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The speaker predicts the 2026 Goodreads Choice Awards nominees for the Mystery & Thriller category. By blending statistical data with \"vibes\" and instinct, they analyze author popularity, reader demographics, and genre trends to forecast the top 20 nominees and the ultimate winner, while critiquing the lack of diversity and the dominance of thrillers over traditional mysteries.
Hello everyone, I feel sick to my stomach.
Hello friends, how are you all doing? Today
we're going to be trying to predict
the Goodreads Choice Awards nominees for the Mystery Thriller
Category 2026 baby.
If you don't know, I read every single year the top 10 in the Mystery
Thriller Category in the Goodreads Choice Awards
and I predict now the top 20 and the pressure I'm
feeling right now is immense.
Like this is my Christmas, this is my Super Bowl, this is so
Serious to me. This is this is the most important day of the year
and oh no, I was meant to film this video yesterday
I can't take the pressure. I don't know.
I just don't think this is like great for me. I don't want to do it
I want to go home like I can't take the pressure of it.
Don't you think any job interview?
Last year, I did the best I've ever done
in terms of predicting
and I got 15 out of 20 correct.
And like, that's incredible.
So proud of me.
Woo-hoo.
So proud of Megan.
But like, also, my God,
it's like coming up with the second album
after a hit with the debut.
Like, I don't...
I don't know if I can reach that again.
Two reasons.
Like, I just think we can't keep going up, you know?
Like, 15 out of 20 is a lot to predict, right?
And I also this year have been less tuned
in to new releases intentionally
because I'm really trying to get my TBR down
and if I'm really tuned in to new releases, I want to buy them.
So I feel very unaware of a lot of books that are probably out there
that I don't even know how I'm going to find them.
Like books that should be on my radar for this.
I am so brain turned off energy.
But when I do these videos where I predict the top 20
and the top 10 and what the winner is going to be,
I personally do it off vibes.
There's so many great people out there
who kind of do the math and work out
based on like ratings and average rating,
what it's like to be nominated.
I go off my instinct and it's serving me right so far.
I mean, last year I also predicted the winner.
with Not Quite Dead Yet by Holly Jackson
which let me tell you no one else saw that coming and i did
i did that's cute you're so clever
You're so clever. Because there's more than just
the numbers to how this works out. For example,
Holly Jackers' audience, predominantly YA reading audience,
who is a different audience
than what some of the other mystery thriller authors are,
so she's likely to get more of a vote
because there's a lot of authors on here
that share audiences and you can only vote for one
book. This is what I'm talking about guys.
There's a vibe to this, there's an instinct to this.
So shall we just begin?
I still say we're gonna film for as long as it takes.
We're gonna be here for as long as it
takes. I actually feel like I could probably name
a really strong top 10 right now. I think it's
what's outside of the top 10 I'm gonna struggle with.
But let's get into it. I'm gonna start with
something that will make me happy, okay?
I'm gonna start with good vibes because then we need to get
into some bad vibes to start us off.
But the first book I'm putting in is We Chase Shadows by Richard
Richard Altman, my man!
He wants to marry me.
I'm certain this is gonna be nominated
and I'm certain this is gonna make top 10.
He's always nominated now and he always makes,
I would say like he's always about third or fourth.
I do think this could do less well
than some of his previous releases
because it's a less popular series
than The Thursday Murder Club.
And We Solve Murders when that was nominated
was the first book in the series.
So I do think this would maybe be like five, six, seven,
maybe in the top 10.
But I think, I mean, if Richard is not nominated
and is not top 10, we riot.
We riot.
I don't know what else to tell you.
As an example, let's just get Goodreads up.
I'm gonna show you, when you look at this,
just based on the numbers,
you may think compared to some of the other things
we're gonna see, it wouldn't be nominated
because it won't have a ton of ratings
because it only just came out in September.
Whereas there's other books we're gonna be looking at.
I mean, it's got 22,000,
but there's books we're gonna be looking at
that might have like a million.
That might be a bit, maybe not for free,
that might not be dramatic,
but there's gonna be some in the hundreds of thousands.
This is obviously far below that,
but it only just came out in September.
There's books here.
that we're gonna see that have been out since January.
And it's not just the ratings.
They need to get, we'll talk about this as we go on,
but like different types of mystery thrillers.
They like to represent different types.
And Richard is just a great representation
of your classic mystery.
So I can't entertain a world where he isn't nominated.
I can't even begin to imagine that.
I'm putting him first, I'm manifesting.
Richard will be there.
I need to have that to look forward to reading.
in the top 10 because as we should get on to, let's tackle Frida.
I want to get it out of the
way. Evil, evil. Now I think she's had three releases this year
and last year when I was
predicting I was like they're not gonna put three releases up.
They're not gonna nominate three
books. They did. Oh god they did. It can't get any worse. It can.
I could, I actually forgot that,
I was watching back my vlog from last year
and I could not believe they nominated three Fridas.
