Some key states remain toss-ups as U.S. voters hit the polls

We are keeping a close eye on key races in states so far deemed a toss up. Katie Simpson is in Texas, where the Republican stronghold could dramatically flip blue. Megan Fitzpatrick is in Michigan, where the economic fallout of Trump's trade war looms as a large issue over voters. And Aaron Collins is in Washington with the potential change in the power balance from today's vote. And we begin with the CBC's Katie Simpson. She is following the Senate race live in Texas. It's shaping up to be one of the biggest battlegrounds. Republicans have not lost a contest for the upper chamber there since 1988. But polling suggests there's a real chance that could change today. CBC's Katie Simpson is live outside a polling station in Austin. Katie, tell us about what you've seen in Texas over the past few days. Well, we've been speaking with Democrats. We are set up in Austin, which is a very progressive city in Texas. So a lot of the voters we've been speaking to are very hopeful in this moment. However, that hope is often tempered by reality. As you mentioned, Andrew, a Democrat hasn't won the race for Senate since 1988. I was five, and now I have gray hair and crunchy knees. So that was a very... Very long time ago, but there is a lot of momentum around the campaign of James Tallarico. He's a moderate Democrat who's gained national attention for being able to sort of put up some very strong polling numbers again, if the polls are to be believed. A lot of the voters we've been speaking with, we're going to an event for James Tallarico just outside his official event tonight, because that we think will be a very interesting place to cover the watch party results. But he's been able to build momentum slowly and consistently. consistently, even though Texas is a Republican stronghold, he's up against Ken Paxton, who was a Trump endorse. He's the state's attorney general, but he comes with a lot of baggage. He's been indicted, but he got a plea deal. He's been impeached, but was acquitted. It's it's there's a lot of sort of scandal around Ken Paxton. And still this this race is pretty close. So outside a polling station here in Austin, we've been chatting with Americans and voters here who are planning to cast their ballot today, either have or are planning. to today, just to get a sense of how people in Austin are feeling. The Senate is a really crucial part of American government and is supposed to be the senior governing body and the legislative check. And I think Tallarico and the Democrats, despite the Democrats being not the strongest party in the world, are going to be a check against Donald Trump and kind of some of the excesses he's done. I'm a immigrant. I was like, I'm an orphan from Mexico. So like, I had kind of hard here in America. So I don't really like seeing children growing up in detention centers and stuff like that. So I'm kind of like, that's like my big voting point. Now, one thing to keep in mind, as I've mentioned in our conversation here, Andrew, Austin is extremely progressive. In the 2024 presidential vote, nearly 70% of people in this county, the county where Austin is located, it voted for Kamala Harris. So it's not representative necessarily of the bigger, broader trend. But there are concerns that Republicans have because that perhaps Ken Paxton is a complicated candidate that some voters, some Republicans aren't necessarily supportive of, whether those Republicans stay home. There have also been some issues related to rural votes in America that, you know, some Republicans are upset about things like data center development. That's one thing that's a major issue in Texas and that has not gone well for Republicans as Democrats have tried to position themselves as putting guardrails around development. Republicans have been like business business. Business, business. That's the way it sort of played out in the campaigns here. So there is a moment right now where it appears this vote is a toss-up. Some polls are giving it to the Democrats heading into the final day of voting. But again, it's very, very close. And that certainly says something because this is a Republican stronghold. You know what's not a toss-up, Katie, is I have much more gray hair than you do. But I'll put that aside. The issues that are dominating the race in Texas are part of a national trend as well. Yeah. So it's those big key issues that, you know, Donald Trump has been trying to sort of galvanize American voters around. He talks about immigration. I know we just heard from a voter who doesn't like Donald Trump's immigration policy, but a lot of Republicans and a lot of conservatives, they do like what Donald Trump has done on immigration. There's also the concern about affordability. A lot of American voters are very frustrated with the price of gas, the price of fuel, what's gone on with the war in Iran, as well as tariffs, Those kinds of things. And so those issues here in Texas. are also playing out on a bigger, broader national scale. When we've been speaking with Democrats who've been volunteering and knocking on doors, or whether it's people going in to vote today, even though, you know, nationally, the projections in this moment, or