'It sends chills down my spine': Christiane Amanpour on chances of a US nuclear strike against Iran

6 p.m. now, tonight with Andrew Marr. Good evening. At some point, I think only a few years ago, during the age of Trump, we crossed a line, an invisible border which changes everything. Before then, American politics was American politics and British politics was ours. Never, of course, quite sealed off, but distinct and separate. And really, that's not true any longer. The decisions taken in the White House affect ordinary British voters in terms of their shopping bills and their energy bills and inflation, at least as much as decisions taken in Whitehall. Our real security is shaped as much by the Pentagon as the Ministry of Defence. Our attitudes to one another as communities are driven and shaped, and I think poisoned, by online players across the United States using platforms built in California. In short, we are all cadet Americans now. And that's why the midterm elections in the U.S. with voting taking place today are so much more consequential than anything happening this week in the House of Commons. There's been a general assumption that Donald Trump is about to be humiliated by the Democrats, losing control not just of the House of Representatives, but the Senate as well. Maybe so. Could well happen. But on the back of that, there's been a gleeful liberal assumption that this is, without doubt, a good thing. Really? If the Democrats can bind the president's hands in domestic policy, the obvious thing for him to do is to spend even more of his time on foreign policy, that is, us, Russia, Iran. And if American voters have deeply embarrassed him at the ballot box and he's faced a repeated loss of face in state after state, What kind of mood do you think this particular and very unusual man will be in as he decides what to do with the next two years and the world? In a phrase I heard recently, less lame duck than angry duck. Yesterday, we had to grapple with the apparently semi-serious proposition he might use nuclear weapons on Iran. Anyway, it all feels just a tiny bit scary, and whatever happens, by tomorrow morning, I won't jump out of bed with a smug smirk on my face. And on this big, big day, I'm joined by one of the most famous international journalists in the world, Christiane Amanpour of CNN, and later by the former boss of MI6, Sir John Sawyers. Before that, our man at the United Nations. Welcome to you both. Christiane, let me start by asking you your opinion. If things go badly today for Donald Trump domestically, lame duck or angry duck? Both, probably. And it's not unusual in midterms for it to go against the incumbent party. And as you laid out very coherently in that package, there's a lot that's gone wrong for the average American. It's not the Democrats that you say will humiliate Trump. It's the people of the United States who will have their first opportunity for a referendum on Trump policies, and not just Democrats and liberals. But the issue here is that it is Republicans, Republicans, MAGA people, people who voted for him in 2024. who were disappointed and angered by his what they call breaking promises, for instance, the war, for instance, his stewardship of the economy. Remember, he got the highest poll ratings of stewardship of the economy. That is not the case right now. They are angry at the rising prices in a war of choice on Iran, for instance. So all of that is about the people of the United States and young white men. If you look at if you look at all these reportings going on right now, all these different constituents. constituencies, according to reports, and I am always weary and weary of polls, you know, are turning against him. It's his side rather than the other side, so to speak. It's the independents. Sure. So, Christiane, let's put all the health warnings around this. We don't know the result yet. We could be surprised. But if, if the Democrats take both houses of Congress, explain to people listening how much that cramps his style. Well, I think it cramps his style a lot. Look, he'll still be president of the United States and there'll still be a lot he can do with executive orders domestically, potentially even overseas, but he does have a wide leeway when it comes to foreign policy as well. Now, when it comes to war, he's meant to take it to Congress. He didn't this time, the war against Iran. So that is where Congress can act and they want to act, not necessarily to impeach Trump. They don't want to go down that route again, if you believe what they're saying now. But they do want to go for some of his most outlandish cabinet officials, at least in their view, like Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense. They're angry about the amount of money that has been spent on the Iran war, of no strategy, of the fact that it keeps on and on and it's raising prices. Do you know? According to the Wall Street Journal, some 274 U.S. bases and positions in the Gulf region and in Jordan and other places have been either damaged or destroyed. You know, nearly two dozen Americans have been killed in this war and there's still no end in sight. Now, Trump, who did bomb Keshma Island overnight. talk about timing just ahead of the midterms, is still saying that we want to negotiate a settlement. So we will see what happens. We know that the majority of his own cabinet does not believe in this war, does not want to restart this war. But Trump is Trump. And he also has Netanyahu pushing him in that direction. Of course, yes, yes. And if he is humiliated overnight in these results. What do you think that does to his posture in the rest of the world? Does it moderate him or does it make him even more wild? Do you know, it's hard to tell. Honestly, I'm done predicting what Trump will do. Everything he does is so outside the boundaries of norms that we just have to keep watching. I will say this, though. