US midterms 2026 latest: Who is Alaska’s ‘Decoy Dan’?

Welcome to Al Jazeera's Midterms Roundup. It's good to have you with us. I'm Joe Nahal. Well, there's a contentious battle playing out at the extreme northwest of the United States that could influence who gets to control Congress. It's happening in this state, Alaska. It's known as the last frontier. It's also where the Democrats are hoping for a big win. There's one seat in the House up for grabs here, but also there's a Senate race that's at the heart of this drama. Here's the problem. Typically, there are two leading candidates in a race, a Republican and a Democrat. But here in Alaska, there's a third. And no, you're not reading that wrong, because up against Mary Peltola for the Democrats, there are two candidates named Dan Sullivan. One's a Republican and one's an independent. Well, we've got correspondents this hour across the country for you in Georgia, in Maine and in Iowa. We begin, though, with our chief U.S. correspondent, Alan Fisher, at the White House. And Alan, let's talk about this Alaska drama. Let's talk about why so many people are suddenly so angry about it. The president says he wants Democratic candidate Mary Peltola criminally prosecuted. What's actually going on? Well, it's actually a big deal because this is now a toss-up state. The Republicans hold it through Daniel S. Sullivan, and Mary Peltola is ahead in the polls, maybe far enough ahead that she could actually nick this. Now, what is alleged by The New York Times and others is that the Democrats deliberately recruited someone called Dan Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan, and put them on the ballot. The intention was to try and confuse people. Now, the Department of Justice, directed by the president, Donald Trump, went to the Alaska courts and said, you cannot certify any election result other than the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, winning this seat. Now, many people will tell you that that is perhaps premature. Patola, she's keeping up with her schedule of events. She's not intending to drop out of the race. As for the president, he, like many others, say this is a case where decoy Dan is causing problems. The Alaska situation is terrible, what Peltola's done and what Schumer and the Democrat Party have done. It was a scheme. It was election fraud, total election fraud. But when you take a look at the names, you would be, oh my, I would say most people would be inclined to vote for the Daniel as opposed to the Dan, the way it sets up. It's very unfair. It's very confusing and meant to be. It's a fraud. Now, actually, it says on the ballot, Daniel S. Sullivan, Republican incumbent. Donald Trump says a lot of people don't know what the word incumbent means. As for Peltola, she says, look, no one is going to be worrying about names. They're voting on issues, the things that are important to Alaskans. I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability. They are very concerned that Dan Sullivan is using his connections in Washington, D.C. to manipulate the situation. And I am very concerned about Alaskans' voices not being heard, you know, things getting manipulated. So Mary Peltola saying this will be decided on the issues. It's a nice idea, but it looks as if this is actually going to be decided by the courts. That could take some time. So if this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November the 3rd. Alan, thank you. Well, I'm from high drama in Alaska. Let's go all the way to the other end of the country to Maine. And as the lone Republican senator in a blue-leaning state there, Susan Collins is locked in a political fight that's begun to get ugly. Eva McKend is there for us. Eva, you've been speaking to voters. You've also been speaking to both the Senate candidates. Bring us up to date with what's going on in the race. Well, Jonah, a key conversation happening right now in Maine is who is better situated to fight for the working class. That's why we saw Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins campaigning at a shipyard in Bath. She argues that her seniority and ability to bring money back to the state is a better asset to them. Meanwhile, her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, no stranger to the picket line, in many conversations with Al Jazeera since we've been on the ground, has emphasized his background in the state Senate, where he pushed for universal free school meals and protecting employment rights for workers. He also accuses Collins of looking down on him as a fifth-generation logger, as evidenced by one of her recent ads. We put that question to Collins. Let's listen. Senator Collins, Troy Jackson says that you look down on him, that you're running a race that really minimizes him. Can you explain your position on that? Well, first of all, that's absolutely absurd. Who can do more for the people of Maine? Someone who is the