I just couldn't believe my eyes,
I couldn't believe they'd done that.
Now, I do think one of her releases this year,
The Witch, is kind of a bit fantastical, so I don't think, oh thriller.
Okay, it's still a thriller,
but there's witchcraft going on.
I was gonna say, this can't be nominated.
See, this only just came out a couple weeks ago.
It's got 167,000 ratings.
So her books have been released this year
are Dear Debbie, 3.9 average rating, 680,000 ratings.
The Divorce, Divorce Babe,
Divorce 3.85 with 388,000 ratings and The Witch 4.04 with 167.
That's what happened.
Ugh!
The three were nominated last year
and I could kind of see them doing it again now. I was going
to be like they're not going to nominate The Witch but they can.
Actually I wouldn't be surprised if
they nominated this for something a little bit spooky,
a little bit of a different vibe. Oh god.
Oh my God.
Here's the thing though, Miss Frieda has
been making it publicly known. She's been letting the
good people of Goodreads know.
She doesn't want multiple books nominated, she's been complaining.
Everyone out here moaning and groaning about
having three books nominated because then
her vote is split and she doesn't win, and Gurley wants to win.
Can you believe, there's so many, it makes me angry,
we don't need to spend long on this,
but like, it makes me fuming, I'm fuming.
There's authors out there who would kill
to be nominated in the Goodreads Choice Awards.
The amount of exposure that would bring to their book,
and she's like, I got three nominated.
Piss me off.
Okay, what are we going to do with Frida?
What do we get, last year I was like surely
they won't nominate three and I was wrong.
This one, I know how it ends firstly
because I had to research it for a video so I really
don't want to read it. I don't want to read any Frida,
no. I really am going to try,
I say this every year,
I'm going to try and go in with an open mind and an open heart.
Am I? Dear Debbie I don't really know what it's about,
I think it's like about an agony aunt.
Do you know what?
I'm gonna put the three in for now.
But I'm gonna put The Divorce in the top 20
and I'm gonna put these two in the top 10
and I reserve the right to change my mind.
I just think this has actually been getting
really good reviews.
From what I've been seeing,
people have been really enjoying this.
It's a different vibe from her.
A lot of people saying it's like their favorite Frida
in a while.
But I might change my mind.
I might actually get rid of,
I think if I get rid of any of them,
I'm gonna get rid of The Divorce.
I know that's kind of crazy putting a newer release in,
But I think it's had a much better reception
and I think the divorce is just a bit basic.
I might change my mind on this.
Like, I do think them putting three Fridas in is criminal.
I don't want to...
I don't want to manifest it. I really don't.
We're gonna keep going off of what I've got in my brain.
There's some stuff I've got in the locker
and then we will start consulting like lists on Goodreads
and doing some research, but I'm feeling good about what I know.
Next we have to go with Miss Alice
Feeney, don't we? Alice Feeney has been kind of growing
and growing as a thriller author in
in popularity.
525,000 ratings.
Oh my God.
And not a bad average rating with a 3.94.
Like mystery thrillers can be lower.
I am also an Alice Feeney hater.
I'm a Frida hater and an Alice Feeney hater.
And I just so happen to be like the most popular authors
in my favorite genre.
And here we are.
However.
There's been people whose opinion I trust
who have really been loving this.
Also, let's just open these three here.
They're right here.
They're in my brain.
They're basically going to be my next three to talk about.
So we'll get into them next.
I am going to really try to enjoy this.
I got crazy out of my life.
I'm so happy.
I swear, I swear I've been doing yoga.
I think this has a really high chance of winning.
We'll see how I feel at the end after
having looked at everything, but...
I just think that's got a lot of ratings
and a pretty good average rating and I feel like
Alice Feeney has been flirting with winning for a really long time.
She's almost won many times
so that is currently one of my top that could wins.
Oh
I am a hater. A woman comes home and there's another woman.
in her house who looks very similar
and I think her husband thinks that that's his wife.
It's just not my kind of thriller this kind
of psychological domestic thriller
is not my preference but the people have been loving it.
Now these three here I think are all
going to be nominated and all I mean I kind of think top 10 for them.
I know we're getting a lot
of top 10s out the way early doors
but like I said I feel pretty confident the top 10. This one I'm
looking at the average rating
and I'm a little bit sus of and I think is this actually Elston's only second book
So First Lie Wins, oh no she's done
other books, but First Lie Wins was,
oh was it not last year? Hang on.
God the years, the years are going fast,
I thought this was last year. Oh my god no it's 2024. Shit.
You're nothing but a worn-out dried-up old egg!
Her previous book came second
and that didn't have the best average rating,
what does it have now? 3.98. Okay so this is rated lower.
Let's park that. I think It's
Not Her by Mary Kubica is going to be there. Again,
pretty good average rating with a 3.93 and 200,000 ratings.
I'm really excited to read this. I'm
manifesting it being there.
