Canada's SURPRISING Immigration Plan for 2027 to 2029

835,215. That's how many people Canada has invited to apply for permanent residency from January to October of 2026. And that's already more than all of 2025 numbers, more than all of 2024, and more than all of 2023. And in a few weeks' time, the government is going to announce its immigration plan for the next three years. And a lot of the headlines are going to say one word. Now, guess what that one word will be in the comments now. But now that you're here, I'm going to show you what the government has already told us, though not always obviously. I'll also tell you what I think is coming in the plan and how sure I am about each fact. And I'll introduce you to three people, possibly like you, taking you through their journey and maybe it can help you work out where you stand and what you can do. I'm not going to tell you what to do but I think that by the end you will already know. Now the last three years have been brutal with regards to Canada immigration. We all know the story but let's start with permanent residents because that's the number that everybody is watching out for. In 2024 Canada admitted about 484,000 people as permanent residents. Last year, it was around 393,000 people. This year, the target is 380,000 and the plan for the next year is also 380,000. 380,000 is about nine-tenths of one percent of Canada's population. The government's own stated goal is to keep that number under 1% after 2027. Okay, what about temporary residents? In 2025, the plan called for about 674,000 new temporary residents, students, and workers combined. This year, that number is 385,000 and then 370,000 in each of the next two years. new students went from a planned 305,900 down to 155,000. And in an interview at the end of September, the prime minister said that new student arrivals are down about 60% and temporary foreign workers are down about 50%. That hurts. I'm not going to pretend that it doesn't hurt because if you're still overseas planning to come as a student, that pathway just got a lot narrower. And it's okay to be upset about it. But let's look at it another way. I'm going to take you all to Nigeria for a bit. Now, if you haven't been to Nigeria before, please just come along. You're going to love it. If you have ever been to Lagos, Nigeria, do you know the downfall bus? That yellow mini bus? The one that the bus conductor is hanging out of the door shouting, oh shodi, oh shodi, yaba, yaba, one chance. You know that bus? Yes, that one. Now, on that bus, some people stand, some people sit, and the conductor can pack people like sardines in that bus. But let's say the government has a new rule that you cannot pack people like sardines anymore. It's not healthy. If your bus has 25 seats, you can only carry 25 people at the maximum. No squeezing. So, even though there are many people at the bus stop that the bus would normally have picked up, now, because of the new rule, they can only carry 25 people. And to make matters worse, they can only stop at certain bus stops. So some people who even could have gotten seats will have to come down because the bus will not be stopping at their bus stop. You get it? Now, I'm not sure that such a rule can work in Nigeria, but I really wanted to use Nigeria in my illustration. But anyway, that's what's happening in the express entry in 2026. Now from January through to the 1st of October, IRCC held 59 express entry draws. not one of them was a general draw not one every single round was called for a specific purpose those 25 seats on the bus went to the Canadian Experience Class that's people who've already already worked in Canada they got 17 draws and about 55,000 invitations which is about 41 percent of the draws. Now, French speakers got 10 draws and 50,500 invitations. That's 37%. Now, if you put even just those two together, that's about four out of every five invitations this year. And of course, then healthcare had 11,500, trades had 6,500, provincial nominees had about 9,300. And now, look at what each stop costs for people to get on the bus. The Canadian experience class to get on the bus has been costing about 518 to 521 CRS calls lately. And it has moved between 507 and 523 all year. Healthcare is costing about 475 to get on the bus. Trades, about 476. and the French stock across all the 10 rounds calls between 382 and 420. You see, you can get on the bus, but the price for one stop is about 100 points lower than the price for another stop. Same system, same year, same Canada. And this isn't even a quiet year. By the 1st of October last year, IRCC had issued about 67,000 invitations. This year is 135,000. roughly double the number so the bus is still working it's just that the conductor just isn't calling your bus stop and if you've been standing waiting for a stop that nobody is calling you can wait there all day and the bus will drive past you even if the bus isn't full that is food for thoughts and we'll come back to that soon but right now i'm going to introduce you to three people first meet Teresa. She is a healthcare aide in Ontario, about 14 