chair of the Appropriations Committee. That's been the first opportunity that a Maine senator has had in nearly a century, or someone who is at the bottom for seniority. Troy, if he were to be elected, would be either 99th or 100th. I'm going to be, if I'm reelected, the fifth highest ranking member of the Senate. Collins continuing to make her case in a series of events across the state this week. Meanwhile, Jackson appearing with Planned Parenthood, but really emphasizing this issue of protecting reproductive rights and abortion access more broadly. Jonah. Eva, thank you. OK, let's widen things out. Look at the bigger picture for a moment. Democratic victory in the House appears certain. It's widely predicted. The question is whether newly drawn maps so-called redistricting will reshape the electoral landscape and just how much of an advantage they could give either side. The scale of their incoming majority remains the cycle's biggest wild card. So let's go now to Scott McLean, who breaks it all down for us. Hey, Joni. Yeah. So there are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. 218 is the number you're going to hear a lot over the next couple of days. That is the number that either party needs to either retain or regain control of this chamber. if you believe the pundits this whole race is going to come down to about 50 seats that will determine which party keeps control the rest by and large are foregone conclusions and i'll show you why it's because of the way that the lines have been drawn and redrawn so if you look at in 2024 this is the ninth district of Tennessee this is an urban district pretty much the city of Memphis well they've redrawn the lines in 2026 to take in parts of Democrat-leaning Memphis and also lots of Republican-leaning rural areas and even the suburbs of Nashville. These are very different voting demographics. Advantage goes to the Republicans. They've also done something similar in Florida. If you look at the 9th District again in 2024, a pretty comfortable Democratic win there. But watch how they redrew the lines for this time around, taking in much more rural areas that favor the Republicans. This was a district in 2024 voted for Kamala Harris. with these lines, though, would have gone for Donald Trump by 18 points. Political analyst Eric Ham is here. All right, Eric, give us just the raw numbers. How many seats of an advantage have the Republicans given themselves by the way that they have redrawn their district lines? When you look at those two states you just mentioned, Tennessee and Florida, and then you throw in Texas, we're talking anywhere from 12 to 14 seats in terms of a total net that Republicans may have gained. But that does not take into account the fervor that we're seeing amongst Democrats when actually voting, as well as in terms of what we're seeing with voters who are moving away from President Donald Trump that voted for him in 2024. And I want to talk to you about that in a moment. But just when it comes to redistricting, Democrats do this also, of course. At least they've tried. They tried in the state of Virginia. There was a procedural error. There was a court challenge. Bottom line, the boundaries have stayed the same. But it worked for the Democrats in the state of California, the liberal-leaning state of California. Look at the 1st District here, up in the more rural, mountainous part of northeastern California. Watch how they've redrawn the lines here. Again, 2024, look again, more than a 30-point margin in favor of the Republicans. Fast forward to 2026, they still have lots of this mountainous area, more rural area, but they've also taken in parts of Sonoma County, which is very liberal, within spitting distance of the very, very liberal city of San Francisco. All right, so Eric, the Democrats are obviously fighting back here. How much have they limited the damage done by Republican gerrymandering? Well, when you take in California, which was ground zero for Democrats, for Republicans it was Texas, and we're talking about a total of maybe nine seats. So that's still a net gain for Republicans of about five seats, just on the raw numbers in terms of the gerrymandering that we saw take place on both sides. So before any votes have even been tabulated, you think the advantage is with the Republicans? Absolutely. Tell me about this blue wave. Everyone's predicting this blue wave for the Democrats. But realistically, I mean, what proportion of Republican-leaning voters do the Democrats have to pick off in order for this wave, so-called wave, to become reality for the House? Well, we've already saw this begin to crest in 2025 with special elections where Democrats were winning in very red states, places like Mississippi, Kentucky, even at the local level in districts where President Donald Trump won by plus 10, plus 15. And now we're continuing to see that play out. And what Republicans did not take into account is, as