I'm like, this is actually one I'm really excited for. I've never
read a Mary Kubica.
She's one of those authors like a Megan Miranda, a Mary Kubica, a...
Lisa Jewell who kind of all exists in the same stratosphere
of thriller for me but I feel like
this has really been a breakout for her.
I've heard great things about it. I think the people
have been loving it. It's also just set on this like vacation lake
and the plot sounds really
interesting. A woman is vacationing with her brother
and sister-in-law. They die, her niece
is missing and her nephew is asleep upstairs unharmed.
I just think like I can picture the mist
kind of sitting on top of the lake and just the vibe of it. I'm
really excited for this.
So I'm putting that top 10. I think it's got enough
average ratings and a high enough rating because you've
got to think. I think Alice in E, It's Not Her by Rebecca
Meeker, This Story Might Save Your Life, Anatomy of an Alibi.
I think these are all getting read
by the same reader. That's making me want to
put this in top 20. We'll see. We'll see. I'm kind of thinking not top
10 for this. I think it'll be nominated
but these are all read by the same sort
sort of reader and like
This, My Husband's Wife and It's Not Her,
have the highest average rating out of all of them.
So you've got to think, that reader
can only vote for one book, you know?
So I'm going to put It's Not Her top 10.
I think I'm also going to put This Story Might Save Your Life top 10
because this has a slightly different angle
where it's almost like mystery romance.
I think there's like these podcast hosts and she's married,
but he's kind of like in love with her and she goes missing.
And I think he tries to solve...
where she's gone and what's happened
so I think there's some people who maybe lean more romance
thriller romance authors who will have read this one
and will vote for this so I'm really excited
about this one too I love the US cover I don't really like the UK cover
and when my parents were
in America I tried to get them to buy it for me
but they couldn't find it anywhere. I feel pretty
good about all of these so far
and the Frida's I think what they decide to do with Frida is always
There's always a little bit of...
It could be anything, anything could happen.
But I'm feeling good about this.
And I think I am for now gonna put Anatomy of an Alibi,
in top 20. Like I say it's just got
a lower average rating than what we've seen so far
and I haven't really heard- it's got a lot
of average ratings but I haven't really heard
anything about it like I have with It's
Not Her or This Story Might Save Your Life. Like
it just hasn't been as buzzy.
First Eye Wins obviously did come second. This could be stupid.
I might move it up. We'll see.
For now I'm gonna put this in top 20. I think it will definitely
be nominated but like I say I just think it shares too many readers
with those other books.
And they'll pick those other books over this.
Okay I've got two more books on my brain that I
want to talk to you about. The next book I want
to talk to you about is The Murder at the Grand Alpine
Hotel by Lucy Foley slash kind of Agatha Christie.
This book I have gone through swings and roundabouts
with. I initially was like I don't know if it's going to be nominated
because it's a Lucy Foley
but it's a different kind of Lucy Foley right.
Again this one has only just come out
a month ago so it's only got 14,000 ratings
not the highest average rating
but we're going to talk about why I think this might be higher okay yeah
Initially was like I don't think it's
been nominated like it's kind of a different
kind of release from how I don't know if they'll nominate it
then I thought it's gonna be nominated
because it's Lucy Foley and Lucy Foley
has always been nominated and it's always done pretty well the Critics
Choice Awards again like I think
Her two most recent releases haven't been the most popular,
The Midnight Feast and The Paris
Apartment, but they make like top five.
She again has this audience, it's a different audience than
this, than this, than this, it's a similar audience like
a Richard Osman right? It's a mystery,
it's a mystery and I think again she's
a great mystery author to kind of represent. Where did
Okay no, it made it less high than I thought it did
but it made top 10 the Midnight Feast and that
was like one of her least buzzy books so far.
And then I kind of thought okay it'll be nominated
but it'll only make top 20.
And then I started thinking it's Agatha Christie right? This is a
Miss Marple that Lucy Foley has written
in collaboration with the Agatha Christie estate.
And I just think there's gonna be people
who see Agatha Christie on the title,
who see it's a Miss Marple mystery, and vote for it.
Even if it hasn't got the highest amount of
ratings yet. Like,
I've just put a book that is like 200,000 ratings in the top 20. Again,
I might move that. And this book I'm saying I think will be top 10,
because I think people will vote for it just for the Agatha Christie
Mention of it all. You see fairly often if there's something,
this is more I think in non-fiction actually the good news choice was,
but if there's something that people can like identify
with with that book they vote for it. So Disney High.
I love Disney High,
but that got so many more votes than the ratings it had because people
love the Disney Channel or last year Jane
Austen's Bookshelf, which again, I love.
These are just five star non-fictions for me,
but got so many more votes than it had
ratings because it had Jane Austen in the title.
So I think there are going to be plenty of people
who just see like an Agatha Christie
book or even a Lucy Foley book, right?
If they haven't read any of the books
that are nominated, I think this is a risk.