months into the job and her score is about 470. Now for the last year, she has watched the Canadian Experience Class Numbers February 18, 520, 521 and she has told herself, I'm about 50 points short. It's over. Maybe next year I'll get lucky. But rather than focus on the CEC or the PNP, she has a great chance in the healthcare draws. In September alone, IRCC invited 3,500 healthcare and social services candidates and the cutoff was 475. So Teresa is not 50 points short like she believes. She's only about five points short, assuming her job is on the eligible list for healthcare, which is the first thing that she would have to check. And five points is a completely different problem from 50 points. Don't you agree? And then there's Bruno. He is a software developer in Toronto. His score is 441. He has strong English scores. He has a great job, but no French. In the current state of things, 441 is not as competitive as it was before. So what can Bruno do? The first thing is that he has a chance in the OINP because his job is a tier two job. But there's also one bus he can get off. And that bus stop is the French bus stop. And the highest that it has scored all year was 420. If Bruno had French at the level that that category asked for, his 441 isn't a 100 points short. It's actually 20 points over the score. Now, I know that Nigerians just turned off because how are we going to learn French? Abi, I get you. I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that French is a weekend project it is not for most people who are starting French from zero it's going to take you months a lot of those months are going to be very difficult and very boring but hold two things side by side a few months of 20 minutes a day against waiting at the bus stop where the bus will probably never stop to pick you up which one would you choose okay and then there's Mike he has been four years in Canada he works in logistics his score is 505 he's already in the biggest lane the Canadian Experience Class lane the last three rounds have called at 521 519 and 518 so he's only 13 points to 16 points short but here's what he has never done he has never retaken his english language test to see if he can push it a bit higher because a better language result is points on the table that he hasn't picked up yet. Just a handful of points is the whole game. It can make a lot of difference. Now listen, I cannot promise that any of these three people will get an invitation. Nobody can promise that. What I can show you is that 50,500 invitations went to French speakers this year. 11,500 went to healthcare and those lines move every couple of weeks. The bus is getting to those bus stops. The proof is in the draws table. So again, I'll ask you and I'll let it sit with you for a little bit. Which of these three people is closest to your own situation? Let me know in the comments. And even if you're outside Canada, that bus can still pick you up. It is still stopping at the French bus stop, it's stopping at healthcare bus stop and many of those in the different category groups. Yes, the bus is stopping there. The seats in the bus allocated to those people may be few, but seats are still there, okay? So that is what has happened. Now, let's talk about what could happen. What is coming? I know that I made a video a few days ago saying that I think that Canada will increase immigration soon, maybe in 2027. But please, quick disclaimer, nobody knows for sure, except those people that are actually making the rules. But we do know that early in the month of November, there's likely to be some announcement about the next few years concerning the immigration plan in Canada. What I'm saying now are my own predictions, and I will tell you how sure I am about each one of these predictions. Number one is that permanent residents will hold steady at $380,000 for 2027, 2028, and possibly 2029. I am fairly confident of that point. The government keeps saying that it wants permanent residents under 1% of the population after 2027 and 380,000 seats at about nine-tenths of a percent of the population of Canada. However, at the end of September, the prime minister told the New York Times that the question now is when to resume a controlled increase in the population of Canada. He also said that the economy is feeling the lack of growth and population grew just half a percent over the last year. But honestly, that does not mean that there will be a big jump in immigration numbers this November. The increase, I believe, will be gradual and may focus on moving more temporary workers to permanent residency. Now, the second prediction is that temporary numbers will still stay low. Students may be around 200,000, maybe, and workers may also be around 220,000 because the government has promised to get temporary resident numbers under 5% of the population by the end of the next year. So I am fairly confident of this one. The third one is that there will be more French draws. The government has committed to 12% of permanent residents outside Quebec being French-speaking by 2029. The current plan has 9.5% for 2027 and 10.5% for 