the predictions in this moment, are that the Democrats might have a very strong night, people are nervous because they've gotten their hopes up before and been disappointed many times. It'll be absolutely fascinating to watch. Happy that you're there. The CBC's Katie Simpson, live in Austin, Texas. Now let's go to the CBC's Megan Fitzpatrick in Detroit. Megan, you've been speaking to voters there, key border state with Canada, obviously. What are you hearing? It's been a very busy polling station here, Andrew. It opened bright and early at 7 a.m. this morning. And yeah, a steady stream of voters coming through here. There's a lot of democracy going on behind me. There's a lot of things that people are voting for in the state today. A new governor, for example, and also representatives for the House of Representatives, state-level positions. But there is so much focus on the Senate race here in Michigan, which is seeing Democrat Democrat Abdul El-Sayed up against Republican Mike Rogers. And so we have been talking to voters about who they're supporting in that race and the others, why, what issues are important to them. And the common theme I keep hearing from voters is the economy and the cost of living. Repeatedly, people are bringing up how expensive it is for gas these days, for food, for rent, just life in general. And they're saying they want their elected officials to address those concerns. And a lot of them feel dissatisfied and they feel like their elected officials aren't caring about the struggles that people are going through right now. So we have talked to people about what's on their minds, and I want you to take a listen to what we've been hearing. I kind of want the Republican guy to win. I don't like the Democrat person. I don't like them. There's what they say out their mouth. It's not going with what I'm going through in my household. He just seems to care about the community. Out of all the politicians, that's the only one I've seen in my neighborhood, came even to my job, and I work at 5 o'clock in the morning, he even came shaking hands, just really seems like he's concerned, so we'll see. If not, then we'll vote him out. He's just very knowledgeable, and I just think he speaks for the people, and you know, the other choice, it was a no-brainer, there was no way I was going to let another Trump be on my ballot. And those voters, they're talking about their choices for that Senate race. Thank Quite a few voters saying to me, Andrew, that they want change in Washington. Some of them are saying they're going to give Abdul El-Sayed a chance. you There's the applause there that comes up every so often when someone who's never voted before. very Before. Cast their ballot. So everyone in here, cheers for them. But yeah, some voters telling me how important it is to vote today, much. saying there's a lot at stake. People understand that the control of the Senate could be at stake depending on what happens here in Michigan. And some voters telling me, regardless of who people vote for today, they just want people to get out there and vote. Key to our democracies is people voting for the first time or more. Megan, let's talk about Michigan more broadly. Why is that state being watched so closely today? Well, it's being watched so closely because, again, Michigan's a classic swing state. They sometimes vote Democrat, sometimes vote Republican, then vote Democrat again. It's a swing state. And in this Senate election in particular, it's held by the Democrats. The incumbent decided not to run again, so it became an open seat. Now, the Democrats need to hold on to it in order to try and flip control of this Senate. So they need to hold every seat that they have, then... Flip four more. So if El-Sayed can't win this for the Democrats, that makes the math more difficult for them to win control of the Senate. It's been a very fierce competition between the two candidates, at times pretty nasty. A lot of. Personal attacks launched against each other. President Donald Trump has weighed in a lot on this race, calling El-Sayed a jihadist. And El-Sayed has responded that the Republicans are trying to make an issue out of his faith, he is Muslim, to try and distract from the high cost of living in Michigan right now. Democrats have partly been trying to pin the blame for the high cost of living on the U.S. tariffs on Canada. That is an issue that's been playing out here in the race. That's another reason why we're paying attention to it. Also, the issue of U.S. support for Israel has been an issue in this race, a controversial issue. There are some Jewish Democrats who are not comfortable putting their support behind El-Sayed because of his views. He's called for an end to U.S. aid to Israel, for example. And Mike Rogers has been reaching out to those Jewish Democrat voters, urging them to vote for him this time. He was speaking this morning about the coalition of voters he's been trying to build throughout this campaign. Here's what he said. I just think we've reached a whole different coalition set that we've never quite seen here in the state of Michigan, from Democrats in the city of Detroit and Pontiac and Flint, Jewish Democrats all across the southeast, Chaldeans, Albanians, Indian