I'm taking a bit of a swing here, but I'm going to put this in top 10.
There's just something that tells me
the Agatha Christie Name Association
will do wonders for this and it will make top 10.
I know that's risky.
There's going to be some of you that disagree with that.
But I just think people will see Agatha Christie and will vote.
Am I going to regret this?
I might.
I don't know, there's just something that tells me.
The last book that's on top of my brain, right here,
that I actually have been hearing a lot lately.
The past couple of weeks,
I've just been seeing people read this
or people asking me, like I've had multiple comments
asking me if I've read this book,
but I've purposely not gone and looked at its rating
or how many ratings it has.
I'm a little bit, I actually hadn't heard of this book.
Like I say, I have not been plugged in
on the new releases of it all.
Sorry that I'm now like in the sun.
Should we like move a little bit?
Slide to the left.
Slide to the right, okay, that's a bit better, is Mad Mabel.
I think this is a mystery. Sally Hepworth
has been, holy ----, hang on. Wait, this came out in October.
Hang on, I need to do some research
here. So I think this came out in Australia in 2025, October.
So this has been out for a long time,
but I think it's been released in America,
and I guess probably in the UK, but America is what
matters. It's when a book is released
in America that makes it eligible.
It's been released in April, 2026. So this is eligible.
So this has been out for a long time,
but 401,000 ratings
and a 4.37 average rating.
I need to rethink.
everything about what I think about the winner because that is crazy.
Again this is more mystery
coded which I would love for it to do well if it's mystery coded.
I honestly don't know too much
about it. Sally Hepworth is an author that is nominated on and off
but this seems like a swing
for her. This seems like a great great release for her.
Top 10. Top 10. I need to I need to consider
whether that's gonna win. I was thinking Alice
Feeney's gonna win. Alice Feeney's gonna win.
And kill me now, but that, wow, okay.
There's a lot to think about there.
We now have eight out of our top 10 and two out of
our top 20. So we are, we're halfway there.
Again, we may move things around. Uh, I'm kind of looking
at some of these and thinking, I don't think,
do I think three thrillers are going to be nominated?
This is a question. I think if I'm actually trying to do well
though, there's more chance
of like three thrillers being nominated than like a book
that you're fighting over being 19th or 20th.
So actually if I'm trying to do well,
I should probably just put all three in.
Even though I don't, part of me tells me they won't do it
because she's been moaning about it.
What if they only nominate one?
If they only nominate one, Frida, she's winning, right?
If they only nominate one, Frida, she's winning.
But I just don't think they'll do that either.
I think they might do two.
I think only doing one would be bowing
to her peer pressure too much but they may.
And now there is something they give us that helps us cheat.
Those of you who watch my videos will
know that I do a video every year where I read
a selection of books from this list that Goodreads
put out. Readers hit new books of the year so far.
Now they used to only put like four books.
for each genre and like they would all get nominated
because these are the most popular
books in each genre halfway through the year
so like yes yes yes he is going to win contemporary
i can't see a world in which yes he doesn't win contemporary
but anyways um they give us the most
popular books they did 13 books per genre this year
so halfway through the year oh god
Am I being crazy? Am I being crazy by not putting this in top 20?
Oh okay, we're gonna think about that. We're gonna think about that.
Maybe I should move Anatomy of an Alibi out. Am I just being stupid?
Or am I thinking with my brain
these all share the same reader? Anyways,
we've got all these on the board. Then here are number six to thirteen.
Now, halfway through the year is like half of the releases,
so I think basically anything
these four aren't going to be nominated.
I did enjoy A Dissection for Murder and
It's a legal thriller.
So there's that. I think we need to consider The First Time I Saw Him,
Her Last Breath and the
Viola Davis and James Patterson.
Something to remember is Goodreads don't, it's not just the
top rated books in each genre,
they do have certain things and certain types of books they
want to put in there. They want to put some more,
I think they tend to put some more like diverse
authors in there sometimes, not necessarily in mystery thriller,
but some diverse authors who
maybe don't have the highest ratings but to represent them.
There's usually always a historical that does really well
and makes top 10 because that's got
the historical voter audience all in one.
So that usually makes top 10, even if it's got less
ratings, lower average rating than some of the thrillers,
because again, their audience is shared,
the historical audience just all go vote for this one.
But I haven't found what I think that is yet.
I haven't discovered what I think that is.
There's usually a Kindle Unlimited or something in there.
I'm just gonna tell you now, I'm not getting that.
I'm not getting that. It's like an obscure Kindle Unlimited book
that I've never heard of. I'm not
even going to try. I hate to say it.
I hope I don't sound ridiculous. I don't know who this man is.
I mean, he could be walking down the street.
I wouldn't, I wouldn't know a thing.
Okay, let's look at this. So the first book in this series won.
It won many, many years ago.
I don't know.
This just doesn't fill me with like, it'll be there.
3.75, not a high rating.
