Complete Solar Activity Update July 12th 2025! Three M Flares!

James Kaufman, World News Report today, July 12, 2025. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. All right, ladies and gentlemen, we're going to do a complete space weather update this morning. We've had three M flares over the last 12 hours that we need to cover, and we're about to enter a geomagnetic disturbance and or storm. Let's start out by looking at the KP indexes. The Boulder index indicates that we've already seen six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance today. You know, we really haven't seen any plasma or solar winds that would cause that, but our shields are down currently, which is a horrible thing. Looking at our Fredericksburg index, it shows that we've seen really nothing occur. Headed over to our estimated Planetary Index, used solely by NOAA and NASA, upgraded for millions of dollars last year. Again, we see no geomagnetic disturbances or storms. Finally, moving to our College Index, by far the most sensitive KP Index. The KP Index, of course, shows us a combination of our plasma and solar winds striking Earth. Well they started the day out with six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance followed by a G2 geomagnetic storm that followed by a G1 geomagnetic storm so six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance followed by six hours of a geomagnetic storm. Now I don't see that in the data but I do see that solar winds are starting to pick up. Moving over to our ghost x-ray flux, we see that indeed three M-class solar flares have gone off over the last six hours or so. We started with an M1.4-class solar flare that peaked around 340 UTC time. That was followed by an M2.32 solar flare that has not been assigned to any sunspot group. The first M-Flare was assigned to a simple sunspot that was just named AR4140. AR-413 AR4139 is the complex or more complex sunspot, but none of these solar flares have been assigned to that sunspot group. The last solar flare we see is the M1.6 class solar flare. It peaked around 1240. And that was also from a newly named simple sunspot AR4140. Now the largest M class solar flare of the day again, the M2.32, was not assigned to a sunspot group. Again, making me think it was a filament eruption. Now we do have LASCO 2 and 3 over this entire time period. And I don't believe any coronal mass ejections. were created or lifted off the sun for these sunspots and or filament eruptions. All right taking a quick look that M2.32 is the largest solar flare over the last 72 hours. That occurred in between the M1.4 solar flare that peaked at 4.2 and the M1.6 solar flare that peaked at 12.10 knots. 1240 as that indicated so in between those two we had the M2.32 and my guess is it was a filament eruption because it has not been assigned to a sunspot group. Taking a look at the M-class solar flares that were assigned to a sunspot well that's going to be as we indicated AR-4140, a simple sunspot that was just named. Now AR4139 here is a simple sunspot. It is no longer a simple sunspot and it was not yesterday. Here on the list they have it in green which well means it's a simple sunspot. We also see AR4138 coming in the mix with some very small sea flares. And that was a very small sea flare from AR-4139 as well. Currently, we have only a 5% chance of having an X-class solar flare, a 55% chance of having an M-class solar flare. That ship has sailed. And we are maintaining a sea baseline currently of a C-2.74 baseline. So we can, well, assume that we will have a sea flare today. All right, taking a look at HMI intensigram, you see we have a total of six earth-facing sunspots on our solar disk. One of them is more complex, beta gamma here, 4136, not a delta class sunspot yet, but working its way there. All the activity that we've seen thus far today appears to have come from 4140. If the reports we've been reviewing are correct, it's also moved further into the middle of the sun, but it's not yet earth facing. And as I indicated, I didn't see any biomass ejections lifted off the sun from either of the solar flares associated with AR4140. Now, the picture we just saw was taken last night, central time around 7 p.m. This was taken at 7 a.m. this morning Central Time, and you can see that all the sunspot groups have moved their way further towards the center of our solar disk. Taking a look at NOAA's KP Index Breakdown, July 12th, 13th, and 14th, 2025. Ladies and gentlemen, I do not understand why this has not been updated. We're expecting strong solar winds and a geomagnetic disturbance and or storm today into tomorrow. They had a G1 geomagnetic storm down here for tomorrow, but I believe that that's actually going to start at some point today and last longer than three hours. That's quite a large cold hole and we'll take a look at it in just a second. This does not look like it's been updated. Over two GOES-19 solar ultraviolet imager, 195 angstroms. We can see that kernel hole directly Earth-facing has been for 48 hours. We expect an uptick in solar winds because of that, and I expect to see them later on this afternoon. Actually, I already see them starting to move up. We're expecting solar winds of around 650 kilometers per second. And a long duration solar disturbance and or storm based on how large the coronal hole is. We also have a dark filament playing around over here, coming around the limb. And we can see a lot of the sunspot groups giving us heck. This is the last inflare. You've seen it right there. Does not look like much. Again, I said that there was no coronal mass ejection lifted, and it was a M1.6 solar flare. We don't know where the M2.32 solar flare came from, at least with the data we have thus far. So, 4139, 4140, giving us all the trouble of the day. Taking a look at Lasko C3, trying to find out if there was a coronal mass ejection lifted from any of these M flares. The 3 o'clock M flare, a no-go. It looks like right as the M2.32 solar flare went off, they've erased most of the time associated right there. You can see it go from 954 to 1030 and then to 1106. It does, in fact. look right here look like a coronal mass ejection did in fact lift off the solar surface and the last one should be around 12 and i don't see anything happening during that time period but the m 2.3 solar flare looks like it in fact did lift off and try to remove some of the information there but you can clearly see the coronal mass ejection leaving the sun during that time period All right, taking a look at Space Weather Prediction Center, the newly updated Space Weather Prediction Center that NOAA uses. We