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut who recently just suffered a stroke. He is actually on the mend. But he said shortly before his stroke that he and other senators had been briefed on the administration's. Possible plans for a massive resumption of striking Iran. And he labeled this insane. He then said it was insanity. He then said. That if it did actually transpire in the way they'd been briefed, it would put the United States outside the norm of adhering to the international law and order. Well, Christiane, that takes me directly to what I wanted to ask you next, because there's been a report from Tucker Carlson, and it's only Tucker Carlson, that this could involve nuclear weapons, a nuclear strike against the mountain. under which the Iranian nuclear project is buried. But there have been other murmurs coming out of the regime suggesting that that is indeed something that he has been talking about. What's your impression of what's going on there? I have to say that it sent chills down my spine for sure when I read it, when I saw that Tucker got, at last sighting, 35 million views on that claim. I haven't seen it anywhere. I've asked a lot. I've talked to people who cover the national security. I've talked to Israeli commentators and military experts and things like that. At the moment, they're not saying it's on any table. And I think Trump has positioned himself as anti-nuke, you know, in the past. I just don't know. I mean, certainly Netanyahu is pushing him. I don't know whether he would push him towards dropping a battlefield nuke. It would put the entire world in massive jeopardy, as you know, because Putin has dangled that, hasn't he, throughout the entire Ukraine war. And everybody has said. Unacceptable, impossible. No, you will suffer huge consequences. But then there's the Koreans, then there's India, Pakistan, then there's all these different constituencies with nuclear weapons who would then say, hey, we're going to solve our problems like that. I cannot believe this would happen. It just lowers the barrier of the unthinkable, if I can put it that way. Suddenly, what was unacceptable would never happen becomes talkable about, as we are just now, of course. Yeah, again, I just don't think it's going to happen. I think it would be a massive, obviously a miscalculation, a massive loss of life in that region and a massive, you know, it destroys the concept of deterrence, in my opinion. I'm really interested to know what Sir John Sawyers will say about this when you talk to him. But I think certainly the Democrats, I talked to John Kerry about what Democrats should do if they do win. Up the defense of Ukraine, up the isolation of Putin, which Trump is doing the opposite. Get back into the climate change and climate mitigation business. Negotiate with China over AI. There are huge issues that have to be tackled if we're going to keep the world safe. And we'll see. You know, Trump, you mentioned it's very extraordinary and very interesting. Trump is reading the room on Israel, right? He has said that they will no longer be giving this $4 billion in aid to Israel. I don't know whether that means... cutting off the similar aid they give to Egypt, but I don't know, we'll see. But he's read the room. He's even called it basically because of Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan. I think it's fascinating. I think it's seriously interesting. I'm not sure what it's gonna mean, but it's really. important, this step that they've taken, because he's reading what the American people are saying about unconditional weapons suppliers to Israel. Christiane, you have an uncanny ability to see ahead. You mentioned Sir John Sawers, and I'm going to go to him now and ask him about the very thing that we were discussing. Thank you very much indeed. So let's get the view of the former head of the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, Sir John Sawers. Sir John, great to have Have you on the show? Can I pick up? With that slightly chilling outlandish thought that's been percolating out of the White House, out of Washington, we think that Trump has at least considered using a nuclear weapon in the Iran conflict. If he did, huge if, but if he did, what would be the effect on global security? I think, first of all, the first point to make is that both the Americans and the Iranians are trying to intimidate each other and trying to create the environment in which both sides actually want to go for a