I'm going to put that one on hold.
Something, it just doesn't light me up.
You know, it just doesn't make me feel like that'll be there.
Her Last Breath by Rachel Adams.
I recognize this has less ratings, but 4.13 is a pretty good rating.
Can't remember if the last word was nominated.
I feel like he just needs to be nominated.
And I just think they need to put some respect on Rachel Adams' name.
Now, I know I'm biased.
No, it wasn't nominated, but it was a low average rating.
This has got a high average rating.
I'm gonna put this in, but again,
I'm gonna put this in the top 20 for now. I just feel like
Taylor Adams offers something different than a lot
of the other thrillers here, where he is more this
kind of suspense, high action, yeah, crazy-ass book, basically.
Like, really tense. Oh my god,
horrible, horrible. But, I mean, I would love to read it.
I would love it to make top 10. I just
don't think it will, but I think something tells me
that that will be nominated. And then...
I originally was like, this Farrah Davis isn't going
to be nominated, but it's got 86,000
ratings and a 4.37, and maybe they will, maybe they will.
I feel like a mystery thriller, hang on,
I feel like I need to touch up my lip gloss.
I feel like in mystery thriller sometimes,
with the kind of celebrity collaborations,
they don't put them in there as much as other categories,
like non-fiction obviously. Oh okay,
this was nominated. I remember pondering over
this and I don't think I put it in.
Okay, I'm gonna put this in.
I'm gonna put the Viola Davis in, but again,
I'm gonna put this in top 20. I'm not gonna put it in top 10.
There is that element of like,
people see it's Viola Davis and vote for it
because they love Viola Davis, but I just...
I think it's got a lot to compete with up here.
I know you're looking at that Lucy Foley
and judging me a little bit,
but I just, it's the vibe, it's my instinct.
Okay, I'm feeling good about that.
I want to look at, is there a Harlan Coben?
Is there a John Grisham?
Because I feel like those authors are nominated
like every three books or something.
They used to always be nominated,
but I feel like their audience isn't the people who vote.
in the Goodreads Choice Awards
so they're not nominated as much as they used to be. I think
Goodreads goes for much more like modern buzzier authors
in the Goodreads Choice Awards rather than
these kind of legacy such dedicated audience thriller authors you know.
So John Grisham has
got a first in a series out The French Illusion just came out
a month ago got a good average
My average rating of 4.2 is 16,000 ratings.
We'll consider that. Has Harlan Coben got one?
I don't think Harlan Coben has one.
Here's the thing, John Grisham was nominated last year
and I feel like it's kind of,
is it too soon for him to be nominated again?
Let's put a pin in that. Let's put a pin in
the French illusion. Oh Karen Slaughter!
I read last year We Are All Guilty Here.
Uh again this, let's see whether this made it in the list.
Okay it was only tenth.
Hmm, hmm, oh has Lisa Jewell got a book?
We need to look up Lisa Jewell as well.
Lisa Jewell's always nominated. I forgot about Lisa. I enjoy Lisa.
But the second book in the series has just come out,
The Secrets We Hide. 4.0. Okay, this only came out in August
and it's got quite a few ratings on a good average rating.
I love, love, love, love, love the first book in the series.
Like it was one of my favorite books I read for the challenge
and I've never read Karen's book before.
I know I just wanna read all of her stuff.
I would love for this to be nominated.
I would love for this to make top 10.
I don't think it will,
but I do think Karen Slaughter is often nominated.
Like they often nominate sometimes the 40th book
in the Will Trent series or something.
I'm gonna put this in there, put it in top 20 though.
I don't think it'll make top 10.
That's sad though, I'd love to read it.
Lisa Jewell, let's have a look at Lisa Jewell
cause she's always nominated and she always does very well.
Does she, I think she has a release this year.
Oh, okay.
82,000 ratings. It came out in June.
So some of the ones we've seen with hundreds of thousand
ratings came out in like January, February, March.
This one came out in June, but doesn't
have a super high average rating.
I don't know how I feel about this one. I don't know
how I feel about this one. I think they love Lisa.
Do you like me? Yes or no question.
It's a yes or no question. Do you like me?
Something tells me they love her. This is
not a super high average rating though.
What are some of her previous ones? 3.75.
Okay, none of this is true, but that's got a four average rate.
I'm gonna put it in. I know
you're thinking, Megan, some of these other
books you're seeing, you should have put it
based, but it's just an instinct. It's just an instinct.
Do you know what I keep thinking about?
I keep thinking about Dissection of a Murder,
which I've read, and again, was kind of lower
on that list. I need to bring that list back up.
Have I just kind of, ugh, dissed books that should
have been on here? Again, we may, we may get rid of,
we may get rid of. I'm putting it in.
But we may get rid of it.
Have I dismissed Dissection of a Murder too early?
Because it is a different kind of thriller.
It's a courtroom law thriller.
And I don't see anything else like that on this list.