I mentioned, the further, Donald Trump won big with younger voters and with Latinos. And if you look at a state like Texas, much of those gains from gerrymandering are being wiped out because we're seeing record turnout among Republicans, I'm sorry, among Latinos, even outpacing their 2024 numbers. And in a state like Florida, it's those non-affiliated voters that could actually tip the balance towards Democrats. They are not affiliated with either Democrats or Republicans, but just on the trends that we're seeing in terms of actual voting, those voters could actually move blue, which would actually negate any gains in terms of gerrymandering. All right, we'll see what happens there. Cam, you'll be with us on Election Night. We appreciate the insight, as always. Jonah, we'll send it upstairs to you. Scott, so many numbers up in the air. Just a few days to go now till we know. And in the final straight, former President Barack Obama is becoming ever more prominent on the campaign trail for the Democrats. Rallying most recently in Georgia on Wednesday, Obama said America's values were on the ballot. He called the Republicans not serious people. I accused this administration based on the facts that they were engaging in unprecedented levels of corruption. They didn't say anything about that. The president wasn't even mad about the Saddam Hussein comparison. That part didn't bother him. But he was very upset about the Cheesecake Factory comments. He took great umbrage. He said, I didn't understand the work of the artisans in the White House. OK, Matthew Torres is in Columbus, Georgia, where Democratic Senator John Ossoff's challenger, Republican candidate Mike Collins, is going to appear soon. And Matthew, he'll have to counter the star power in the state, won't he, of Barack Obama just recently. What are people saying and what did they think of his visit? Well, Jonah, Republican leaders were quick to criticize President Barack Obama's visit here to Georgia, calling him a washed out politician that needed to come to the state to save the Democratic candidates from their own policies. Obviously, Democrats feel differently about this, spending last night focusing in on these Republican challengers and their close ties to President Donald Trump and his policies. One of those is the Senate candidate for the Senate race, which is Mike Collins. He's going to be having his campaign here in the next 30 minutes. His goal is to get those people to go out and vote. And what we are seeing here in Georgia is that same type of effort and message, not just from the political parties, but even in religious sectors in the state, including the Muslim community. When you think of Georgia, Islam may not immediately come to mind. But for these Muslim citizens, Georgia is on their mind. And uncle, are you coming with us to go vote afterwards? With election day just days away, the Georgia Muslim Voting Project is mobilizing voters, starting with morning prayer. All right, well, we have some resources here. Please check them out before you eat breakfast. set up. Volunteers have been helping Muslims register on how to cast their ballots while asking what matters most to them. These elections, they actually decide a lot about us and for us. For Imam Matib Ahmad, concerns of Islamophobia is on the ballot. There's a lot of hate that Muslims have to endure. So as a result, these elections, it's our way of saying, look, we don't agree with this Islamophobia. Georgia is predominantly Christian. Muslims make up more than 1% of the state's population. But it's a community that's growing. More than 100,000 registered Muslim voters now live in Georgia. Community leaders say it may be a small voting block, but it could play a deciding role in battleground states. Some of the races in recent past have been decided with 20,000 or 30,000 votes difference. The candidate won vote here can play a significant role. Is that surprising to you? Absolutely. Absolutely. If I can go back Thirteen years ago, there was no voice. That's why the group is organizing caravans from the mosque to polling places. If that's not enough, volunteers are taking their outreach to your door. Get your steps in today. Which house is next? Or your car. Are you in a hurry or can I talk to you for 30 seconds? Okay. Are you going to be voting? The project's executive director says Georgia's Muslim community is incredibly diverse, but many share similar concerns. Rising to the top are the conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and health care costs. Are the candidates tapping into the Muslim community enough? Are they appealing to the voters enough? I think we're starting to see candidates approaching our communities more often. We're seeing them show up to the mosque. A study from CARE this year found 41% of Muslims identify as independents. It's another reason the community says their voices shouldn't be overlooked. Matthew Torres, Al