can look at today, the 12th. Looks like plasma starts the day out at about five centimeters cubed and moves down to about two centimeters cubed. And we see just the opposite. The solar winds starting the day out at around 4.50. kilometers per second and moving up over 600 maybe 625 kilometers per second by the end of the day and into tomorrow. That would be the solar winds created by the coronal hole that we're looking for. We shouldn't be looking for any plasma uptick. We should be looking for solar winds based on the source, a coronal hole, not a solar flare and not a filament eruption. Taking a look at our D-Region Affliction Prediction Center, taking a look at the X-rays hitting Earth, this is the M2.32 solar flare. Looks like it peaked at around 835, which is about what we suspected. We said 9 o'clock, but we got it pretty close. And that peaked, looks like, over the Middle East, parts of Africa, and India. And Western Europe and Russia, or the Soviet Union. And we should see one more M flare here. That's going to happen right after 12 UTC time, as we discussed. That pops off over Western Europe and Africa. We shouldn't see any more M flares pop off. There's a stronger C flare there, and that brings us up to date there. So we do have good timing on the M2.32 flare. We know that it happened around 8.30. I did want to quickly put things together for you guys. The D region for our atmosphere is the very lowest region, the closest one to the planet itself. We have an F and an E region, actually F1. And F2 and E1 and E2. But it looks like most of those shields are pretty much down currently. All right, taking a look at the back side of our sun, it looks fairly quiet. We have three small sunspot groups. We have 001, 002, and 003. I think we're going to see a lot more pop up very quickly based on what we talked about. The positions of the planets. I think the next six months is going to be very, very busy with our sun. We'll see a solar uptick and a volcanic uptick here on planet Earth. All right, taking a look at the SCOVR real-time solar wind satellite here. We can see our shields are down. We also see some anomalies here of plasma up and above. 10 centimeters cubed the space weather threshold and that happened several times throughout the day although we shouldn't be seeing any plasma. We expected per the space weather prediction center to have plasma start out at about five and end up in about two. It does look like where it's headed but we do have three or four anomalies that actually break The official space weather barrier there of 10 centimeters cubed. Now, they completely nailed the solar winds starting at 450. The question is, are they going to go up to 600 plus? They're up to 552 and climbing currently. Plasma has gone down to where they said it might. I can't explain why we have... four or five anomalies i.e plasma over 10 centimeters cubed again our shields are down temperatures are fairly normal i think this is the very beginning of our solar disturbance and i.e solar storm of course caused by the coal hole that is earth-facing and will be for some time Headed over to ACE, Real-Time Space Weather Satellite, to kind of check our work. Our shields are down correct. We had those same anomalies at that same time, so it really occurred. Now, coronal holes aren't supposed to produce any type of plasma. That comes from filament eruptions or solar flares. So that's a question mark for me. You can see the plasma did go from much higher than they thought it would start. They said 5, it looks like it started at about 9, went up to about 13.5, and it is down into the 2s or 3s where they said it might go. As far as solar winds, well, it's done exactly what the Space Weather Prediction Center said it might. Started out at 450, right now it's at 550, and it looks like this is the start. You can see it heating up here down on the temperature gauge. And you can see the solar winds moving up. The start of the geomagnetic disturbance and storm that we do expect and was forecast from the coronal hole that's now earth-facing and will be for another day or two. STO HMI Magnetogram. I pulled it up because both 4139 and 4140 are reverse polarity sunspots. Now they say that that should be less than one percent of all sunspots, but that's not what we've been seeing. Anything in the northern hemisphere should be positive, or white over black, like you see it within these two sunspot groups. Here we see negative over positive in the northern hemisphere, 4139, and down in the southern hemisphere we should always see black over white, and here we see white over black, AR4140. Now this could be the polar flip or a symptom of the sun's polar flip that happens every 11 to 11 1⁄2 years. So 284 angstroms, we can see how large that quail hole really is. And we can see all the sunspots, all six of them that are earth-facing. We can also see that dark filament playing around the limb there. This is, of course, 4139 and 4140, and this was taken at 706 this morning, so it's fairly recent, but these sunspots have moved, well, even more so towards the center of the sun. Taking a look at Euphoria from the ESA, it looks like they've taken the month off. You can see that nothing's been done with this for well over a week here. They still have heavy plasma hitting on the third from the C5.55 solar flare that never materialized. And if we move into the 12th, heck, I don't even think this takes us to the 12th. They've just shut the whole thing down. Unbelievable. What do they know that we don't know? And finally, over to the planets today, we can see Earth. Lining up with the Moon behind us, and Mercury and the Sun in front of us, Jupiter opposing, which should start the activities. We also see a geomagnetic connection, i.e. the pink around Pluto to Earth, then a geomagnetic connection to Neptune and Earth. As we move further around, we'll pick up a geomagnetic connection to Saturn as well, and Mercury as well. It's going to get ugly, especially as the moon comes into this position here, which is going to be in or around, it looks like the 24th or 25th. We're going to have a lot of lineups and a lot of geomagnetic connections, Mercury, Saturn, Neptune, Pluto, and well, I suspect by this time period, which is about two weeks away, we'll be seeing a lot of solar flares. Take this as far as it will go, and y'all can see that this is going to get ugly, especially as Earth moves in between Neptune, Saturn, and the Sun, and the Moon lines up on one side or the other of Earth. With that said, God bless you and yours. Please share our video. 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