No one is talking about him... (but they should)

The San Diego Padres just let go of a starting pitcher who had a .286 ERA in 34.2 innings last year. They had the option to take him on for $14 million in 2027, and they said no. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants just went 65-97, and everybody knows they need arms. So the question is, why is he not being connected to the San Francisco Giants? Now yes, I know he missed the majority of the 2026 campaign with an elbow injury, but when he was on the field, he had a .286 ERA. I think he could be exactly what this rotation needs, and I'm going to show you why. Let's start with what the Giants actually have. The 2026 staff finished with a 4-3-3 ERA, and a rotation arm like Pavetta could have filled one of those holes. That's a number you absolutely feel in your win-loss record, and it helps explain why this team lost 97 games. Of course, Robbie Ray and Tyler Milby were traded at the deadline, and now Logan Webb and Landon Roop are the only starters left in the rotation heading into 2027. Now before we get too deep into today's video, about two-thirds of you guys watching these videos are not actually subscribed to the channel. It's completely free, takes just a second of your time, and really helps us continue to bring the best Giants content and analysis on YouTube, so if you enjoy, make sure to hit those buttons. Now the staff also struck out 1,204 hitters in 1,430 innings. That's the volume this team has to replace, and not many starters in today's game can just hand you 180 innings. And reminder, Trevor McDonald, Carson Wisenhunt, Blade Tidwell will all miss the entirety of the 2027 season, and Hayden Birdsong will probably miss the first few months. In my opinion, Buster Posey needs at least one proven starter right behind Logan Webb and another to fill a ton of innings. And since the conclusion of the 2026 campaign, Buster Posey has been very clear that he knows he has to rebuild both the bullpen and the starting rotation. So on paper, next year's rotation starts with Logan Webb, then Landon Roop, then a ton of question marks. So, who is Buster Posey going to bring in, and for how much? Now, I know a lot of people were surprised when San Diego declined the option, but the reasoning is right there in his contract. He signed a four-year, $55 million deal in February 2025, and it had a clause. If he spent more than 130 straight days on the injured list, 2027 became a club option. Then, in 2026, his elbow did not look good. He hit the IL in mid-April, and didn't return until September 7th. Naturally, the clause kicked in, the option flipped to the Padres with no buyout, and they walked away from $32 million across 27 and 28. This wasn't the Padres saying that Nick Pavetta got worse, he was still a .286 ERA in the limited sample. It's more that the Padres are worried about investing $32 million into a guy that struggled with elbow injuries and now they lost their cheap option. So here's what the best case scenario looks like if you were to sign Nick Pavetta. In 2025, he had 31 starts, 181.2 innings, a .287 ERA, and 190 strikeouts. And compared to those 190 hitters that he struck out, He walked only 50 in 2025. That's a ratio you would gladly add to your rotation every day of the week. Since 2021, there are only 28 pitchers that have had an ERA of 2.9 or lower over at least 180 innings. Pavetta is one of them. And the contact numbers back up all of that. In 2026, in the limited sample, his hard hit rate allowed was 29.7%. That's in the 90th percentile of pitchers. And his expected batting average against was 256 in the 94th percentile. So again, it wasn't luck. He throws a four-seam fastball 54.6% of the time, roughly 94 miles an hour, and a curveball 22.5% of the time that sits right under 80 miles an hour. In 2026, even with the elbow, He struck out 42 hitters and walked 8 in 34.2 innings. His FIP, the number that strips out defense and luck and is strictly how good a pitcher was, was 2.21. That's a guy who can slide into any rotation and be a number 2 or number 3 starter when he's right. And even though the Giants haven't been projected to make the playoffs next season, he is a guy who has experience in big games. In the 2025 playoffs with the Padres, he made one start, five innings, a 3-6-0 ERA, and nine strikeouts. And in this year's playoffs, in two starts, 7.2 innings with a 3.52 ERA and eight strikeouts, right after coming back from the elbow injury. And if you go all the way back to 2021, in his first playoff run, he threw 13.2 innings over three games with a 2.63 ERA and 14 strikeouts. Sure, some of those samples are smaller, but clearly, this is a guy who doesn't shrink when the moment gets big. So, what does this actually look like if the Giants brought in Pavetta? Webb would still be the number one in this rotation, he's an established arm, and I