The midterm stakes and the last-minute messaging

Thanks for having me. Love having you both on. We get you both on together tonight. I'm going to start with you, Neil, because we are here five days away. Everybody's looking for the closing message here. For the Republicans, what is the closing message going into the midterms? It's like the NCAA tournament. Survive in advance if you can. The fundamentals are terrible. The president's overall approval rating is very low. Energy is clearly on the Dem side. Yeah. Momentum is there. Folks want to send a message and make a change. The one saving grace for Republicans right now, or I guess it's two, it's the map and the money. In the Senate, the path to the majority. ...runs through red states, states that Trump carried by 12, 13 points in 2024. And while I'm opposed to mid-cycle redistricting, the reality is it happened, and you have a redistricted House. So the map favors Republicans, and they have a huge advantage structurally in that they've got all of this outside money that can help them with voter turnout. Will it be enough? I'm skeptical, but they're going to try. Okay, Nicole, so as the Democrats look at it, the history is on the Democrat side. As midterms are, you know, it's party in power in the White House always seems to lose seats. It's happened all but twice in recent memory. But here's the thing. If the Democrats win the House and if they win the Senate, do the problems, do these concerns about affordability, does it fall on the Democrats' plate now to figure out a solution? Yeah, I mean, look, we feel really good about the House. As you said, the Senate map, the fact that we're even talking about the Democrats being able to do this when it is through these red states and we're talking about competitive seats, it's a testament to how angry the country is, how frustrated they are on problems that weren't delivered, that were made in 2024, and really the candidates that we're running. But the thing is, if we have the House and not the Senate, I think you're going to see a lot of big messaging bills. If we have both, I think you're going to see more bills that they're going to try and push to a desk for a veto. Because even... And so the focus becomes on 2028 and the Democrats need to show, look. We are focused on you being able to live your best life. We need you to be able to afford it. But at the same time, they've got a base that wants them to address the corruption. So you're going to see a lot of subpoenas and you're going to see a lot of oversight happening. They need to balance these things for the American public and set us up to have a good partner in the White House. Did Democrats go too far in 2018 when they won the majority during President Trump's first term? Because they did that. They impeached him once, obviously, and then twice. They're not going to impeach him. I know Republicans are running around saying that. They're going to have oversight and they're going to issue subpoenas. But it's not going to be impeach Trump. It's going to be about players in the administration. Here's where it gets interesting. I actually think, as we saw, quite frankly, and I was there. I was chairman of FERC from, you know, 2018 to 2020 when Dems had oversight. Honestly, I didn't see a big shift in scrutiny on my agency. It was the same as when, you know, Republicans had the majority in 17 and 18. The big difference this time, I don't think members of the administration... are going to show up. I think they're going to ignore congressional Democrats. The people that have to worry... All these companies that bent the knee to the president and to the administration over the last couple of years, folks who funded the ballroom, folks who are supporting some of these initiatives, who are investing in some of these family businesses, they can't avoid congressional subpoenas. That's where I think the focus and the oversight will be, is all of these entities, all these All these outside folks that... poured money into the administration in the last couple of years, the American people are going to want to see, hey, what'd you get for all that? Yeah. And that's, I mean, that's the big question, obviously, moving ahead. You know, I think what I'm, as I'm watching this, and maybe I'm not digging down deep enough here, but I hear the affordability issues here, and I often wonder, it, you know, The problem that the Democrats ran into, especially in 2024 with Joe Biden, was this idea. They were saying inflation is transitory inflation. And you could talk about it in all these bureaucratic terms. The reality is people are going to look at the bottom line. That's what they're going to pay attention to. That was the same way in 2024. In 2026, it's the same thing. But again, the pendulum swings both ways here, Nicole. Well, we've talked about this. I mean, I think Republicans are doing what I've said the error of the Biden administration was, which is let me give you some facts and figures. And people know they're making decisions at their kitchen table. And by the way, it's not about getting to a place we're getting by. That should be unacceptable. No one's talking about living a life of massive luxury, but they should be able to sign up for Little League and go to the grocery store and fill up their car and not have any of that stress them out. Have a vacation once a year. Like, this is okay for the goals of the American... American public, safe communities, an ability to afford this, that's what the Democrats need to show that they're going to do for the American public, and that's why they're frustrated. They voted for Trump, even though they had a lot of qualms about certain issues for him because they thought he was going to keep us out of foreign wars and adjust inflation and address the economy, and it hasn't happened. All right, we're in our last minute here. What's your prediction? What are we going to see? If you had to make a prediction here. House, 230 to 240. I actually think the Senate development in Alaska the last couple of days where we found out that the challenger there was involved in the multiple Dan Sullivans, I think that could be indicative. Too many Dan's. I think Susan Collins is a fighter. I think she survives in Maine. So House, 230, 240 Dems. Senate? 50-50 or 51-49, and if it's 51-49 Dems, Fetterman flips, 50-50 Vance breaks the tie, Dem, Republican majority. I don't think Fetterman flips. I think he likes the attention of being there. I think he likes the Joe Manchin factor, but that's just me. Having known Senator Fetterman for a long time, any last predictions, Nicole? I go with that. I mean, look, I'm hopeful that the House is going to take it by a real margin. I think we really need that. We don't need our own Freedom Caucus situation happening to our new speaker. And look, I'm going to be the optimistic Democrat. I have high hopes for places like Ohio, the original populace of Sherrod Brown. This is what the country needs. I think the people of Alaska, is there some dirty tricks at play? Maybe, but do they care? I don't know. One final point. This is a weird one for Republicans. The best outcome for us, quite frankly, would be if we're to lose our majority, would be to have a big. Damn majority in the House, because then that weakens the DSA, it weakens some of the radical progressives, and you'll have more of a moderate agenda. Very antithetical to kind of wrap my brain around that. It's like, I don't want to lose the House, but if we're going to lose it, I'd rather lose it big than small. Neil and Nicole, good to see you both. Thank you very much. Good to see you. Great to see you. And we're back after this here on The Final Five.