And this was really buzzy, at least in the UK.
It's a legal thriller.
We haven't got any other legal thriller really.
I mean, probably this one's a legal thriller, right?
Usually John Grisham's kind of...
Maybe this one isn't.
This is more FBI, CIA.
Something is telling me they're gonna put
this in as like legal thriller rap.
Legal thriller up. Oh guys, I get in my head.
I get so in my head. I'm putting it in. I'm feeling
good about this top eight, but I can't think of anything else.
Like surely if there's something
else that's going to make it up there,
I would have thought of it by now. Do you know what I'm
really worried about? I'm worried about there being books
that are just not on my radar that
I don't even know exist that should be here.
Okay, how many we got? One, two, three, four,
five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven,
twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen.
A distinct lack of diverse authors
but that usually is a major problem with the mystery thriller
genre. I feel like we need more mysteries.
What mysteries have come out? We've got
Richard Osman, we've got Lucy Foley but what...
I feel like we need some mysteries. Oh
Oh!
Jesse Q. Sutanto does have one and it is a mystery.
Miss Mabel Goes Back to the
Chopping Block. It hasn't... this came out in April,
it's only got 10,000 ratings.
I just think it hasn't quite reached the hype that Vera Wong's did.
So again, let's put that in pause,
but I don't think that will be nominated.
I don't think John Mars has a new book.
Oh, okay.
I didn't even know.
I haven't heard about this.
What is Warm Bodies also?
That's short stories.
Okay.
Dead in the Water by John Mars, 3.85, 43,000 ratings.
Came out in January.
I'm putting it on pause.
Now, Julian McAllister has Cooler Unknown.
Oh, that can't be.
Holy ----.
3.32.
I'm in a complete state of shock. I forgot what I was gonna say.
Shari has a new one. That's a 3.55. Riley!
Hang on, we need to talk about Riley.
We need to talk about Riley. Oh, okay, hang on, hang on, hang on. Okay,
so that can't be nominated
because you have to have a 3.5 average rating at least to be nominated.
Wow, I didn't realize
that this had had such poor ratings. Shit. Okay, Riley.
Okay, Riley hasn't been nominated in a hot minute.
He used to always be.
His then most recent releases, I think,
haven't had a high enough average rating.
I think Middle of the Night was maybe nominated.
I don't think With a Vengeance was
because I think it had a too low average rating.
I think you kind of got to throw Riley in there.
I think you've kind of got to throw him in there.
I think it would be wrong not to,
but this has been really well received.
I know a 3.83 is not that high,
but for Riley it is.
Yes.
These days.
Oh my god! Tea Central over here!
Riley is divisive. I think that only one left when that was...
I mean that had a 4.1 too.
But I think that was nominated.
I think they kind of nominate him if he does well.
I'm putting Riley in. I'm putting Riley in!
I think he's done well enough with The Unknown to get put in there.
Me and Riley, we have a love-hate relationship.
But again, I'm only going to put that top 20.
We're gonna have to move some up I think
because there's nothing I'm seeing
that's like oh that's gonna join the top 20 you know.
I haven't found that historical book yet have I?
I don't know if I'm gonna be able to.
Um I'm still looking for mysteries
because I mean this one that was a mystery
I think the year before God of
the Woods one that was a mystery. People love mysteries. What mysteries
have come out this year? Oh did Murder at World's End come out in
America this year? I really really enjoyed this. I would
I would recommend this to people.
This came out in January in America.
Now, it's only got 21,000 ratings.
It's got a 4.01 though.
Not a bad average rating.
Something tells me they could throw this in
and it would only make top 20.
But I think we need more mysteries, right?
It's all thrillers.
It's always all thrillers.
**** off thrillers.
And I think this has been gaining a bit of momentum.
Oh, we talked about that.
That's sad, but it is what it is.
Let's just mention this quickly.
The Ending Fire itself by V.E. Schwab
would have been nominated, I think,
but it's got too low an average rating.
It's got a 3.44.
So see ya.
Something is telling me
in my heart and in my soul. I know the math ain't mathing.
I know there's books that I'm like
this book came out in January and it's only got 130,000 ratings.
I might need to put this in
if I'm truthful actually. I think I might need
to put this in top 20. I don't think it'll make
top 10 though but something's telling me
that this they could we're gonna have a look at some
other lists but something's telling me they could put
this in for a mystery. We need more mysteries.
I mean we always need more mysteries. There isn't enough but
It's fine. I'm just going to Google like 2026 mystery thriller books
and see if there's anything
I have not considered. Oh, Rachel Hawkins.
She's a bit boring. I just, I just, oh, she's sometimes
nominated. Let me open it. I'll think about it.
Oh, How to Get Away with Murder. No, only 11,000.
I don't feel like that'll be there.
Upcoming mysteries and thrillers readers can't wait to
read. Okay. Let's see if there's anything on here
that I have not thought of. Jennifer Hillier.
Oh!