do expect him to bounce back from the down year last year. Then, Pavetta would likely slide in as your number two starter, unless the Giants make a splash for a Freddy Peralta or Michael King. Then you slide in Lannan Rupp right behind him as the number three. That's a rotation with a clear top, instead of a bunch of question marks and a bunch of innings handed to prospects who aren't ready. And because I don't expect him to sign a long-term deal, he's not blocking any rotation spots from the Jackson Flores or the Ramon Marquezes of the world. And as we know, this San Francisco Giants organization is terrified of long-term pitcher deals, especially ones with Pavetta's age. A short-term deal, potentially with an opt-out, is exactly what Buster Posey and Zack Minassian would like to add to the back end of this rotation, and Pavetta fits that mold coming off of injuries. Think of it as what they tried to do with Tyler Mally this year, a guy coming off of injuries who was dominant when he was on the mound, this time you just hope it works out better. There is one more thing to bring up, and that's the fact that the Giants would not be the only suitors going after Nick Pavetta. According to MLB trade rumors, this decision from San Diego was expected, but a new deal between Pavetta and the Padres is still possible. Back on October 15th, Padres president AJ Preller said that they were hoping Nate wants to be part of that puzzle. So the Padres may still want him back, just not at $14 million. That means the Giants would be competing with a division rival and his old team. And just to remind you guys, this is one of the weakest free agent classes we've seen in recent memory, so Pavetta's going to get a lot of calls. Let's be honest though, it hasn't been all good for Pavetta. Let's talk about his floor. With Boston, his ERA was .404 in 2023 and .414 in 2024. He started 16 games in 23 and threw 142.2 innings, then in 24 he started 26 and threw 145.2 innings with 172 strikeouts. Since 2021, as a full-time starter, he has a .396 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. And he's not a guy that's going to blow away hitters, his fastball velocity sits in only the 43rd percentile of big league pitchers. But when you think about it, a .396 ERA is a very solid number 4, number 5 starter. Again, this is a rotation that had a .433 ERA in 2026, so if you added a .396 at the very worst, you absolutely take that. Best case, he's a 2 or 3, worst case, he's a 4 or 5. For a rotation riddled with injuries and only two guys locked into it heading into next year, you take that. So what are the risks? Let's talk about it. First, there's the obvious, the elbow. He lost most of his 2026 season to right elbow inflammation and any team signing him is going to be very cautious of that. Second, yes, his 2025 ERA was a .287, but his FIP was a .349. That says that he might have had some help. And third, at the end of the 2026 campaign, his strikeout stuff did take a step back. He was at 4.4 a game over his last 5 starts, against 6.7 before that. So again, I'm not calling Nick Pavetta an ace. I'm saying he's a very good 2 or 3 when he's healthy, and a decent 4 or 5 when he's not. And since he's coming off the injury, I don't expect this to be a long-term expensive deal, which of course isn't going to scare payroll. So let's break down the money. Our cap sheet has the Giants roughly $50 million under the 2027 tax line, but caveat, we have no idea what all of this is going to look like after the CBA lockout. The Giants have the room, so the question is how long. Ownership has said it wants one, maybe two starters on shorter terms, and Greg Johnson has admitted that he's comfortable going over the tax line in the right situation. He's 33 years old and he's coming off of an injury. That's not going to be a five to six year deal. That's the exact short term deal with high upside that this front office wants to give. In December of 2024, there were writers that predicted him to the Giants at three years, $45 million. Of course, he chose the division rival Padres instead, and now he's available again. So to recap everything, the Giants need innings, there's no debating that. The market is thin, ownership wants short-term deals for pitchers, and Pavetta has been a 2.87 ERA when he's healthy. That is clearly a fit. My take is simple, if his physicals come out good and he's healthy, sign Nick Pavetta on a short deal and let him be the 2 or 3 in the rotation if he's healthy. Sure, the risk is the elbow, but for a team that went 65-97, you're not expected to win anything next year anyways. Let me know in the comment section below, would you sign Nick Pavetta on a short-term deal with a lot of upside? I want to hear what you have to say down in the comment section below. And if you enjoyed, make sure to hit that subscribe button. Thank you so much for watching.