James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we've just had an M7.1 solar flare.
Some are calling it moderate.
Some are calling it very strong.
With our atmosphere, we have to see what happens.
But at 1351 UTC time, 651 central time this morning,
we had a peak of an M7.1 solar flare,
an associated coronal mass ejection that turned
into a halo ejection meaning there's a hundred
percent chance that earth will
be impacted they're looking for an impact on the second
so we have one impact on the first i.e tomorrow
or later this evening and another one impacting
us on the second which means this explosion
and coronal mass ejection is moving very quickly
This was generated by Sunspot Region 4324.
We'll take a look at that.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is a start to the new year.
It's going to be a whopping year, especially the first month.
Noah says here, strong solar flare and coronal mass ejection inbound.
A coronal mass ejection is headed
for Earth following today's M7 class solar flare from Sunspot 4324.
NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory captured
the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash at 1350 UTC time
or 6.50 this morning Central Time here in the U.S.
Seen here, first look images from NOAA's Core 1 chronograph show
a halo coronal mass ejection headed almost directly for Earth.
We're looking for a G2 to G3 class geomagnetic storm,
which is going to be possible when the CME arrives on January 2nd.
Stay tuned for an improved forecast
as more chronographed data becomes available to improve the models.
Taking a look at GOES X-ray flux,
it's the strongest flare we've seen in several weeks.
And we have a 7.24 here,
could have been stronger than some say.
This was caught, again, on GOES X-ray Flux,
and it did happen right there when they said it did.
At about 1350 UTC time, making it about 7 o'clock
this morning, central time here in the U.S.
Heading over to SpaceWeatherLive.com,
we don't see that it's been assigned to a sunspot group yet,
But we do know that it was generated by AR4324,
like the last four actual flares have been.
We have a 25% chance of having an X-class solar flare today,
a 60% chance of an M-class solar flare.
That ship has now sailed, and we're running a strong C baseline,
so that should be at 100%.
that's 7.11 well again the strongest we've seen in 72 hours
but really in several weeks so we'll
be looking for a geomagnetic storm tomorrow
from the M4.5 solar flare that occurred just the other
day and then on the second from this solar flare
which well the coronal mass ejection must be
moving very quickly if they're expecting it
on the second this was generated by sunspot
AR4324 up here that is a beta gamma sunspot group we have four
of those earth facing as you can see
when i was about to swing around here uh we
also have four simple sunspots that are earth facing
totally we have on HMI intensogram eight sunspots earth facing
and more coming around the bend
All right, we actually get to see the explosion on LASCO C3.
Get ready.
Bam.
There it goes, folks, the halo.
See me.
That has about a 99.9% chance of hitting Earth.
You're also seeing Mars and,
of course, Venus about to conjunction,
superior conjunction, the backside of the sun.
Wow.
it's going to get crazy with that planetary lineup all right over
to our D region absorption
prediction center all the x-ray guns hit right over
the atlantic ocean and over well brazil
mostly parts of south america this is right where
the hole in our atmosphere is so it's no fun day
down there lots of radiation
and much higher levels than we hope or ever hoped for that's
almost exactly where the large hole in the atmosphere
is located something very mysterious
hit earth uh about an hour ago here uh
at at 6 16 utc time and you can see
that it had plasma at 48.08
centimeters cubed so this is very strong plasma
and i would think this is a mistake but i found
it on discover and on ace so something i don't
know what hit earth and it was very very dense
it was a cosmic wave whatever it may be it pounded us
and this is nowhere near the time of
well the time of the actual flare
so i don't know what this was it's a freak show i'll show it to
you on discover and ace over
to our discover satellite 1 million miles above earth orbiting
at lagrange point one our shields are up here above zero
and they're actually northernly pointed
if you will and let me see if i can find it uh 16 there's
that there's that dot i can't grab it
right there 48.08 right there let's see going up going right
to the 48.08 they won't let me grab
it there what could it have been well something uh
and it also pushed the solar winds way up here
as well over 600 kilometers per second i don't know what it
was but you can see it came right
there and that's exactly what
that is that same spike we saw on the other one we have
solar wind speed increasing we have plasma decreasing
and we have temperatures well all
over the place taking a look at ACE real-time space weather satellite
also 1 million miles
above earth orbit at lagrange point one same
as discovered just much older and what do we see
we see that same spike at 4808 right there it's real
that's exactly 616 as you can see there
it's real it just happened i don't know what it
is it pushed the solar winds way up here to 600
right above 600 kilometers per second whatever it
was and our temperature seems to be increasing
really on both Discover and ACE our shields are north
and our shields are up so we're in good
shape right now if we would be hit by that first CME right
this second well we wouldn't see much
at all maybe a G1 if our shields point south uh
a go in this direction here and the red line goes
below zero well then our shields would
be considered in my opinion completely down and
we'd be in for heck to say the least probably
a G3 strong geomagnetic storm if we do have that
Please send Aurora Borealis pictures
into
[email protected].