Forget my baby.
I wanna read this.
I wanna read this.
I might put this top 10.
I just think Big Little Lies
has got enough cachet in the bank
that people will vote for this.
Okay, Big Little Truth by Liane Moriarty
came out in end of August.
Again, it's been out like two months.
Has 57,000 ratings, a 4.14 average rating.
Oh baby, how could I forget?
I'm putting that top 10.
Something tells me, something tells me.
Again, I'm probably wrong.
My girl, Leigh-Anne. I want to read this.
I love Big Little Lies. I think she's an incredible author.
I think there's something a little bit different
about her stuff. I'm putting it top 10. Okay,
we have two more spots.
I can take things out though, if I want to. Let's keep looking at
this list. This is a John Grisham.
I do sometimes like a Sarah Pekkanen. Don't ask me why. I haven't
heard of this, The Secret Dinner, but it's got a lot of ratings.
It's got 24,000 ratings. Oh,
Oh, it's translated.
Oh, they might like putting a translated book in.
Let's sit with that one.
Janice, here's the thing.
Janice has never been nominated.
She is obviously a hugely influential mystery author,
particularly like in the UK.
She's never been nominated because for a long time,
her books came out much later in the US, like years later.
They were not published in the US.
This obviously has been,
but it just hasn't got that many ratings.
It's only got 3000.
I feel like Janice would get more than that.
Should I put Heather Gay?
That's a real housewife, it's all like,
Susie, should I just put her in for the fun of it?
And I feel like I am missing a kind of diverse author
who they're going to put in because it's,
the genre is just, you know, the genre is so white.
Okay, we speak about this every year.
I rant about it every year.
Oh, do you know who used to be nominated a lot?
Um...
Colson Whitehead.
Has he got a new book out?
Cool Machine.
The third in the series? No, I think
if that were to be nominated it would be nominated in historical,
right? Because I think- let's check what the first
in the series was nominated in. I think Harlem
Shuffle was nominated in historical when it came out.
No, it was nominated mystery thriller. Was the
second book nominated? No, it's only got 6,000 ratings.
It's got a high average rating though.
Oh
I don't know, I don't know. We've got two spots left.
Do I give it to- this one's really intriguing me.
This came out in August in a translation
and something just tells me that they might be like
oh I've never heard of it but it's set in Brazil,
it's by again a diverse or the Latinx author,
it's a translated book.
Something just tells me that they might be like oh translated book,
you've got to get into the head of Goodreads.
I mean this there's this one it should have been
you 48,000 ratings. I think I need to put the first time I saw him in.
It's just got a lot
A lot.
I keep doubting myself.
The first one won.
I'm gonna put it in, but I'm gonna put it in top 20.
I don't think it'll make top 10.
I don't think it's got a high enough average rating,
but I just think I'm kind of being stupid
not putting a book in with 130,000 ratings.
But I feel pretty good about this.
The lack of diversity is bothering me.
The lack of mysteries is bothering me.
Am I crazy for not putting John Grisham in?
I don't know.
Wait, wait, wait.
Tana French. I've been not paying enough respect on Tana French's name.
Like when I did the
reacting to the New York Times best mystery thrillers they
were all Tana French books.
I've never read a Tana French. Has she got a new release this year?
Oh she has.
4.21 average rating, 39,000 ratings.
And I feel like this is a mystery
and it's more of like a literary mystery.
I think there's definitely a reader.
that is reading a ton of French books
that isn't reading anything else on this list.
Oh do I put that top 10?
Has a ton of French just dropped in and gone top 10? I don't know about
that okay. Oh my god okay there's a few I might
be putting in here that I'm stupid for right. I might
be stupid putting Riley in.
I might be stupid putting Murder at World's End when like no one's
read it. I might be stupid putting this one
in when I don't get vibes from that. We have one spot left.
I need to move something up to top 10
or I need to put something in top 10.
I think Tana French is going to be nominated.
I'm going to put her in. Am I
going to put her straight into top 10?
It's got a high of 4.21. What are the
secrets... what is the... that's been out since March.
Is it The Secrets We Hide by Karen Slaughter? I think was a
similar number. 4.18 with more ratings.
I just don't think I can put that top
Top 10 when.
The first book only just made it into top 10.
Do I put Anatomy of an Alibi in top 10?
When- but something's telling me that that will just lose out
to Mary Kubica, Tiffany Crumb, Alice
Feeney, Freida McFadden. Something's telling me
to just put this ton of French in top 10.
Crazy though. Am I crazy? Okay here's what I'm thinking.
Not enough diversity in this list. The
only diversity we have I think is Viola Davis.
So I think there's going to be some more smaller
authors who are diverse who make the list.
I haven't got the historical book that is The God
of the Woods or All the Colors of the Dark or what was the big one?
There was one that was like set
in Australia one year that was like 600 pages.
Homecoming I think that was called. Like I haven't
I don't know how to find that. It will be under historical.
