president if they disagree with him. And the ones that are left are going to be the ones that are the most loyal to him. So I think that the president's power will remain, especially with the Republicans that are still in Congress. And I think that, you know, MAGA will continue. But with the caveat is there are no other Donald Trumps. Donald Trump is the only Donald Trump out there. And any time a candidate tries to pretend that they're going to be the next Donald Trump, they're wrong. So, are you saying that it is... Bigger than one man, or MAGA is Trump? I think that MAGA is bigger than one man. The president tapped into something that was already there, this frustration that people felt with the elite class, with us swamp creatures here in Washington, D.C. They were sick and tired of it, and he tapped into that and was able to run on this very populist momentum. I think that that will remain, and I think Republicans would be stupid to completely get rid of the populist movement that he has brought to us. We do, as you were talking about earlier, need to get back to a lot of our, you know, traditional core policies like lowering taxes, like, you know, making getting rid of all of this additional regulations, making things easier for the American people. Like I said, in North Carolina, that is clearly very popular. But North Carolina is a good example. Just to push back on what you said about centrists versus MAGA candidates. I mean, he Trump personally put Michael Watley into that seat. Or into that race. Same thing with Ken Paxton in Texas and Darlene Graham in South Carolina. So these MAGA candidates. Didn't do great. But no Republicans did great. I don't think you can judge MAGA candidates or the president or the power of MAGA as a whole within the party by looking at that, because Susan Collins, who is arguably one of the least MAGA Republicans out there, also lost. I wonder, Patrick, if you can, is there a difference between MAGA policies and populism? And I was thinking of an interview that Steve Bannon, one of the architects of the MAGA movement, gave just a few days ago, and he was arguing that in actual fact, Republican candidates didn't lean hard enough into MAGA, and that's why they lost. But at the same time, you have the policies of the MAGA president from the Iran war that led to affordability crisis, crackdown on migrants and Americans alike, that did lead to these Republicans' widespread losses. Yeah, I mean, look, the MAGA is, I agree, MAGA is not dead. MAGA is an important part of the base. We'll have presidential candidates running. We'll have probably a very healthy primary now. Had we done better in these elections, you'd probably just see Vance and Rubio and maybe a couple other people. But I think we're going to have a fairly robust bus primary. And it's important to note, you know, the party of Reagan was different from the party of George W. Bush. It was different from the party of Trump. And I think going forward, whoever these nominees are, they're going to have to walk a tightrope between MAGA and traditional Republicans. I think whoever the eventual nominee is, they'll have to go hand-in-hand with President Trump part of the time, and they will not want to alienate President Trump because he will be a very important endorsement for whoever that eventual nominee is. But whoever that nominee is, they will put their own kind of branding on MAGA. Maybe it'll be more of a MAGA 2.0, more of a compassionate MAGA. You heard President Trump talk about immigration and maybe doing something on, I don't want to go as far as amnesty, but doing something to help people who are here, which is a big 180 from what they were doing before. Right, right, right. Um, Leslie, will there be a robust primary, to Patrick's point, if you agree, because J.D. Vance isn't necessarily the automatic heir apparent? I mean, his, many are writing his political obituary now. He came out the day after the election and said that, well, we lost because of the war in Iran, and which could be seen as, you know, a criticism of his boss. Thank you. Is that too premature? I don't think it's fair to say that a robust primary means that people don't think he's good or that he has somehow, you know, had his obituary written about him. I think that politicians are eager and they want to be president of the United States. And I think that a lot of them feel that. You know, they would do a good job. So I don't necessarily think that's the case. I think that there will be a robust primary just because there are a lot of people that are interested in running that feel that they've got good ideas that can help Republicans in what is, bluntly, a time of need right now for us. All right. I've been told that the House, that Republicans are meeting right now in order to try to determine who their next leader is going to be. Of course, Mike Johnson of Louisiana has stepped down after serving as House Speaker. Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, as you mentioned, Leslie, are the two who are really in the running here. Here we go. Patrick, who would you like to see? Leading the party as it tries to figure out its identity and then claw back some seats in 2028. Look, both of those individuals would be fantastic. It's obvious up to the Republican caucus. The other thing I should note, though, is that the Republican National Committee will have an election in January to choose a leader. And so that is currently a contested race. So going forward, I think it will be important for, as I had mentioned previously on this show, In 2012 to 2013, Reince commissioned our study on, you know, kind of what happened in autopsy. So I think it will be important for some kind of independent body, maybe it's not the RNC, to really get everyone on the same page as to what's going on, because people over here are saying, oh, it was just the war, it was Israel. But I think it's a combination of factors. That's my personal opinion. But I think it will be important for Republicans to have some data-driven So going forward, they can fix the problems. Leslie, how do you see the differences between these two men? So I think the big difference is, if I'm a Republican in the Republican conference, the greatly diminished Republican conference, What do I think will help us the most? Is it somebody with experience, with years of leadership, with relationships and a deep donor base? Or is it somebody new, somebody with fresh ideas, somebody that hasn't been in leadership before that can come in and bring a new approach? And that's going to be the question that they're faced with. How about in the Senate? Because John Thune, who has been the majority leader, is expected to be the minority leader. Patrick, he's not really facing any competition. Does that speak to the