The Midterm Polls are WRONG? | Victor Davis Hanson Daily Brief
Are the 2026 midterm election polls telling the whole story, or are Republicans being underestimated once again?
In this episode of The Daily Brief, Victor Davis Hanson breaks down the approaching 2026 midterm elections, Donald Trump's strategy to mobilize Republican voters, and the critical Senate and House races that could determine control of Congress.
With Election Day approaching, Hanson questions the accuracy of political polling and argues that the Republican Party may be in a stronger position than many political commentators suggest. Drawing on historical midterm election results, the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, and recent polling trends, Hanson examines whether Republicans can overcome the historical disadvantages facing the party in power.
Hanson also explores Trump's campaign rallies and their potential impact on voter turnout. Could Trump's ability to energize his political base make the difference in close congressional races?
The conversation turns to the national media, the Wall Street Journal, and the debate over Trump's tariff policies. Hanson argues that traditional economic and political institutions have overlooked the interests of American manufacturing workers and questions whether mainstream coverage accurately reflects the country's political mood.
Later, Hanson delivers an extended analysis of Elon Musk, examining his transformation from a celebrated technology entrepreneur to one of the most polarizing figures in American politics. From Tesla and SpaceX to Starlink and X, Hanson discusses Musk's technological achievements, his support for Donald Trump, and why he believes Democrats have turned against him.
The episode also examines California Governor Gavin Newsom's comments about democratic socialism, his potential presidential ambitions, and the direction of the Democratic Party heading toward 2028.
Finally, Hanson identifies the election contests he believes could reveal the true political mood of the country, including races in Michigan, Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota.
Will Republicans hold Congress? Are the polls underestimating Trump's supporters? And which races could determine the future of American politics?
Chapters
00:00 Are the 2026 Midterm Polls Wrong?
03:44 The Wall Street Journal, Media Bias & Trump's Tariffs
07:55 The 2024 Election and Trump's Midterm Strategy
11:43 Why Democrats Turned Against Elon Musk
20:51 Gavin Newsom and the Future of the Democratic Party
25:21 The Senate and Governor Races That Could Decide the Midterms
27:50 Hispanic Voters, Immigration and the Republican Coalition
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Republicans keep control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections?
Victor Davis Hanson examines the historical challenges facing the president's party during midterm elections and argues that Republicans may have a better chance of retaining congressional control than some polling suggests.
Why does Victor Davis Hanson question the midterm polls?
Hanson argues that polling organizations have underestimated Republican support in previous elections and questions whether current surveys accurately capture voter sentiment.
How could Donald Trump's rallies affect the midterm elections?
Hanson explains why Trump's rallies are designed primarily to energize existing supporters, particularly voters who may not otherwise participate in midterm elections.
Why does Victor Davis Hanson defend Elon Musk?
Hanson highlights Musk's work with Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, and other companies while examining how Musk's political alignment has changed his relationship with Democrats.
What does Gavin Newsom's position on socialism mean for the Democratic Party?
Hanson critiques Newsom's recent comments about democratic socialism and considers what they suggest about the party's ideological direction and future leadership.
Which 2026 election races does Victor Davis Hanson consider most important?
Hanson discusses contests in Michigan, Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota as potential indicators of Republican strength and the broader national political climate.