Jazeera, Suwannee, Georgia. In rural America, one big issue in this election is the price of fuel. Patty Culhane is in Davenport, Iowa, for us. You're in big farm country. The price of fuel, of course, is critical. But there's another issue that's got people worried. And it has to do with farming. And I have to tell you, we've been all over the state. We started in Des Moines, talked to people in Iowa City. now here in Davenport, and many of them say one of their top issues has to do with the water. Take a look. This is the Mississippi behind me, but it's not just the Mississippi they're concerned about. It's the creeks, it's the rivers, it's the groundwater. And why isn't that such a big concern here? Well, a lot of people tell me they're worried that this water is contaminated. The reason why, when it comes to new cancer cases, Iowa has the second highest cases of new cancer diagnoses in the entire country. Now, I've read many studies on this, and most of the studies say that it probably has to do with lifestyle factors, but a lot of the voters say they simply just don't believe that. They think because it goes back to the farming. About 80% of all the land here in Iowa is used for farming, and that means there's a lot of fertilizer that's put on the fields and a lot of waste that comes from the animals. Some of that ends up in the water. And they are very concerned that that is what's driving these cancer cases. And pretty much every forum, every debate that I've watched, that's one of the top questions to these candidates. What are you going to do to clean up the water? And a lot of people tell me how the candidates answer that is going to determine their vote. And how big of an issue is it? Well, it might explain why the Health and Human Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, is in the state campaign for Republicans this week. Patty, thank you. Iowa to Arizona now. It's one of the ultimate swing states, switching parties back and forth in the past three presidential elections. Well, the state's political volatility helps explain why both parties are fighting so hard for votes there. John Hendren reports from Phoenix in Maricopa County, where Arizona elections are often decided. The cactus-speckled rural expanses of Arizona are Republican country. Its desert landscape has long remained a GOP stronghold. But elections are decided here in fast-growing Maricopa County, which surrounds the state's largest metropolis, Phoenix. Arizonans voted for Donald Trump in 2016, then flipped from party to party in recent years, going for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and back to Trump in 2024. On election night, Arizona is going to prove that America does not belong to those who hate it. America belongs to those who love, love, love, love, love it. Each presidential candidate in recent years has won by taking Maricopa County, with 60% of the state's population. And with just days to go before the 2026 midterms, many voters here are decidedly unhappy with Trump's war with Iran, tariffs, and an affordability crisis. We've had two years and four years previous to that. It's a total disaster. We're retired, and every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on. But we have to wait and see, I guess. So we'll wait till next Tuesday and have a giant party. In 2022, Arizona flipped back, electing Democrats for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, the office that oversees voting. I'm focused on delivering results for Arizonans. Governor Katie Hobbs is battling Trump-backed Andy Biggs in her reelection bid. Let's turn Arizona red. Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you. Some Republicans are heeding that call. I think that there's a wave of socialists slash communists that is frightening, and I don't like where that's going. But Democrats are hoping for another blue sweep. Arizona is a true swing state. It has two Democratic senators and six of its nine House seats are held by Republicans. Two of those seats in polls are now either even or leaning toward Democrats. So Arizona could once again help decide which party is in power in Washington. One of those seats is in Maricopa County, where Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feeley. The other closely contested seat is in and around Tucson, where incumbent Juan Ciscomani is battling Democrat Joanna Mendoza. From Phoenix to the Tony suburb of Scottsdale, the two main parties battling for control of Congress will be watching vote-rich Maricopa County especially closely for signs as to which way Arizona will turn next. John Hendren, Al Jazeera, Scottsdale, Arizona. You've been watching the Midterms Roundup here on Al Jazeera. Thanks for giving us your time. Coming up at 18.30 GMT, that's 2.30 p.m. Eastern time here in the United States, this is America. We'll look at the major voting blocks in the U.S. and how both parties are trying to win their support.