We will have a contest and a giveaway on the night of the 2nd
or the night of the 3rd,
depending on how things go down.
And I will continue to remind you guys of that.
This should be a strong G3 geomagnetic storm.
the second M7.11 solar flare,
so we should be able to get some good pictures.
Taking a look at SDO HMI magnetogram image,
well, SDO is back up, fabulous information
for us, we're going to take a look
at the backside of our sun in just a moment, you
can see that this is really white over black,
so this is a very complex sunspot here, I'd
be real worried about this sunspot all day today
and this is the sunspot that just produced the
well M7.11 solar flare to me it looks like black over white
which is reverse polarity as well
this is white over black regular polarity
in the northern hemisphere it should always be white over
black in the southern hemisphere it should always be black over white
and we're not seeing what we
want to see here we're seeing much more complex sunspots right over
to SOHO 284 angstroms well
this was taken today we're back on schedule here about 6:06
this morning central time and this is
right before our 2343 pops off
and this is the sunspot i'm most worried about directly earth
facing we had that small coronal hole moved through we should
be seeing some solar winds coming in
right about now into tomorrow but we
also had that m4.5 that created a coronal mass ejection that's
inbound so we've got three items
on board i don't see any terrible sunspots coming around the limb
currently i see some going uh bye bye remember
the that is where our geomagnetic connection to
our sun is on that outgoing limb
so there's always a chance if there's a big eruption on that outgoing
limb the energy will trace down the geomagnetic connection
and hit earth here of course these are
much more worrisome they're directly earth facing
and again i see nothing coming around i will show
you the back side and i'll show you the up
and coming line up all right headed over to SDO
oh look at some composites of the back side
of the sun this looks beautiful compared to what
it looked like yesterday especially
with our superior conjunction really lining up on around
the fifth sixth and seventh
and we'll show you all that next but this is looking good
no serious sunspots uh seem to be coming around we're gonna deal
with ones that are earth-facing
for about four or five more days
which will bring us right into that period all right this is the
perfect conjunction here it's going
to be on the 5th january 5th as you can see here the moon's
going to be right in between jupiter and earth
and we're going to have a geomagnetic connection to
Iris, Uranus and Jupiter
and this lineup is going to go through to Venus and Mars
now we'll take a look at the fourth, it's not bad either
and the third and the second, this is all
very dangerous situations and past the fifth on the sixth
and seventh we're still in a dangerous
situation here so there's a time period we're going
to have a what's called superior conjunction
where both Mars and Venus lined up perfectly with the Earth, the moon
and Jupiter and that's going to be
right around the fifth I would say that's probably the go day
but i'd give myself some room uh on
either side of the fifth maybe 48 hours or more
because there's going to be a lot a lot of tension
on earth's tectonic plates and on the sun itself
so we would look for an uptick in solar activity
an uptick in earthquake activity
and even an uptick in volcanic activity and we learned all
this from well Dr. Nilsson at RCA gotta read
the book lots of love folks please please remember
take aurora borealis or aurora australis pictures on the first
or second whenever the
night lights up and let's have a contest
and there will be prizes god bless please give us
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and always remember that anything's possible
in bizarro world god bless you all