confidence the Republicans have in him? Well, yeah, it's not surprising because the caucus has shrunk quite a bit. And Thune is a steady hand in the caucus. He supports retaining the filibuster, which now certainly President Trump will probably pivot on that in supporting retaining the filibuster. So I think Thune, would be the likely heir, the next, the continued leader there, just because he is someone who can keep everyone in check. And that's what you need now to hopefully grow again in four to six years. And also because so far, nobody else seems to want the job. Yeah, there's that too. And we have less than two months now left in this lame duck session, the majorities that the Republicans have in both chambers. Leslie, what do you think they will focus on? What would you like them to focus on? Well, what I hope that they focus on is actually getting some things done. The permitting bill, we need to get that across the finish line. We need to get the government funded. We've got to deal with the debt ceiling. We've got to get NDAA passed. I mean, these are big, huge pieces of legislation. And I'm also a supporter of the Ted Cruz sports bill that I would love to see the House take up as well. And get some movement on these things. If Republicans want to start trying to win back the voters that we just lost, it starts by getting things done right now. These last two months where they have power, they're in control. Show the voters that you can do something for them. NDA, of course, is the Pentagon's budget. And $1.5 trillion, a historic high, has been requested. I believe it's been passed by the House. But it's still being negotiated in the Senate. Of course, one of the things that will likely be taken up is this potential impeachment of Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense. Thomas Massie, outgoing Republican from Kentucky, he is the one who has introduced these articles of impeachment. Let's just say, Patrick, that it does pass the House with all Democrats and a handful of Republicans. And then it goes to the Senate. We have heard some criticism today from Senator Joni Ernst. And others who are willing to, Bill Cassidy, for example, willing to entertain a trial in the Senate. Is there a chance that in a Republican-controlled Congress for the next month and a half that we could see Pete Hegseth ousted by Republicans? There's a chance, but I think it's extremely unlikely. There's, you know, I think Remember, you have to have a two-thirds majority. And so that's for 67, as long as there's 100 people voting. Obviously, that number goes down if there's not 100 people voting. But I think it just makes the Republican Party look bad. I think they'd prefer that it were solved in a way in which either President Trump asks for his resignation or he resigns himself. And he's already goes out a hero because he's been impeached by the U.S. House, just like President Trump. And Mike Johnson has said that they have the votes to sideline the Massie effort. But what do you make of it? I mean, I hope they do. I think this is a giant vanity project for Massie. It's going to go absolutely nowhere in the Senate. You don't think there's a wider belief that he's... If there was a real belief that the Secretary of War had done something so egregious that he should be impeached, there should be hearings, there should be investigations, there should be reports that come out. We're talking about removing a sitting cabinet secretary. We treat this as some silly throwaway thing now. Back in the day, if this was ever considered, there was significant effort put behind it. Prove to us what it is you think he did that's impeachable and explain why. We didn't even know what was going to be in those articles of impeachment until Thomas Massie filed them yesterday. It's just, it's such an exercise in futility. You know what the American people want? They want Congress to get something done to help make things more affordable. This does not do it. And a lot of Democrats are saying the same thing, but Democrats could also take this up once they are in control in January. But, Patrick, where else do you think Democrats could overstep With perhaps a little bit of hubris because of the majorities that they're going to have that would give Republicans an opening as you look to 2028. Yeah, I mean, there's I mean, obviously there's impeachment and that's that's one of the things for both Hegseth and Trump. Yeah. And Hakeem Jeffries has to kind of rein that in to hold that back. Otherwise, I mean, because President Trump will just be sparring in the media constantly over this. And the American people really are sick and tired of hearing about impeachment. And they recognize it really doesn't do anything except fill up time. So you think that would be a favor to Republicans? Yeah, pretty much, yeah, absolutely. Leslie, how do you see it? Absolutely. That and seeing what happened last week as some type of a mandate for their very liberal wing of the party's policies, things like Medicare for All or abolishing ICE or any of these other crazy ideas that they've got out there. Instead, I mean, I feel like a broken record saying this. They can't pursue vengeance and vendettas. They need to come in and get things done, get things done to lower energy prices, get things done to lower grocery prices, housing prices and to lower, you know, interest rates on housing. There's all kinds of things that can be done in Congress to make the American people feel like the government officials that they elected, whose paychecks they pay, are actually doing something for them. Yeah, and I think Democrats are aware that they have to be very careful. Before I let it to you go, speed round. We still have Mississippi and Alaska Senate races out there. How are those going to go, Leslie? I think Democrats win Mississippi and Republicans win Alaska, but Alaska is the wild, wild west, and so who knows? Yeah, I mean, I agree with her, but I was up in Alaska in 2004 for Lisa Murkowski, and, I mean, these ballots are just flying in from everywhere, and then you obviously have this issue that the New York Times, of all places, reported. Thank you very much. You might as well flip a coin at this point. I mean, if you add up all of the Republican votes that are in right now for the three people identified as Republicans. The Republican would win, but I don't know who they rank their second choice of. All right, we've got to go. Leslie Shedd of Rising Communications and a Republican strategist, and Patrick Mara, chairman of the Washington, D.C. GOP. Thank you both very much. And that's all from the team here in Washington. You can catch This Is America every weekday from Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT. 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