negotiated deal. And like Christiane, I think it's very unlikely that You get into the realm of the use of tactical nuclear weapons. I think we are in a difficult stage, a very sensitive stage on the on on nuclear weapons. Generally, we've had, as Christian says, Trump, President Putin in Russia, threatening to use them in the Ukraine war and to defend Kaliningrad. We see a lot of countries around the world who have sheltered under the American nuclear umbrella. Losing confidence in the reliability of that American assurance. And so I think we will see other countries, we could name a list of candidates. Thank Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, there are a lot of countries who might be interested you in having nuclear weapons if they feel they can't rely on the United States. So I think that would be a major concern very and it would be given more impetus if the Americans, and I don't think they will do this, if the Americans foolishly go ahead much. and use a nuclear weapon on the Iran war. Well, let's all keep our fingers and toes crossed that you're absolutely right about that, as Christiane was as well. Can I ask you, John, about another thing that's going on at the moment, caused a lot of attention, which is a series of strange cyber attacks on food supplies in Western Europe. And then we've had all these mysterious bomb warnings, grounding flights, no bombs found, but nonetheless, deep disruption to daily life going on. We'll talk about that later in the show. So, but do you think we are in the first phase of the so-called... Grey zone war by Russia against us. Are we in new territory here? Well, first of all, we don't know who switched off these freezers and turned them into defrost mode. It's not the sort of commercial hacker who would want to do this for money Because there's no ransom attached to this. It's an entirely destructive act. The first assumption must be it was by someone who wanted to undermine confidence in Europe, and that may well be the Russians. You say, are we in the foothills of the hybrid war? I think we're well into the foothills of a hybrid conflict with Russia. The attack on Leipzig Airport last month wasn't an act of war, but it was a warlike act. It was a very definite threat. We saw in this country, we saw the attack on Keir Starmer's home, the then prime minister's personal home, who was certainly responsible, sponsored in some way by the Russians. Thank you. And I think the Russians, because they're making so little progress in Ukraine on the front line, they are looking to take their attacks to civilians in Ukraine and to those countries which have been supporting Ukraine from outside. And so they're trying to destabilize. Western governments, they're trying to promote people like the AFD in Germany and Marine Le Pen in France so that those who sympathize with Russia and have perhaps in the past enjoyed Russian support, they flourish and they cramp the room for policy by the mainstream parties. So, John, let me circle back to the way I started the show, which is the possibility and it's just a possibility right now that Donald Trump has a really, really hellish electoral night in the midterms, losing both the Senate and the House and emerges kind of angry and humiliated. How concerned are you about how he would behave in those new circumstances? Well, just first on the outcome, like Christiane, I'm not going to predict the outcome, but definitely Democrat hopes have been raised of winning both houses. I think everyone accepts they're going to win the House of Representatives. Frankly, if they don't win the Senate now, it will feel like a victory for the Republicans. An awful lot has to fall into place. For the Democrats, for them to win a majority, and they're making a hash of things in both Michigan and in Alaska, which is playing into the hands of the Republicans. So they've got it's quite a battle and a lot has to go right for the Democrats for them to get a majority. Now, if they do get a majority, it does strengthen the hands of of Congress. You haven't mentioned the Ukraine war, but there's a majority already in in Congress for tighter sanctions against Russia, which... Trump himself is personally trying to to ease. We may well get the we may well get a veto proof majority in the in the Senate for tougher sanctions. And that would that would cramp. Trump's style and his capacity, his room for maneuver to negotiate with his friend Vladimir Putin. So I think there are areas where you will see Trump restricted. I also think the Iran war has been a sort of salutary experience for Trump, that you can't always get your way when you use military force. Venezuela is one thing. Iran is something completely different. Yeah, I think. What we might see is more aggressive action against weaker nations, and Cuba must be the first in line for the attentions of Trump in the second half of this term. But I think he'll be careful about going too hard against countries that can stand up for themselves. Very, very wise advice. It's going to be a long, long night for anyone interested in politics. Sir John Sawers, thank you very much indeed for talking to me. And we're going to stick with this topic.