Hindus. We've had such great conversations, such great relations about how we go together forward for our great state of Michigan. Now, again, the tariffs and trade issue, again, playing out here. Andrea, as we know, the auto industry is huge in this state. It has been impacted by the trade war. El-Sayed and Rogers have both called for an end to the U.S. tariffs on Canada. Rogers has had to walk a pretty tricky line on that front, not criticizing Trump too heavily for imposing them in the first place. So we've seen them talking about Canada on the campaign trail. It's come up a bit with some voters that I've been talking to today with one voter Placing the blame for the high cost of living on the tariffs. So we'll see what voters decide. Again, pretty busy polling station here. A lot of voting going on. And just as we're talking to you, Megan, we just want to let our viewers know that they're looking at live images of Abdullah Al-Sayed in Ann Arbor, Michigan, getting some selfies and that kind of thing, talking to supporters there. But thank you. That is the CBC's Megan Fitzpatrick live in Detroit. With a number of states being called a toss-up at this point, multiple polls are showing dramatically different ways the vote could swing, including high-stakes Senate races that could break Republican strongholds. The CBC's Erin Collins is here to walk us through it from Washington. So, Erin, what are some of those scenarios for Democrats and Republicans? Some of them are just wild in terms of it would be something that hasn't happened in many decades or almost a century. Yeah, we'll get to some of those wilder scenarios in a second, Andrew, but let's talk about the numbers first. We've done a great job, you've done a great job all day of sort of laying out the state of play here, but let's go through it one more time. For the Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, they're going to need to win three or more seats, right? That is generally deemed or thought by many pollsters to be a likely outcome today. The other potential is for the Senate to change hands. That's going to involve Democrats holding all the seats they have and gaining four seats in Republican-held areas. So let's talk a little bit about polls, more about numbers. We know polls have in the past underrepresented how many Republicans, especially MAGA Republicans, are going to show up at the polls. on Election Day and how many of them like to answer polls in the first place. So that is something that is going to weigh heavily on the results today. Let's have a quick listen to what's driving those voters to get to the polls. It's definitely a pain to go to the pump. I know my girlfriend drives an hour every day for work and it's a significant portion of her paycheck. The price of everything that we deal with from chainsaws to small equipment to replacement parts, everything are harder to find and way more expensive. We'd like things to get back to normal if we could ever figure out what normal is. So more than 55 million Americans have already cast their ballot. So the real key today is how many people are going to show up today if, in fact, those people are going to potentially lean more towards the Republicans. We talked about some of those wilder scenarios. Let's talk about a couple things that could happen. We could see the Democrats win control of the House. And come close to winning control of the Senate. And that's going to involve them winning in places like Texas, Iowa, Kansas. A less likely scenario or a harder scenario, a harder mountain for the Democrats to climb, is an outright win in the Senate. So pulling off a win in all of Congress. That will again involve them winning in places like Maine and Alaska as well. A tough task. And Aaron, we've looked at Ohio and Michigan races. What other states are you watching? Yeah, I think the Midwest is very interesting, right? We talk about Kansas, we talk about Iowa, Kansas. I think it's 1932, the last time they elected a Democratic senator. That's huge. We've got Texas, where you were talking to Katie. It's been since 1988. I was in middle school the last time a Democrat was elected there. Those are interesting, but I think the ones I'm most watching are Maine, where Susan Collins is trying to become re-elected. She's down in the polls, if you believe those, but she has a history of flipping that around. And Alaska. Alaska, very interesting race. Of course, we have that big scandal. Where the Democrats are alleged to have put someone on the ballot with the same name as the Republican candidate, that candidate, Dan Sullivan, urging voters to get out to the polls today. We are not going to let the cheating stand. So to all Alaskans, if you're watching, do not let the cheating stand. The scheme is working. The decoy guy who evidently fled to the Bahamas or something is on the ballot. He's not campaigning. The scheme is working. Do not, Alaskans, do not let the scheme work. So a quick note on the races in both of those states, both Alaska and Maine are very tight and they have ranked ballots, which means that if these races are close, which many expect they will be, it could be days or even weeks until we get a final result. Aaron, thank you. CBC's Aaron Collins in Washington.