It won't be under mystery thriller.
There are things I'm missing here.
There are things I'm missing and I'm wondering,
am I being stupid for not putting John Grisham in?
I think I need to let
that translated one go. Let the mouse go.
I think this just doesn't have...
I've never heard of it.
If it's there and I haven't predicted it, I'm gonna kick myself.
Could they put that Colson Whitehead in? Maybe.
Could they put in this Jesse Q. Constant? But it's
only got a 3.88 with 10,000 ratings.
If I want to take out anything of this top 10, I think it would
be the Lisa Jewell. Do I want to take the Lisa Jewell out?
She's like always nominated. I think
I'd have to go back to like 2020
to find one where she wasn't nominated. Is this even a novel?
Yeah it was. This is- I have to go back to 2020
to find one where she wasn't nominated.
I can't hear it.
I can't hear it.
I can't hear it.
My heart's going pitter patter pitter patter.
I feel sick like I could throw up.
That Laura Dave just doesn't give me tea though.
It just does not give me tea.
It doesn't give me the vibe.
Am I locking this in? Am I locking this in?
I think I am. I don't think I'm gonna get much better than this.
Like trying to balance out the different kind of books
they like to see there,
the different kind of audiences we have.
I'm locking it in.
I'm locking it in.
I don't feel perfect about it,
but I don't think I ever feel perfect about it.
Okay, so this is my top 10.
This is what I think will be top 20.
I think I'm wrong.
Okay, I think, you know what?
I think maybe 15.
I think previous years I've gotten like 12, 13, 14.
I think I'm at least there, right?
My top 10.
I'm almost certain that all of these will be nominated,
apart from obviously I have put three
Freeda's in, I just think that's the best chance I've got
of being right, you know what I mean?
Like odds are if they eliminate one I don't know which they will,
because The Witch obviously has
the least ratings, but is I think the most well received.
I'm feeling confident about
putting Lucy Foley in the top 10.
Okay, okay, I have to predict a winner now,
right at the end of the video. I'm going to say something crazy.
I'm gonna say Mad Mabel's gonna win.
That average rating and that amount of ratings,
obviously it has been out since October 2025 in Australia,
but that's crazy. And again,
I think the same person reads Alice Feeney, Mary Kubica, Tiffany Crumb,
Freda McFadden, maybe even like a Liane Moriarty, like Lisa Jewell.
The same person reads all of
them. Ashley Elston. The same person reads all of them.
I don't know who reads Mad Mabel.
It's a mystery, right? I think it's more in the Richard Foley
I think Lucy Foley, I think it's more
of the original Richard Osman Lucy Foley vein than some of the other stuff.
So something, I just can't get it out of my head.
I did a swing last year predicting Holly Jackson was going to win.
And I'm going to do the same this year.
I'm going to predict Sally Hepworth is going to win.
With the caveat, it could be Alice Feeney.
With the caveat, if only one Frida is nominated
because they listened to her moaning, Frida will win.
But I'm going to go crazy and I'm going to say Mad Mabel.
And you know what?
I'm really excited to read that.
I think that'll be up my street.
To be honest, this is probably,
other than like the Fridas and the Alice,
although I'm really going to try it, this is wishful thinking.
This is a real like...
There is bias here. This is a real wishful thinking top 10.
But anyways, that is me predicting. Oh my
god, I've been filming for an hour.
That is me predicting top 20 of the Goodreads Choice Awards
mystery thriller. I think we'll find out on the 10th of November.
I will react to the top 20 at
the start of my vlog. Also though, actually,
I should have said this at the start. If you want
to join me to react to not only
a greater discussion around what the top 20 ends up being,
But every single category,
you should join me over on my Patreon
because every year we do a live show
reacting to all the nominees
of the Goodreads Choice Awards.
And then we also react to the top 10s and the winners.
We do live shows reacting to all of them.
And I'm gonna be hosting over on my Patreon
a Goodreads Choice Awards read-a-thon in November.
So November is the time to be on my Patreon
if you've ever thought about it.
The live shows that we do
are my favorite live shows every year
where we find out
All the nominees. I don't look at anything other than,
I do feel myself reacting to the top 20 of
Mystery Thriller, but every other genre I don't look
at until my live show with my patrons and it's
the most fun live show of the year,
it's the best live show of the year, so if you want to come join
me to react to the whole Goodreads Choice Awards,
the link is down below to join my patreon. It can be
as little as £3 a month and it is so much fun.
So there we go, I need to go take a lie down.
I need to go sit in a dark room,
I don't know how I feel about this top 20, I don't know,
it's my instinct but there we go.
There we have it friends, let me know what you think of this
top 20, let me know how many you think are correct.
Oh god this was exhausting. Let me
know if there's any books you think I've missed
because I could have missed some,
I have not been clued in. So yeah, thank you so much for watching,
I can't wait to see how correct I
am and I'll see you very soon in another video. Bye!