Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated

For more analysis on these Israeli elections, let's bring in our international affairs commentator Douglas Herbert. Hi, Doug. So we mentioned the strong showing of the two leading Arab parties, high voter turnout out there. How might this shape any election, any coalition to come? The leader of the left in the Knesset has said the opposition needs to work with these parties. Yeah, look, this is conundrum time, right? In Israeli politics, we've seen it time and again, right? It's all about cobbling these coalitions together. Here is the dilemma right now. You have, on the one hand, the hardest right, most ultra-religious, ultra-nationalist, ultra-orthodox ruling government coalition in Israel's history under Netanyahu. Its survival right now, Netanyahu has been very clear, he will not work with Arab parties, Arab-Israeli parties. He is counting on defections, perhaps, from the so-called Jewish-Zionist parties, which are a member of the opposition bloc. So you have that on the one hand. On the other hand, you have Gadi Eisenkot at the head of a coalition, which is also short of the majority needed to form that 61 seat majority in the Knesset. He also has to find a way to reach that 61 number. As of now, he doesn't have it unless, unless most likely he is willing to work with and reach out to the Arab-Israeli parties who have had a supreme showing in this election, almost doubling their seats from the last election. If you're to believe the early polls, the final tally isn't in, but they could have 18 or even 19 seats. And that could be the difference between having a governing majority. Now, it's interesting, some of the headlines in Israel today, if you look at them, they show the Eisenkot coalition, the opposition bloc, they're actually saying, well, the opposition actually has 65 seats, which would be a majority. The thing is they're adding in the Arab parties, the Arab-Israeli parties, if they were to enter into the opposition bloc, form a grand coalition there, They would handily, handily be able to beat Netanyahu's bloc and form a government. Like you said, there's only sort of one party right now that is openly, explicitly calling for Eisenkot to reach across that divide and bring in the Arab parties. And it's interesting, Haaretz, which is a left-leaning Israeli paper, is making the same argument, you know, basically saying if Eisenkot keeps insisting on being able to govern with what he calls a Jewish or Zionist majority block, he's excluding, he's playing into Netanyahu's hands, because Netanyahu makes the same noise as a racist, as they see it, approach to campaigning, that you exclude these Arab-Israeli parties. You only form coalitions with a, quote, Jewish-Zionist block. And they're saying, if you really want to embody the ideas of a democratic opposition to Netanyahu, if you really want to embrace Israeli society and all its diversity, as was enshrined in Israel's founding 1948 charter, that means reaching across that divide and working with these Arab-Israeli parties, even if there are some aspects of them that are anathema to you and some parties within your bloc. That's where we are right now. If Eisenkot were able to actually drop the exclusively Jewish Zionist wording in his sort of victory speech, if he were to find a way to work with these Arab-Israeli parties, he would most likely be able to form that governing coalition. But this is Israeli politics. This is hard right Israeli politics in an Israeli society that has lurched to the right. And for the vast majority of Israelis, even in the opposition right now, talk of cooperation, reaching across that divide to work with Arab Israeli parties is just something that isn't done. It's unclear whether the Arab parties here are either kingmakers or getting in the way of forming a government. In the meantime, Netanyahu stays on as interim caretaker prime minister. And we could see war, right? He's doubling down in his security agenda. What does Netanyahu have to do right now? He has to basically try to secure defections from Jewish parties within the opposition block to gain that majority. He's still short of the majority as well. There's a stalemate here, a political gridlock. And how do you do that? Well, you do that by campaigning and doubling down on everything you campaigned on up until now, which is no, we will not work with Arab governments. And yes, we I am the prime minister that is going to keep this country secure, even if most of this election for the opposition was based on the fact that Netanyahu seemed to be signally absent during the greatest security breakdown in Israel's modern history in the form of the October 7th, 2023 attacks. paradoxically Netanyahu has pitched himself in his campaign on being the man who will protect Israelis in times of crisis so in the lead-up to this campaign reports that he had reached out to Trump saying we should strike Iran now Trump reportedly rebuffing uh Netanyahu so that didn't happen at least not before but could it happen now why not uh it would show that Netanyahu is the only man who could supposedly protect Israelis from what he has always touted as the Iranian quote threat uh remember that that that artificially uh the ai generated a picture of a nuclear mushroom cloud above tel aviv that uh that netanyahu's uh campaign posted in the run-up to this election yeah that speaks exactly to his message that it's either me or the highway either me or nuclear oblivion for israel i'm the one who will protect you israelis from nuclear oblivion and he's already getting hard doubling down in that in that message uh with the the specter looming of, yeah, resumption with his ally Donald Trump, who weighed in on this election, said that he had a lot to do. Trump had a lot to do with the fact that Netanyahu is in a relatively good position right now. Going back at it with Iran, starting up another war. Hey, why not? Because that's Israel's security and doubling down to make sure that Israel does not succumb to the Iranian threat. It's going to be a very volatile and a very dangerous period right now for Israel. And it's going to be also a reckoning time for the opposition as they try to decide, is there a way they could let Arab parties, Arab-Israeli parties into their bloc and work with them? Concessions and compromises will have to be made. Douglas Herbert, our international affairs commentator, with that analysis.