2028. At 380,000, 12% is just about 45,600 people in a year. So I'm very confident that the French draws will continue to keep going. Number four, the economic share will stay around 64% and express entry keeps being called bus stop after bus stop. Now, I would be very surprised to see big general draws come back. But honestly, what God cannot do does not exist. Number five, the number that I would watch most closely is the federal high-skilled number. In the current plan, it's about 111,000 for 2027. Now, if it goes up, that means there'll be more invitations. But if it drops, the number of seats on that bus could become fewer. However, if the permanent residence numbers comes in below 380,000, that would mean that I have misread the mood of the government on immigration and I'll tell you straight off. So, on Announcement Day, I want you to write down four things. The 2029 Permanent Resident Number, that's number one. The Federal High-Skilled Number, that's number two. The French Percentage, that's number three. And the Provincial Nominee Number, which sits at about 92,500 for 2027 right now. Now, those four numbers will tell you which bus stop that bus will be picking people from and which bus stop it will be dropping them off. Now, I am not giving any immigration advice, but I can show you what the people who are ready tend to have in common. And I'll tell you the three questions that you'll be asking that those people will be asking themselves right now. Now, think of it as these three questions. You don't have to do anything today. Just answer these three questions honestly. Question number one, which bus stop will my job qualify for? Is it healthcare? Is it trades? Is it transport? Is it education, STEM, or senior management? Go and open the list of the express entry categories on the IRCC website and check your own job code against it. It is free for you to do. And if you already work in Canada and you have a year of skilled work experience, you may be sitting in the biggest lane, the Canadian Experience Class lane, without even knowing it. The second question is, how far am I from that bus stop? Make sure you check your score in the official IRCC CRS calculator and then you set it next to the cutoffs that you know for your own occupation and see where you stand. Now, the third question is, what is the cheapest points move that I haven't made? Also known as, how can I increase my points or how can I increase my chances? For some people, it's just a language test to be tested. For some, it's checking whether their province is running a draw for their job or not. And for some others, it is the one-time measure for up to 33,000 skilled permit holders to move faster to permanent residency, running 2026 and 2027 only with a focus on in-demand sectors and rural areas. And for some other people, it's French, which is the longest highway that this bus is taking. Now, put the cost and the reward next to each other. The cost is maybe taking a test that the test fee you will pay, maybe a few months of daily practice for that test, maybe join in my IELTS prep toolkit to help you score better. And if you want to grab it, the link is in the description. But check out the rewards. The reward is moving from a stop where no bus is stopping to a stop that gives you a real shot at an invitation for permanent residence in a country that you've already given years to or a country you've probably been dreaming about. Now, one thing that I have to say plainly is that I know it's tough. I know I am on this journey with you and it can be exhausting, but there is a goal and I just need you to keep your eyes on the goal. You have come this far. Honestly, you can finish well. Now, let me say one last thing and then I'll let you go. Canada isn't opening up and it isn't closing. It is just picking specific bus stops. The immigration plan comes out in a few weeks and a lot of people are going to be shocked. Either way, you don't have to be one of them. Now, if you want to go deeper on how these bus stops work and how to read your own score against who the bus is picking, I can explain it to you plainly. It is not immigration advice, but it is just me, someone who's been on this same bus stop sharing what I did and what I learned. And you might spot one or two things as well. Make sure you book that call with me. Now, I'll come back with a review after the immigration announcement is done. and then we'll see how close I was with my predictions or how not close. We'll see. And please, very importantly, look after yourself. This stuff is heavy and you carry it every single day and I know it is draining. But please remain grateful. This too will pass. There will be a way or there will be a way. Anyhow, okay? Now, this video on the screen is another explainer that can shine some light on the path of achieving your Canadian dream. Check it out next and don't forget to join the IELTS prep toolkit if you are taking the language test soon or if you know anyone that is taking it. The link is in the description. My name is Shea Obasi and this is the Canadian dream. I'll see you in the next one.